THE MOU: REAL FRAMEWORK, REAL GAPS, UNCLEAR WHICH WINS

Trump says the deal includes full Hormuz reopening, no tolls, Iran clears its mines 14APW Iran signals progress in talks as US considers military strike 9GDN What may be included in proposed Iran ceasefire deal?. Iran's Tasnim says ships return to pre-war transit numbers within 30 days, and Iran keeps unspecified "sovereign rights" over the strait 10AAM Iran says potential memorandum with US includes end of war on all fronts: Tasnim. Those are not messaging differences. They describe incompatible legal realities. The uranium gap is sharper still: the New York Times reported Iran agreed to hand over its highly enriched stockpile, citing two US officials; Reuters, citing senior Iranian sources, said Tehran agreed to no such thing 9GDN What may be included in proposed Iran ceasefire deal?. Trump has promised Israel the uranium goes. The text will either resolve this or paper over it, and papering over it guarantees a crisis inside the 60-day window.

Mohsen Rezai, a senior member of Iran's Expediency Council and former IRGC commander, said explicitly that if the US "enters the Persian Gulf," Iran would break the naval blockade, respond with force, and potentially withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 3SPK Iran Could Withdraw From NPT If US Attacks Persian Gulf - Official 7PTV Leader’s advisor: Iran will break US naval blockade, exit NPT if attacked again. "Do you know what will happen to you if we withdraw? So, don't commit suicide," he said 7PTV Leader’s advisor: Iran will break US naval blockade, exit NPT if attacked again. This is the sharpest nuclear leverage Iran has deployed publicly since the war began, and the timing is deliberate: Tehran is reminding Washington what the alternative looks like while the final clauses are still being negotiated.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir approved plans to maintain seven to eight kilometres of Lebanese territory, establish permanent outposts inside villages, and block both Hezbollah fighters and civilians from returning 2TOI IDF draws up Lebanon plans amid concern Iran deal could curb fighting with Hezbollah. The proposed deal reportedly limits Israeli action to responses against Hezbollah attacks only 2TOI IDF draws up Lebanon plans amid concern Iran deal could curb fighting with Hezbollah. That constraint is directly incompatible with what Zamir signed off on. Netanyahu convened his security cabinet Sunday evening on exactly this tension. Whatever comes out of that meeting will tell you whether Israel intends to accept the deal's terms or challenge them before the ink is dry.

The US has lost up to 30 MQ-9 Reaper drones since February, worth nearly $1 billion, cutting the operational fleet from above 189 aircraft to roughly 135 against the Air Force's own stated minimum floor of 189 6RTN Iran wiped out fifth of US Reaper drone fleet, Bloomberg. Total losses also include four F-15Es, one F-35A, and seven KC-135 tankers, and Operation Epic Fury's cost has risen to $29 billion from a projected $25 billion 6RTN Iran wiped out fifth of US Reaper drone fleet, Bloomberg. Separately, Japan will wait up to two extra years for Tomahawk missiles it already ordered because the US is replenishing its own stocks first, having burned through a quarter to a third of total inventory in this war 11SPK US Delays Tomahawk Delivery to Japan by Up to 2 Years, Report. Every US ally is running the same calculation right now.

Omani Foreign Minister Albusaidi met Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi in Muscat on Sunday specifically to discuss "principles governing freedom of navigation" under international law 4AAM Oman, Iran discuss principles governing navigation through Strait of Hormuz under int'l law. The meeting carried a verbal message from Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi on the US-Iran talks. Oman is not waiting for a deal to be signed before positioning itself in whatever strait governance structure emerges. That is either constructive mediation or Muscat hedging, probably both.