TRUMP SAYS DEAL DONE. IRAN SAYS IT ISN'T. BOTH CANT BE ENTIRELY WRONG.

Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran had agreed to open Hormuz, allow mine removal, never develop a nuclear weapon, and let the US destroy its enriched uranium stockpile, then announced the naval blockade "will now be lifted" 1BBC Trump holding meeting to make 'final determination' on Iran deal 3GDN Trump claims to be on verge of approving peace deal with major Iranian concessions 4AJE Trump says ‘final determination’ to be made on possible Iran deal. Iran's Foreign Ministry said no final agreement exists, Tasnim called it classic Trump unilateralism, and Fars called it "a mixture of truth and lies," specifying that uranium destruction and Hormuz fees appear nowhere in the actual MOU text 1BBC Trump holding meeting to make 'final determination' on Iran deal 3GDN Trump claims to be on verge of approving peace deal with major Iranian concessions 7PTV Iran says no final understanding with US yet, rejects Trump's 'language of must'. The best reconstruction across sources: there is a working-level MOU covering a 60-day ceasefire extension and broad Hormuz shipping language, but the nuclear file is not in it and sanctions relief remains off the table from the US side 1BBC Trump holding meeting to make 'final determination' on Iran deal 9AJE US-Iran 60-day proposal: What we know. Trump appears to be doing what he does: announcing his maximum position as a done deal and betting market momentum and public pressure force Iran to ratify it rather than blow up the ceasefire.

Israeli ground forces from the 36th Division crossed the Litani River in Lebanon, with Netanyahu confirming the advance in person at the northern border, and the IDF chief saying the forward line "does not limit us" 2TOI PM confirms troops crossed Litani, as Pentagon hosts Israeli-Lebanon security talks. Israel also struck Beirut for the first time in three weeks and hit the Bekaa Valley, killing at least 14 people 2TOI PM confirms troops crossed Litani, as Pentagon hosts Israeli-Lebanon security talks. Separately, a classified US intelligence report says Israeli officials are "aggressively trying to pull the US away from talks and back into war," and specifically proposed assassinating Iran's chief negotiator Ghalibaf, whom the Mossad identified as the most accessible senior target 11CRD Israel urging US to kill Iran’s top negotiator, resume war: Report. The sourcing on the assassination claim is single-channel and warrants caution on the operational specifics, but the direction fits everything we know about where Netanyahu stands on these negotiations.

Pakistani deputy PM and FM Ishaq Dar flew to Washington to meet Secretary Rubio, with the Iran file expected to dominate 12AJE What’s happening on Iran war day 91 as US, Iran near 60-day deal. Pakistan is the primary back-channel between Washington and Tehran, and the timing, one day after negotiators reportedly finalised the MOU text and one day after Trump's Truth Social post blew up the optics, is not coincidental. If Dar and Rubio emerge with a joint statement that includes a timeline or named process, the deal survives Trump's theatrics. If Dar returns to Islamabad without a public statement, the ceasefire extension clock is running with no renewal mechanism in place.

Iranian FM Araghchi held a call with his Omani counterpart, describing it as "very productive," with Hormuz governance the central topic and Araghchi expressing solidarity with Oman against US pressure 5CRD Iran expresses ‘total solidarity’ with Oman following Trump's threats to ‘blow up’ sultanate 8PTV Iran, Oman FMs discuss administration of Hormuz Strait in ‘very productive’ call. This is the exact bilateral coordination Washington has been trying to prevent, happening in public on the same day Trump announced he was unilaterally lifting the blockade. Iran is not conceding Hormuz management. It is building a regional coalition around it, which makes the tolling question significantly harder to resolve than Trump's post implied.

US inflation hit 3.8 percent in April on the Fed's preferred measure, a near three-year high, with fuel, energy, food, and housing accounting for roughly half of monthly spending gains as the oil shock transmits directly into household budgets 14CNN War-driven price shock sent April inflation to highest level in nearly three years | CNN Business. The personal saving rate fell to 2.6 percent, meaning households have almost no buffer left 14CNN War-driven price shock sent April inflation to highest level in nearly three years | CNN Business. Markets, for their part, are pricing a Hormuz reopening with high confidence: Brent is at $92, down from $118 a month ago, and the VIX is calm. Gold at $4,560 is a series high, though, which is the hedge trade saying the oil market may be right but something else could still go badly wrong. Make of that what you will.