THE MOU COLLAPSES AS BOTH SIDES RESUME FULL STRIKES

• Iran's IRGC issued an explicit warning that any country hosting US military forces is now a legitimate target 6MHR Iran warns of harsher response to any new US attacks. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters stated: "The source of any support for the aggressor US army to violate the sovereignty and territory of Islamic Iran will be a legitimate target." This is a significant escalation of declared doctrine. It puts Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, all of which host major US installations, on formal notice. The Gulf states that have been quietly navigating between Washington and Tehran now have an Iranian military statement that removes their ambiguity buffer.

• Trump floated reinstating the full naval blockade of Iran, saying "we may put down the blockade, we may put it back" and specifying it would apply only to Iranian-flagged or Iranian-destined vessels 7SPK US Could Seize Kharg Island, Reinstate Iran Naval Blockade - Trump. He also confirmed the Treasury's 60-day sanctions waiver, which had allowed Iran to sell oil at full market rates through August 21, has been revoked 3BBC Trump threatens more strikes on Iran as Tehran warns of 'fearless' response. Combined with the Kharg Island strike, this is a coordinated economic strangulation signal: Iran's export terminal is damaged, its waiver is gone, and its shadow fleet faces renewed naval enforcement. The economic leverage Iran has been using to sustain the war is being targeted simultaneously from three directions.

• Saudi Arabia is actively exploring rerouting the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) through Syria rather than Israel, according to two sources familiar with the discussions 1JPO Saudi Arabia explores IMEC route through Syria, sidestepping Israel, sources tell 'Post'. Under the original plan, freight would travel by rail through Jordan and Israel to the Port of Haifa. The Syria reroute would create a Gulf-to-Mediterranean land bridge bypassing Israel entirely. This is a direct consequence of Hormuz instability and collapsed Israel-Saudi normalisation momentum. If it proceeds, it is a significant strategic loss for Israel, which had expected IMEC to be the economic centrepiece of a normalisation deal. It is also notable timing: Trump removed Syria from the US terrorism sponsor list today, pending a 45-day congressional review 4JPM Trump removes Syria from US terrorism sponsor list, move still pending congressional approval, which is precisely the kind of diplomatic rehabilitation that makes a Syrian corridor commercially viable.

• Trump removed Syria from the US State Sponsor of Terrorism list and said Damascus "could help with Hezbollah" 4JPM Trump removes Syria from US terrorism sponsor list, move still pending congressional approval. The move requires a 45-day congressional review to be finalised. Trump also said he believes Israel wants to withdraw from southern Lebanon. Taken together with the IMEC rerouting exploration, the Syria rehabilitation picture is moving faster than most analysts expected. The beneficiary of all of this is Ahmad al-Sharaa's government in Damascus, which is being handed geopolitical legitimacy and economic opportunity simultaneously by Washington.

• A CNN investigation, reported via The Cradle, found that senior US military commanders bypassed database warnings that intelligence used for early strike targets in Iran was "severely out of date" before approving the strike on the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls' school in Minab, which killed nearly 200 children and adults 8CRD Pentagon officials ‘ignored warnings’ of outdated intel ahead of Minab school massacre: Report. The intelligence was described as years old and requiring re-verification. Commanders overrode the warning flags for "expediency" at the start of the campaign. The Pentagon has still not ordered a formal inquiry. This is a significant accountability story that has so far been largely absorbed into the noise of renewed escalation, but it will not stay there. The named officers identified by Iran in March, Leigh R. Tate and Jeffrey E. York, have still not been publicly addressed by the Pentagon 8CRD Pentagon officials ‘ignored warnings’ of outdated intel ahead of Minab school massacre: Report.

Brent jumped to $78.09 from $75.86 yesterday, a 3% move on a single day of confirmed MoU collapse 12AJE Why have US-Iran strikes resumed and what does it mean for peace?. That is meaningful, but notice what it is not: it is not the $93 Brent we saw in June, and it is not pricing a full Hormuz closure. Markets believe Trump's "anything that happens will be over quickly" more than his "it's over." The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) climbed to 49.82, its highest in weeks, which means options traders are paying up for protection even as the spot price stays controlled. That divergence is the real signal: the base case is managed escalation, but the tail risk is being priced more seriously than the headlines suggest.

Defence stocks sold off today, which sounds counterintuitive. Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, and BAE Systems all declined. The likely read is profit-taking after months of gains, combined with uncertainty about whether resumed strikes translate into new procurement or just draw down existing inventories. The FTSE 100 fell 1.7%, the DAX dropped 2.2%, and European bond yields climbed, consistent with investors repricing inflation risk if Hormuz disruption persists. Gold barely moved, sitting at $4,100, down fractionally, which tells you this is being read as a hot episode within a managed conflict rather than a systemic break.

The Gold/Oil ratio at 55.70, down from 57 yesterday, reflects oil catching up to gold's existing risk premium. Watch this ratio: if it drops below 50, markets are pricing genuine supply disruption.

The revocation of Iran's oil sales waiver is the most consequential economic development of the day for Western consumers. The waiver had been quietly supporting global supply since June 22 by allowing Iranian crude back into legitimate markets at full price. Its removal re-tightens the supply picture precisely as Brent is climbing on Hormuz tension. European governments that have been pointing to falling fuel prices as evidence that the MoU was working now face the prospect of that argument reversing within weeks. The UK and Germany are particularly exposed: both are running elevated energy import bills, both opposed the Iran war diplomatically, and neither has a meaningful lever to pull on Hormuz governance. The 6% Brent jump cited by Al Jazeera earlier today 12AJE Why have US-Iran strikes resumed and what does it mean for peace? will reach forecourt prices in most European markets within a week.