TRUMP SAYS "LARGELY NEGOTIATED." IRAN SAYS "NOT YET." BOTH ARE CORRECT.

• Iran threatened NPT withdrawal if the US enters the Persian Gulf. Mohsen Rezai, a member of Iran's Expediency Discernment Council and former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander, said explicitly that if the US "enters the Persian Gulf," Iran would respond with "tough, painful and unprecedented" force, break the naval blockade, and potentially withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) 3SPK Iran Could Withdraw From NPT If US Attacks Persian Gulf - Official 7PTV Leader’s advisor: Iran will break US naval blockade, exit NPT if attacked again. "Do you know what will happen to you if we withdraw? So, don't commit suicide," he said 7PTV Leader’s advisor: Iran will break US naval blockade, exit NPT if attacked again. This is not an anonymous hardliner. Rezai is a senior institutional figure. Threatening NPT withdrawal is the sharpest nuclear leverage Iran has deployed publicly since the war began. It lands now, while a deal is being finalised, because Tehran is reminding Washington what the alternative looks like.

• Oman and Iran held formal talks on Hormuz navigation principles, the same day the deal framework was being discussed publicly. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi met Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi in Muscat, with discussions explicitly covering "principles governing freedom of navigation" under international law 4AAM Oman, Iran discuss principles governing navigation through Strait of Hormuz under int'l law. The meeting came after Gharibabadi delivered a verbal message from Foreign Minister Araghchi on the US-Iran talks. The fact that Oman is holding these talks now, rather than waiting for a deal to be signed, tells you Muscat is not simply observing. It is positioning to be relevant to whatever governance structure emerges over the strait.

• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is planning to keep southern Lebanese territory regardless of what the deal says. The IDF is drawing up plans to maintain roughly seven to eight kilometres of Lebanese territory on the Israeli side of the border, establish permanent military outposts inside villages, and prevent both Hezbollah fighters and Lebanese civilians from returning 2TOI IDF draws up Lebanon plans amid concern Iran deal could curb fighting with Hezbollah. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir approved plans to "deepen the blow against Hezbollah" 2TOI IDF draws up Lebanon plans amid concern Iran deal could curb fighting with Hezbollah. Israel told the US it wants freedom of operation in southern Lebanon even if a deal is signed. The proposed deal terms, per Israeli media, would allow the IDF to act only if Hezbollah attacks first 2TOI IDF draws up Lebanon plans amid concern Iran deal could curb fighting with Hezbollah. That constraint is incompatible with what Zamir signed off on today.

• The US lost nearly a fifth of its entire MQ-9 Reaper drone fleet in this war. Bloomberg reported the US has lost up to 30 Reaper drones since February 28, worth close to $1 billion, dropping the operational fleet from above 189 aircraft to roughly 135 6RTN Iran wiped out fifth of US Reaper drone fleet, Bloomberg. The Air Force's own stated minimum floor is 189. The Congressional Research Service separately estimated 24 Reapers lost, plus one MQ-4C, alongside four F-15E jets, one F-35A, seven KC-135 refuelling tankers, and more 6RTN Iran wiped out fifth of US Reaper drone fleet, Bloomberg. Operation Epic Fury's total cost has now risen to $29 billion, up from the previously projected $25 billion 6RTN Iran wiped out fifth of US Reaper drone fleet, Bloomberg. The US military that would restart this war is materially smaller and more depleted than the one that started it.

• Japan will wait up to two years longer for Tomahawk cruise missiles it already ordered, because the US needs to replenish its own stocks first. The Financial Times reported the Pentagon told Tokyo its 400-missile order, originally due by 2028, faces further delays as American inventories are rebuilt after the war consumed a quarter to a third of total US Tomahawk stocks 11SPK US Delays Tomahawk Delivery to Japan by Up to 2 Years, Report. Production lead time for new missiles is 42 months. Every US ally watching this is running the same calculation: American munitions are finite, and the queue is long.

Brent dropped from $103.50 to $100.20 over the week, and the Oil Volatility Index (OVX) rose to 75.97 from a week ago at 72.35. That combination is the market's honest read: crude is drifting lower on deal optimism, but uncertainty about whether the deal actually holds is simultaneously rising. Someone is buying the rumour and hedging the risk at the same time.

Gold is down to $4,523 from April's $4,732 peak, continuing its slow drift lower. Defence stocks, by contrast, ticked up across the board: Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, and Rheinmetall all gained on the week. Markets are pricing a partial de-escalation, not a clean end to the war. The ITA defence ETF sitting at a five-week high while oil falls is the clearest expression of that split. Copper at $6.38 continues its quiet climb, up roughly four percent from a month ago. That is an industrial demand signal, not a war signal. Someone believes the global economy comes through this.

The US Memorial Day weekend is unfolding against a backdrop of Brent at $100 and Republican senators publicly breaking with their president over his Iran deal. That combination is politically combustible. The war powers vote, deferred to June from last week's pulled session, returns to a House where the pressure on Republican members will not have decreased over a holiday weekend of expensive fill-ups. Separately, the intelligence vacuum created by Tulsi Gabbard's resignation as Director of National Intelligence, formally effective June 30, is landing at the worst possible moment: the US is finalising the most consequential diplomatic agreement since the war began, with acting Director Aaron Lukas at the helm of 18 agencies 16APW Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard resigns. Gabbard's departure was framed as personal, but her documented opposition to the war and her Senate testimony contradicting Trump on the Iranian nuclear threat left her position structurally untenable 16APW Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard resigns.