THE DEAL TRUMP ANNOUNCED HAS NOT HAPPENED

Trump publicly told ships to head home and described Iran as having agreed to open Hormuz and destroy its enriched uranium. None of it materialized. The Situation Room meeting ran two hours and produced nothing 12TOI Trump meeting to make ‘final determination’ on Iran deal said to end with no decision. Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed at the Shangri-La summit in Singapore that "the blockade is very much still in place" 3AAM US blockade of Strait of Hormuz remains in place, says Pentagon chief. Trump's version of events and reality are currently quite far apart, which is not nothing when markets are already pricing a reopening as near-certain.

Iran is now conditioning the continuation of talks on the immediate return of $12 billion in frozen assets 9MHR Iran demands immediate return of $12 bln to continue talks. That is not the same as asking for asset returns as part of a final deal. That is Iran charging an entry fee just to stay at the table. Trump said publicly "no money will be exchanged, until further notice." The two positions have no obvious middle ground, and neither side has signaled movement. Watch for anything from Treasury, Witkoff, or Pakistan's mediating channel on this specific point.

US intelligence suspects an Iranian soldier used a Chinese-made Manpads to shoot down an F-15E Strike Eagle over southwestern Iran last month, and that Beijing may have also supplied Iran the YLC-8B radar, built to track stealth aircraft 2CRD US officials suspect Iran used Chinese missile to bring down F-15E warplane: Report. Trump previously said Xi personally promised him China would not supply military hardware to Iran. Recent assessments suggest Beijing may be planning to send more air defense weapons soon 2CRD US officials suspect Iran used Chinese missile to bring down F-15E warplane: Report. China called it a "groundless smear." Whether Washington formally confronts Beijing or quietly lets it go will tell you a lot about where this administration's priorities actually sit.

The Wall Street Journal reports the UAE conducted dozens of airstrikes inside Iran, including after the April 8 ceasefire, hitting the Asaluyeh petrochemical complex, the Lavan refinery, and positions near Hormuz 5CRD UAE secretly bombed Iran dozens of times alongside Israel, US: Report10TOI UAE struck Iran dozens of times during war and amid truce, including with Israel, WSJ. Israel and the US provided intelligence. Saudi Arabia privately pressured Washington to make the UAE stop, worried about regional energy infrastructure and economic blowback 10TOI UAE struck Iran dozens of times during war and amid truce, including with Israel, WSJ. The coalition against Iran was broader than anyone acknowledged publicly, it kept operating past the ceasefire, and it is now fracturing. Make of that what you will.

Vance told reporters the US goal is to "substantially set back" Iran's nuclear program "over the long term," which is notably different from the war's stated objective of ensuring Iran can never have a nuclear weapon 14APW Vance seems to move goal posts for achieving one of Trump’s key objectives for launching the war. AP flagged the language shift. If Vance is saying the quiet part out loud, it is a reasonable signal that the administration has already internally accepted a deal that falls short of permanent elimination. That matters for how you read whatever gets announced as a "win" when this eventually concludes.