NUCLEAR DEFERRAL IS THE DEAL AND ALSO THE PROBLEM

An ABC correspondent, citing sourced knowledge of the US proposal, reports the memorandum of understanding on the table would deliver Iran sanctions relief, oil export waivers, and gradual asset unfreezing in exchange for a commitment to "never develop a nuclear weapon," while explicitly postponing decisions on enrichment levels and uranium removal until a second negotiating phase. 12AAM New US proposal to Tehran includes significant financial concessions to Iran, claims American journalist Iran's foreign ministry has publicly described a matching 14-point framework leading to talks within 30 to 60 days. 3PTV Iran, US moving closer to 'finalizing memorandum of understanding': Baghaei The problem: Rubio said this week Iran must hand over its highly enriched uranium, and Trump said any deal would "absolutely" prevent Iran from getting the bomb. 1BBC Iran 'getting a lot closer' to agreement with US, Trump says Neither condition is met by phase one. The gap is being managed by pretending phase two will be easier than phase one, which is an optimistic assumption with a mixed historical record.

Netanyahu was promised uranium removal as a condition of any deal and has been excluded from the negotiations entirely. 6TOI Trump said weighing new strikes as he seeks ‘decisive’ victory amid frustration with Iran talks The framework reportedly on the table does not deliver that in phase one. If any Israeli official makes a public statement specifically attacking the deal's nuclear provisions in the next 48 hours, it means Jerusalem has seen the text and is trying to kill it before it is signed. That kind of move from a close ally puts Trump in an impossible spot and is the single scenario most likely to blow up a near-done deal.

The Persian Gulf Strait Authority logged 26 ship transits under its coordination in a single day Thursday, with vessels outside formal agreements reportedly paying upward of $150,000 per passage. 15ABC Iran tightens grip on Strait of Hormuz with new transit regime Under international maritime law this is straightforwardly illegal. In practice, operators are paying because the alternative is not getting through. France has a competing UN Security Council resolution proposing international oversight of the strait, a more viable play than the US-Bahraini proposal that Russia and China will simply veto. 8AJE Iran war day 85: Tehran says major gaps remain in US talks Every day the PGSA operates without being dismantled is a day it becomes harder to dismantle.

House Republican leaders yanked Thursday's war powers vote after concluding they did not have the numbers. 14CNN GOP leaders abruptly cancel House vote on Iran war powers, shielding Trump from rebuke | CNN Politics It is now deferred to early June. Democrats say they had the votes. RBOB gasoline futures are up more than four percent this week, pump prices are feeding through just in time for Memorial Day, and a CNN poll found 77 percent of Americans say Trump's policies have increased their cost of living. 14CNN GOP leaders abruptly cancel House vote on Iran war powers, shielding Trump from rebuke | CNN Politics The political environment for Republican members sitting on the fence is not improving during the recess. The June vote is going to be harder to manage, not easier.

Palo Alto Networks' Unit 42 confirmed Iranian hackers have been posing as job recruiters to target software engineers at aviation and oil and gas firms in the US, Israel, and the UAE. 13CNN Iranian hackers are targeting aviation, oil and gas companies in espionage scheme, researchers say | CNN Politics No aviation or energy company was successfully breached, but other unidentified targets were. With Iran unable to reach the US mainland with missiles, this is the asymmetric lever it is pulling to keep Washington uncomfortable between rounds of diplomacy. It is a low-cost, deniable pressure campaign, and it is working well enough to keep running.