IRAN ASSET STANDOFF IS BLOCKING THE DOHA DEAL

Tehran sent its entire negotiating leadership to Qatar in one trip, which signals this is the closing stretch, not a courtesy call. 2TTM Iran negotiation team travels to Qatar to continue diplomacy The sticking point is sequencing: Iran wants the $12 billion in frozen Qatari assets released and the US naval blockade lifted before it fully reopens Hormuz. 6AAM Report says proposed Iran framework deal envisions phased reopening of Strait of Hormuz Washington's position is effectively the opposite: Iran delivers first, then gets relief. 6AAM Report says proposed Iran framework deal envisions phased reopening of Strait of Hormuz Rubio said Monday a deal could come together that day. It did not. 12BBM Rubio says 'solid' Iran deal may come on Monday

Rubio has said publicly the strait will be "completely open, no tolls." 3TOI Iranian officials in Qatar for talks on Hormuz as Tehran, US downplay chance of deal Iran's foreign ministry says Hormuz governance is not even in the memorandum of understanding and will be decided separately by coastal states. 11SPK Red Lines in Water: Iran Removes Strait of Hormuz From Memorandum With US The IRGC's spokesperson added that Iran retains "absolute sovereign" control regardless of any agreement. 14FOX Mass tanker blackout rattles Gulf ahead of 1.35M-barrel oil transfer amid US-Iran talks: firm A deal signed with this ambiguity unresolved does not end the fight over the strait, it just defers it by 60 days with a crisis already loaded in the chamber.

Two Israeli officials told Reuters that Netanyahu has acknowledged to confidants that Israel "has no maneuver to influence the president right now." 7TOI Netanyahu admits to aides he has little influence over Trump on Iran, sources That is the prime minister whose political identity was built on killing Iran's nuclear program conceding in private that he cannot stop a deal Israeli commentators are already calling worse than the JCPOA he famously denounced in Congress. 1GDN ‘If Iran gets a bomb it will be Bibi’s’: Trump’s deal outline sparks alarm in Israel One Israeli columnist's summary: "If they do come to possess a nuclear bomb, it will be Bibi's bomb." 1GDN ‘If Iran gets a bomb it will be Bibi’s’: Trump’s deal outline sparks alarm in Israel The damage to the US-Israel relationship is being described in Israeli media as the conflict's most enduring consequence. 1GDN ‘If Iran gets a bomb it will be Bibi’s’: Trump’s deal outline sparks alarm in Israel

Israel killed three people in southern Lebanon Monday, ordered ten villages to evacuate, and struck areas near Tyre. 9AJE Israel kills three in attacks on Lebanon, issues more displacement orders A Hezbollah drone hit a home in Metula, prompting Finance Minister Smotrich to demand Beirut strikes and announce $693 million for new drone defenses, while Ben Gvir told Netanyahu to "bang on Trump's desk" and restart full warfare. 8TOI Hezbollah drone hits Metula home amid wave of attacks, nobody hurt; ministers urge escalation More than 3,000 people have been killed in Lebanon since fighting resumed March 2. 9AJE Israel kills three in attacks on Lebanon, issues more displacement orders The far right is pushing hardest right now because Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington are scheduled this week, which is the pressure point they want to blow up.

Maritime intelligence firm Windward AI detected a mass AIS blackout near Fujairah on Sunday, consistent with electronic warfare or deliberate vessel shutdowns. 14FOX Mass tanker blackout rattles Gulf ahead of 1.35M-barrel oil transfer amid US-Iran talks: firm In the same window, a single VLCC moved 1.35 million barrels to South Korea, the first significant flow signal out of the UAE's main oil hub since the war began. 14FOX Mass tanker blackout rattles Gulf ahead of 1.35M-barrel oil transfer amid US-Iran talks: firm One cargo is not a reopened strait, but it suggests the physical infrastructure is being tested while the deal is still being written. Separately, Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 megaprojects including The Line are being quietly wound down, with oil price uncertainty from the war breaking the financial model the whole thing depended on. 13BBC How Saudi Arabia's spending spree reached the end of the line