IRAN IS WINNING THE HORMUZ ROUTING WAR, ONE SHIP AT A TIME

• Mojtaba Khamenei's absence from his own father's funeral is now conspicuous enough that it has become a news story in itself. His three brothers, Mostafa, Meysam, and Masoud, all attended and prayed beside their father's coffin on Sunday 1AJE Sons of Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei attend funeral, but Mojtaba is absent 2BBC Iran's supreme leader absent as senior officials attend ayatollah's funeral. Mojtaba did not. The official explanation is Israeli assassination threat, which is entirely plausible given that Israel's defence minister has publicly stated he is "marked for death." What it reveals operationally is that Iran's new supreme leader is governing from a location and condition that his own government will not confirm, and has not issued a single public statement since March 11GDN Calls for killing of Trump at funeral of Iran supreme leader Ali Khamenei. The funeral week was the obvious choreographed moment to change that. He did not appear. Draw your own conclusions about why.

• Iran is formally pursuing legal complaints against the US and Israel for the assassination of Ali Khamenei. Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani confirmed Sunday that the Presidential Legal Office and Foreign Ministry are "seriously following up" on a case file, collecting evidence and documentation 9JPM Iran to pursue legal action against Israel, US over Khamenei assassination, official says - report. The legal path here is almost certainly the International Court of Justice. This will go nowhere quickly and both Washington and Tel Aviv know it. But it serves a purpose: it locks in the Iranian narrative that the opening strikes of Operation Epic Fury constituted an assassination, not a military operation, and it creates an institutional record Iran can use in every future negotiation.

• The Houthis launched their most lethal attack on Yemeni government forces in years, killing 16 troops in the Hodeidah governorate's Jabal Dabbas area using snipers, drones, and mortars 8AJE Houthi rebels kill 16 Yemeni government troops in fiercest clashes in years. A Yemeni minister put Houthi casualties above 50. Front lines in Yemen have been largely frozen since the 2022 UN truce, which makes this assault notable for its intensity. Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre reported a vessel in the Red Sea sending a distress signal after being attacked by unknown armed assailants off Hodeidah 6GDN Iran seeks to tighten control over strait of Hormuz alongside Khamenei funeral. The Houthis are not sitting out the conflict period. The ceasefire covering Iran and the US does not extend to Yemen's internal war, and the combination of an escalating ground offensive and resumed maritime harassment is a reminder that the southern Red Sea has not stabilised.

• Resistance movement leaders met Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran on the funeral sidelines. Hezbollah sent a senior delegation led by Mohammad Fneish. Hamas's Leadership Council chair Mohammed Darwish met Ghalibaf 3AAM Iranian parliament speaker says implementing memorandum ‘difficult but possible’ 10CRD Regional resistance factions meet with Iran FM on sidelines of Khamenei’s funeral. Araghchi told the Hezbollah delegation that Iran is "seriously pursuing" the demand for an end to the war in Lebanon under Article 1 of the MoU, which calls for Israeli withdrawal 10CRD Regional resistance factions meet with Iran FM on sidelines of Khamenei’s funeral. Israel has publicly stated it will continue occupying southern Lebanon regardless. These two positions remain flatly incompatible, and every session between Araghchi and resistance faction leaders reinforces Iran's commitment to Article 1 as a non-negotiable.

• Israel has publicly confirmed for the first time that it deployed an Iron Dome battery and IDF troops to the UAE during the war, with Transportation Minister Miri Regev confirming what had previously only been reported via foreign sources 12JPO Israel sent Iron Dome system, team to UAE during recent Iran war, Miri Regev confirms. The detail buried in the confirmation: Iran fired several hundred more ballistic and cruise missiles at the UAE than it did at Israel during the conflict, plus thousands of drones 12JPO Israel sent Iron Dome system, team to UAE during recent Iran war, Miri Regev confirms. The UAE absorbed an enormous amount of Iranian firepower, most of it intercepted but some striking military and civilian targets. That is a significant data point about Iran's targeting priorities and operational capacity that has received relatively little attention in Western coverage.

Oil is essentially flat at $72, and the market is not reacting to the Hormuz routing story yet. That is either composure or denial. Gold climbed again to $4,187, up from $4,096 a week ago, and the Gold/Oil ratio at 60.88 remains at its conflict-period high. The two assets continue to price different realities: crude is assuming Hormuz muddles through, gold is pricing something unresolved. BAE Systems held near its recent highs, Rheinmetall slipped marginally but remains up roughly 15% over the past month. European equities (DAX, FTSE) are quietly at multi-month peaks. The VIX at 15.81 reflects US market calm that does not match the operational picture in the strait. If the Omani corridor routing failure starts showing up in shipping data as a sustained trend rather than a 48-hour blip, expect energy prices to respond faster than equities.

The Hormuz routing story has a direct pump-price implication that has not landed yet. Oil below $72 has brought fuel costs down meaningfully from the $125 Brent peak earlier in the conflict. But that relief is contingent on the Omani corridor remaining viable as an alternative to Iranian-controlled routes. It is not currently viable in practice 5MHR Ships use Iran-desingated route in Hormuz Strait 6GDN Iran seeks to tighten control over strait of Hormuz alongside Khamenei funeral. France and the UK committed to a mine-clearing naval operation for the southern route, which Iran's Foreign Ministry has already rejected as "unwarranted interference" 6GDN Iran seeks to tighten control over strait of Hormuz alongside Khamenei funeral. If that operation proceeds, it is a direct confrontation with Iran over strait governance. If it does not, the Western alternative route strategy quietly fails and the fee regime Iran is building becomes the only game in town. Either way, consumers in Europe and elsewhere who have been enjoying falling fuel prices are exposed to a reversal that could arrive without much warning.