THE DEAL IS IN DOHA, BUT THE GAPS ARE STILL REAL

• Israel has been locked out of the negotiations entirely, and Netanyahu privately acknowledges he cannot change that. Two Israeli officials with direct knowledge of the prime minister's private conversations told Reuters that Netanyahu has admitted to confidants that Israel "has no maneuver to influence the president right now" 7TOI Netanyahu admits to aides he has little influence over Trump on Iran, sources. This is the Israeli prime minister, whose political survival was premised on destroying Iran's nuclear programme, conceding in private that he cannot stop a deal that Israeli commentators are calling "far worse" than the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) he famously denounced in Congress 1GDN ‘If Iran gets a bomb it will be Bibi’s’: Trump’s deal outline sparks alarm in Israel. The damage to the US-Israel relationship, particularly the bipartisan support Israel has relied on for decades, is being described in Israeli media as the conflict's most enduring cost 1GDN ‘If Iran gets a bomb it will be Bibi’s’: Trump’s deal outline sparks alarm in Israel. One Israeli columnist put it plainly: "If they do come to possess a nuclear bomb, it will be Bibi's bomb" 1GDN ‘If Iran gets a bomb it will be Bibi’s’: Trump’s deal outline sparks alarm in Israel.

• Lebanon is getting worse, not better, even as the deal inches forward. Israel killed three people in southern Lebanon in Monday drone strikes, ordered ten villages to evacuate ahead of further strikes, and struck multiple towns including areas of Tyre 9AJE Israel kills three in attacks on Lebanon, issues more displacement orders. A Hezbollah drone hit a home in the northern Israeli border community of Metula, prompting Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to demand strikes on Beirut and announce approval of NIS 2 billion (roughly $693 million) for new drone countermeasures 8TOI Hezbollah drone hits Metula home amid wave of attacks, nobody hurt; ministers urge escalation. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir called on Netanyahu to "bang on Trump's desk" and restart high-intensity warfare in Lebanon 8TOI Hezbollah drone hits Metula home amid wave of attacks, nobody hurt; ministers urge escalation. More than 3,000 people have been killed in Lebanon since fighting resumed on March 2 9AJE Israel kills three in attacks on Lebanon, issues more displacement orders. Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington are scheduled for later this week, which is why the far right is pushing hardest right now.

• A mass AIS blackout near Fujairah two days ago rattled Gulf shipping even as a single tanker moved 1.35 million barrels to South Korea, the first significant flow signal out of the UAE's main oil hub since the war began. Maritime intelligence firm Windward AI detected the collapse of Automatic Identification System (AIS) transmissions near Fujairah on Sunday, consistent with electronic warfare or deliberate vessel shutdowns 14FOX Mass tanker blackout rattles Gulf ahead of 1.35M-barrel oil transfer amid US-Iran talks: firm. The same port moved a single very large crude carrier (VLCC) to South Korea, which Windward called "the first signal of flow resuming out of Fujairah." One cargo does not reopen a strait. But it is the first data point that suggests the physical infrastructure for resumed flows is being tested while the deal is still being written 14FOX Mass tanker blackout rattles Gulf ahead of 1.35M-barrel oil transfer amid US-Iran talks: firm.

• Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 megaproject era is effectively over, and the Iran war is part of why. The BBC published a detailed account of how Neom and its flagship sub-projects, including the 170-kilometre linear city known as The Line, are being abandoned, indefinitely delayed, or dramatically scaled back 13BBC How Saudi Arabia's spending spree reached the end of the line. Oil price uncertainty created by the war, combined with the failure of foreign investment to materialise at the projected scale, has broken the financial model that Vision 2030 depended on. The Saudi sovereign wealth fund is redirecting capital to defence and reconstruction. The most ambitious state-led economic transformation project in a generation is being quietly buried while the world watches Doha 13BBC How Saudi Arabia's spending spree reached the end of the line.

The market snapshot is from 22 May, so Monday's moves are only partially captured here. What the data shows is Brent at $100.20, down from $103.50 the prior day, with the Oil Volatility Index (OVX) rising to 75.97. Oil falling while oil volatility rises is the market saying it believes a deal is possible but does not trust it to hold. Rubio's "pretty solid thing on the table" drove oil lower earlier Monday, per the BBC 12BBM Rubio says 'solid' Iran deal may come on Monday. Defence stocks continued their quiet grind upward: BAE Systems, Lockheed Martin, and Rheinmetall all gained on the week. Gold at $4,523 is down nearly five percent from its April peak, which is real but not dramatic. VIX at 16.70 is remarkably calm for a war that is not over. Either markets know something, or they are complacent in a way that will look embarrassing in hindsight.

The petrodollar argument is starting to get mainstream traction and it matters beyond the headlines. With Gulf sovereign wealth funds diverting oil revenue to military spending and reconstruction rather than recycling it into US Treasuries, foreign holdings of American debt are falling at a moment when the US fiscal position is already stretched 10TTM Petrodollar loop broken as Iran war chokes Persian Gulf wealth. The practical consequence is upward pressure on US borrowing costs, meaning mortgages, car loans, and government debt all get more expensive for longer. This is not a sudden event. It is a structural shift that the war is accelerating, and it lands on top of pump prices that remain elevated heading into the US summer driving season. Republican senators Ted Cruz, Roger Wicker, and Lindsey Graham have all broken with Trump publicly over the deal terms 12BBM Rubio says 'solid' Iran deal may come on Monday. That is politically significant not because they can stop Trump, but because they are giving cover to House Republicans facing re-election who need a reason to vote against the war powers resolution in June. The deferred war powers vote comes back in early June. The holiday weekend has not made it easier.