THE IRGC IS NOW FIGHTING TWO WARS SIMULTANEOUSLY

• Jordan is now an active strike target. The IRGC fired 10 ballistic missiles at US facilities in Jordan, specifically targeting the command and control centre and Al Azraq Air Base 6MHR IRGC launches missiles against US Command, airbase in Jordan. Jordan intercepted eight missiles and reported no damage, but air raid sirens sounded across the country for the first time in months 9YNT Sirens sound in Jordan; Iran accuses US of airstrike near Bushehr nuclear power plant. Jordan has been quietly hosting US military operations throughout this conflict. That cover is gone. The IRGC explicitly warned that any country hosting US forces is a legitimate target 6MHR IRGC launches missiles against US Command, airbase in Jordan, and it just demonstrated it means it.

• Qatar has paused its LNG output revival at Ras Laffan. After the IRGC struck the Al Rekayyat LNG tanker on Tuesday, QatarEnergy CEO Saad Al-Kaabi ordered operations held at minimum levels and reduced the number of vessels scheduled to dock 7AAM Qatar pauses LNG output revival after tanker attack near Hormuz: Report. European benchmark gas prices crossed 50 euros per megawatt-hour on Thursday for the first time since the MoU was signed, and Asian LNG spot prices are now more than 80 percent above pre-war levels 7AAM Qatar pauses LNG output revival after tanker attack near Hormuz: Report. This is the most consequential energy-sector consequence of the renewed escalation so far. Qatar was supposed to be the emergency global LNG supplier while Hormuz was disrupted. It is now too scared to load its own tankers.

• US strikes hit the rail bridge on the China-Turkmenistan-Iran corridor, the route through which freight from China to Iran has tripled since the naval blockade began 9YNT Sirens sound in Jordan; Iran accuses US of airstrike near Bushehr nuclear power plant. Iran called the targeting of two Mashhad-bound bridges a war crime because they were struck during Khamenei's funeral. But the strategic logic is separate from the timing controversy: Washington just hit Iran's overland trade lifeline to China and Russia, not just its maritime chokepoints. That is a deliberate escalation of the economic strangulation campaign.

• France is now formally positioning Syria as an energy corridor, with Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot describing Syria as a potential "new regional hub" for Gulf oil to reach European markets via the Mediterranean 2CRD France eyes Syria as 'vital energy corridor' amid Hormuz crisis. This follows Macron's Damascus visit and the signing of diplomatic restoration agreements. TotalEnergies chief Patrick Pouyanne accompanied Macron and has signed a memorandum of understanding for Mediterranean exploration 2CRD France eyes Syria as 'vital energy corridor' amid Hormuz crisis. Iraq has already been trucking over 600,000 tons of fuel oil through Syria since April to bypass Hormuz 2CRD France eyes Syria as 'vital energy corridor' amid Hormuz crisis. France is essentially trying to institutionalise an energy architecture that routes around both the strait and the conflict.

• Iraq and Turkey are finalising a one-year extension of the Kirkuk-to-Ceyhan pipeline agreement ahead of its July 27 expiry 1CRD Iraq, Turkiye extend agreement for oil exports via Ceyhan pipeline. This matters because it locks in the overland alternative to Hormuz for Iraqi crude, which funds 90 percent of Baghdad's national budget 1CRD Iraq, Turkiye extend agreement for oil exports via Ceyhan pipeline. Iraq's government has been simultaneously trucking oil through Syria and shipping via Ceyhan, building redundancy that did not exist before February. The economic pressure on Baghdad is severe, but the improvised logistics network it has assembled is more durable than most expected.

Here is the genuinely strange thing about today's numbers. Brent dropped from $79.25 to $76.06, a fall of more than 4 percent, on a day when Hormuz transits hit their lowest count since the ceasefire and Qatar paused its LNG revival 11AAM Hormuz traffic nearly halts as renewed US-Iran strikes rattle energy shipping 7AAM Qatar pauses LNG output revival after tanker attack near Hormuz: Report. That is not irrational. It reflects one specific bet: that the US strikes are degrading Iran's ability to attack shipping, not closing the strait permanently. The oil volatility index (OVX) fell from 50.45 to 46.48, which means options traders are actually less worried about near-term supply disruption than they were yesterday. Markets are pricing "painful but manageable" escalation, not closure.

The divergence that should make you cautious: European gas prices crossed 50 euros per megawatt-hour today for the first time since the MoU 7AAM Qatar pauses LNG output revival after tanker attack near Hormuz: Report, moving in the opposite direction to oil. Gas markets are pricing Qatar's output pause as a real supply tightening. Oil markets are pricing US military action as a deterrent. Both cannot be fully right. One of them will reprice in the next 48 hours.

The Gold/Oil ratio at 57.61 is historically elevated and tells you something oil's spot price alone does not: gold is still pricing systemic risk while oil is pricing a managed episode. That gap has persisted for weeks. Watch for it to close, either because oil catches up or because gold pulls back.

European gas prices breaking 50 euros per megawatt-hour will flow into household energy bills within weeks, not months. Governments that have been pointing to the post-MoU price relief as a policy win are now watching that argument evaporate in real time. Qatar's Ras Laffan pause is the mechanism: Europe has been counting on Qatari LNG as its backup supply throughout this crisis, and QatarEnergy just announced it is not comfortable loading ships into a war zone. The UK in particular is exposed. British Maritime Trade Operations has been running the southern Hormuz corridor that Iran just proved it can shut, and the UK has no spare LNG supply chain to substitute. The EU trade ministers meeting today on Israeli settlement products is likely to be overshadowed by energy emergency discussions that were not on the agenda when the meeting was scheduled.