TWO DEALS, ONE NEGOTIATION

Trump sent a draft memorandum of understanding to Netanyahu and regional leaders for comment, but it remains unclear whether Iran has actually accepted it or whether it is just the latest American proposal 1IHY Trump sent Netanyahu, regional leaders draft agreement with Iran. Iran's state broadcaster then published its own version describing a completely different arrangement: US naval withdrawal, Iranian control of Hormuz shipping lanes, sanctions lifted 1IHY Trump sent Netanyahu, regional leaders draft agreement with Iran 9AAM Draft US-Iran deal includes Hormuz coordination with Oman: Iranian media. Trump at his cabinet meeting: no sanctions relief, Iran surrenders its uranium, "not for sanctions relief. No, no, not at all" 3AJE US, Iran issue conflicting reports on deal as Trump says no sanction relief. Rubio said there is "an agreement to be made" without offering a timeline 4FOX Trump says Iran is 'negotiating on fumes,' believes regime thought they could outwait him, which is where we were Tuesday, so not much movement.

Israel took delivery of its first KC-46 "Gideon" tanker aircraft Wednesday, one of six on order from Boeing, in a ceremony at Nevatim Airbase attended by the IDF Chief of Staff and IAF commander 5TOI Israel gets 1st of new KC-46 refueling planes, major step up in long range capability. Israel flew roughly 8,500 sorties during Operation Epic Fury almost entirely dependent on US KC-135 support 5TOI Israel gets 1st of new KC-46 refueling planes, major step up in long range capability. This gives Israel the ability to strike Iran without American logistical cooperation. At a moment when Washington and Jerusalem are publicly describing different deals, Israel is quietly ensuring it does not need to ask permission to act. Timing is not a coincidence.

South Pars, Iran's main petrochemical hub, is back to full pre-war production levels after repairs completed within a month of the last strikes on 6 April 6CRD Iran's South Pars petrochemical hub restores pre-war production levels. US intelligence assessments (reported by a single outlet, so treat the specifics with caution) reportedly show Iran has retained around 70 percent of its pre-war missile stockpile, restarted drone production, and regained access to 90 percent of its underground missile storage 6CRD Iran's South Pars petrochemical hub restores pre-war production levels. Trump's framing of Iran as negotiating on fumes is probably accurate economically. It is becoming less accurate militarily. The Pentagon has also drawn up a new target list for a resumed campaign, though officials acknowledge the remaining targets are harder to strike than the first wave 12SPK US Draws Up New List of Targets in Iran in Case Trump Resumes Strikes - Reports.

Israel struck over 150 times across Tyre, Nabatieh, and the Bekaa in the past 48 hours, killing at least 36 people Wednesday alone 11CRD Hezbollah battles at 'zero distance' with invading Israeli troops, thwarts attempts to expand occupation of Lebanon. Hezbollah destroyed at least one Merkava tank and released footage of an FPV drone strike on an Iron Dome battery in northern Israel, the second such attack in recent days 11CRD Hezbollah battles at 'zero distance' with invading Israeli troops, thwarts attempts to expand occupation of Lebanon. More than 3,200 people have been killed in Lebanon since 2 March 11CRD Hezbollah battles at 'zero distance' with invading Israeli troops, thwarts attempts to expand occupation of Lebanon. Iran has consistently demanded any US deal include an end to the Lebanon campaign. Israel is making that demand more expensive to satisfy every day Netanyahu keeps expanding.

Ofgem is publishing a new energy price cap Wednesday, with analysts forecasting a 13 percent rise from July, adding roughly £209 a year to a typical household bill 13BBC Iran war impact to hit household energy bills for the first time. The driver is a 25 percent surge in wholesale gas prices tied directly to the Hormuz closure 13BBC Iran war impact to hit household energy bills for the first time. It lands during a record UK heatwave, so consumption is already elevated, and some suppliers are forecasting further rises by autumn. For roughly 19 million homes on variable tariffs, this is the moment the Iran war stops being a foreign news story and starts showing up on the direct debit statement.