IRGC ISSUES ITS SHARPEST THREAT YET AS TRUMP DEADLINE APPROACHES

The IRGC said Wednesday that if US strikes resume, the war will "spread far beyond the region," and added that Iran has not yet deployed the full power of the Islamic revolution despite absorbing the combined militaries of "the world's two most expensive armies." 4TOI IRGC threatens war will ‘spread far beyond the region’ if US renews attacks on Iran The timing is not accidental: this statement lands two days before Trump's self-imposed window expires, aimed simultaneously at Washington, the Gulf states, and Iran's domestic audience. Xi Jinping chose the same day to tell Putin, in a joint readout, that resuming hostilities is "even more inadvisable" and a ceasefire is "of utmost urgency" 4TOI IRGC threatens war will ‘spread far beyond the region’ if US renews attacks on Iran. Xi does not put that in a press statement unless he wants both capitals to hear it.

Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi made his second trip to Tehran in one week 4TOI IRGC threatens war will ‘spread far beyond the region’ if US renews attacks on Iran, and a new formal round of talks in Islamabad is reportedly being arranged for after Hajj, which ends around June 5 to 10 1SPK New Round of Iran-US Talks to Be Held in Pakistan After End of Hajj - Reports. One single-source report claims the Pakistani army commander may travel to Tehran on Thursday specifically to announce a finalised draft agreement 1SPK New Round of Iran-US Talks to Be Held in Pakistan After End of Hajj - Reports. Treat that with caution, but watch it closely: if it happens and produces something concrete, the diplomatic calendar shifts dramatically; if it produces nothing, the mediation track is running on fumes. The structural problem remains that Iran wants to keep its nuclear programme and receive reparations, while the US demands Iran surrender its nuclear programme before anything else happens 10TOI Israel said preparing for renewal of Iran war; Trump says Tehran has days to make deal. Pakistan can keep the door from slamming. It cannot close that gap.

Iran's attacks and the Hormuz closure have more than halved UAE crude and gas exports. A drone struck the Barakah nuclear plant perimeter on Sunday, and the UAE has now left OPEC entirely and is planning a new pipeline to reduce Hormuz dependence 12APW UAE's image as haven is tested the longer the war drags on. These are structural economic decisions, not reactive gestures, made by a country whose entire value proposition to the world was stability and predictability. The longer this drags, the more that reputation erodes, and the UAE's ability to attract foreign investment is the one thing it genuinely cannot afford to lose 12APW UAE's image as haven is tested the longer the war drags on.

Street weapons classes where IRGC soldiers demonstrate Kalashnikov assembly to civilians, mass weddings staged around pink jeep-mounted machine guns in Imam Hussein Square, state television presenters shooting at images of Trump and Netanyahu 11IHY With public weddings and weapons classes, Iran prepares for war. The framing is explicitly about avenging the supreme leader's death. A regime can negotiate and run mobilisation propaganda simultaneously, which is not nothing, but the domestic narrative being built here makes sudden Iranian concessions at the table structurally harder to sell at home.

Brent fell from $111.50 to $104.80, WTI from $104.60 to $98.02, on the Pakistan mediation news and Trump backing off again. The Oil Volatility Index at 72.85 barely moved, meaning traders trimmed their near-term strike premium while keeping the structural disruption premium intact. Defence stocks were flat, shipping ETFs ticked up slightly, and gold fell slower than oil, so the gold-to-oil ratio started reversing its compression. The Friday Brent close will tell you more about where the diplomacy actually stands than most of the week's news coverage. If oil reverses back toward $110 by Friday, traders have decided Pakistan delivered nothing and the strike probability is re-entering the price.