IRAN IS BUILDING A BUREAUCRACY TO OWN THE STRAIT

The Persian Gulf Strait Authority published a formal map this week claiming a "controlled maritime zone" across Hormuz that extends into Omani and Emirati waters, requiring ships to get permission before transiting 5TOI Iran moves to broaden its control over Hormuz, infuriating its Gulf neighbors and the US. Rubio called it unacceptable at the NATO foreign ministers meeting in Sweden 3GDN Marco Rubio: Trump ‘disappointment’ with Nato will be discussed at summit, five Gulf states wrote to the IMO in protest 6GDN Uranium and control of strait of Hormuz key as talks to end US-Iran war continue, and Trump said the strait must be "open and free" 5TOI Iran moves to broaden its control over Hormuz, infuriating its Gulf neighbors and the US. Notice who is not in that IMO letter: Oman, which Iran is cutting in on the fee revenue and which has reportedly shifted from dismissal toward at least tentative consideration of the scheme 5TOI Iran moves to broaden its control over Hormuz, infuriating its Gulf neighbors and the US. If Oman signs on, Iran has a two-state co-governance structure over the world's most important oil chokepoint, and the "illegal under international law" argument becomes very hard to enforce without shooting at a US-aligned sovereign state.

Leadership yanked the vote Thursday rather than let it happen 9TOI Republicans delay US House vote to halt Iran war that was on verge of passing12APW Democrats hope for breakthrough as House takes another Iran war vote. Democrats say they had the votes: a previously dissenting Democrat flipped, the last attempt ended in a tie, and this one was not going to. Combined with the Senate's 50-47 vote earlier this week, Trump is now one scheduling decision away from a bipartisan war powers rebuke. The pulled vote was not a procedural move, it was an acknowledgment that Republican solidarity is cracking, and it will not be easier to hold after a holiday weekend of $4.55 per gallon gas.

Over 200 THAAD interceptors and more than 100 SM-3 and SM-6 missiles were used during the war 10TOI US used over half its THAAD interceptors defending Israel during Iran war, report. One US official told the Washington Post that the US will need even more if fighting resumes, because Israel has sent some of its own batteries for maintenance. Another official said bluntly that "Israel is not capable of fighting and winning wars on its own." The Pentagon denied a burden-sharing problem. The math says otherwise.

Drone production facilities are back online, and some US estimates put full drone capability restoration at six months out 11CNN RAPIDLY REBUILDING MILITARY. Russia and China are both helping, with Beijing reportedly supplying missile components (denied by China's foreign ministry) 11CNN RAPIDLY REBUILDING MILITARY. Every week of diplomacy that does not produce a deal is a week Iran uses to reconstitute the arsenal the bombing was supposed to permanently destroy.

The EU revised its full-year Brent forecast up 46 percent to $91.20, cut eurozone growth to 0.9 percent, and raised inflation to 3.0 percent 7TTM Strait of Hormuz closure shakes Europe: Oil price forecast soars 46%. In the US, Gallup's Economic Confidence Index sits at -45, with only 16 percent rating the economy good or excellent 4AJE Economic confidence plummets in US amid Iran war, poll shows. Pump prices at $4.55 over Memorial Day weekend are the most visible number, and they are visible to every voter filling a tank this weekend. Brent is holding just above $103, but the Oil Volatility Index jumped to 76.27 from 72.98 in a single day. Prices are stable; fear of disruption is not.