ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE PUBLICLY REFUSED TO BACK NETANYAHU'S NUCLEAR DESTRUCTION CLAIM

• The Khamenei funeral is doing exactly the political work Tehran designed it to do. Crowds in the tens of thousands gathered from the early hours, the slogan "We must rise" is plastered across the Grand Mosalla complex alongside Khamenei's clenched fist on a red and black background, and red flags signalling martyrdom and revenge are visible throughout 1AJE Iran promotes message of continuity and revenge at Khamenei commemoration 4GDN Crowds gather as six-day funeral for former Iranian supreme leader begins. New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is not attending due to security concerns, which tells you something about how seriously Tehran is treating the threat of Israeli targeting 1AJE Iran promotes message of continuity and revenge at Khamenei commemoration. The coffins on the stage include members of Khamenei's family killed in the opening airstrike, among them his 14-month-old granddaughter 4GDN Crowds gather as six-day funeral for former Iranian supreme leader begins. Iran's government is not letting anyone in the crowd forget what happened, or who did it.

• Saudi Arabia denied any attempt to intercept an Iranian civilian airliner over Yemen, and threatened "unprecedented" retaliation against any Houthi escalation 3CRD KSA denies targeting Iranian airliner over Yemen, threatens 'devastating response' to any escalation from Sanaa. The Yemeni Armed Forces had claimed on July 3 that Saudi jets entered Yemeni airspace trying to prevent an Iranian passenger aircraft carrying over 200 people from landing at Sanaa airport, and said they fired air defence missiles to drive the jets off. Saudi spokesperson Major General Turki al-Maliki called the claim a distraction from Houthi "grave violations" 3CRD KSA denies targeting Iranian airliner over Yemen, threatens 'devastating response' to any escalation from Sanaa. The two accounts are flatly contradictory and there is no independent verification. What is not in dispute: Iran is flying civilian aircraft into Houthi-controlled Sanaa, the Saudis are not happy about it, and something happened in that airspace on July 3 that nearly escalated into a direct Saudi-Houthi exchange. This is a thread worth watching carefully.

• Iran, Russia, and Azerbaijan signed a memorandum of understanding on rail freight transit, formalising cooperation on the western route of the International North-South Transport Corridor and establishing a "digital corridor" for data exchange across the rail network 6MHR Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan sign MoU on rail freight transit. This is unglamorous logistics news, but it matters strategically: Iran is methodically building the overland trade architecture that reduces its dependence on Hormuz and strengthens economic ties with Moscow and Baku. A country negotiating from pure desperation does not invest in a 10-year transit corridor. Tehran is hedging its economic future regardless of how the nuclear talks land.

• Iran's acting defence minister warned of a "decisive response" to any MoU violation and stated flatly that Iran does not trust the United States 7PTV Iran doesn’t trust US, will give 'decisive response' to any MoU violation: Acting defense minister. This is Iranian state media, so it is partly performative. But it lands on the same day that Ghalibaf told the Iraqi parliamentary speaker that Iran is consulting Gulf states on Hormuz management and the arrangements under the MoU 12TSN Iran Consulting Regional States on Strait of Hormuz Management: Qalibaf. Ghalibaf's framing is notable: he described the MoU as incorporating "important arrangements" on Hormuz governance, while emphasising that international law assigns joint administration to Iran and Oman alone 12TSN Iran Consulting Regional States on Strait of Hormuz Management: Qalibaf. He is simultaneously defending the MoU as legitimate and using it to consolidate Iranian control of the strait. That is a coherent strategy, not a contradiction.

• A London court sentenced two Romanian nationals to a combined 20 years for the 2024 stabbing of Iranian dissident journalist Pouria Zeraati, with the judge stating the evidence "overwhelmingly" showed the attack was carried out on behalf of the Iranian state 8TOI Two Romanian men jailed for 2024 stabbing of dissident Iranian journalist in London. UK security officials described a growing pattern of Iranian state-directed plots on British soil using criminal proxies. This conviction lands while Iran is simultaneously engaged in nuclear talks with the West. It is a useful reminder that Iran's intelligence operations against diaspora journalists and opposition figures did not stop when the ceasefire started.

Gold is up again, reaching $4,187, a steady climb from $4,096 a week ago and almost $300 below its conflict-period peak of $4,468 a month ago. Oil is essentially flat at $72.13, having barely moved in a week. The Gold/Oil ratio has now hit 60.88, its highest point in the entire conflict data series. The two assets are telling different stories: oil is pricing in a managed, stable Hormuz; gold is pricing in something that does not feel resolved. The Israeli intelligence refusal story 2AAM Israeli intelligence rejects Netanyahu's request to back claim Iran's nuclear program was completely destroyed: Report and the Pickaxe Mountain satellite data 9FOX Experts ‘deeply’ concerned over Iran’s work at underground nuclear site are probably part of why. European equity indices are quietly at multi-month highs, and the VIX at 15.81 reflects US market complacency about near-term risk. BAE Systems and Rheinmetall remain elevated, confirming markets have fully internalised the rearmament cycle as a structural trade regardless of diplomatic outcomes.

The London sentencing of the Zeraati attackers 8TOI Two Romanian men jailed for 2024 stabbing of dissident Iranian journalist in London is directly relevant to UK domestic security. The judge's explicit finding that this was a state-directed attack puts the British government in the position of simultaneously conducting diplomacy with Tehran's ceasefire interlocutors and prosecuting Tehran's intelligence proxies in its own courts. That tension has not been formally addressed by either side. UK security services have flagged an "escalating" pattern of Iranian plots targeting both media figures and the Jewish community. That pattern has not stopped. Anyone in Western Europe covering Iran critically, or affiliated with Iranian opposition networks, should register that the conviction changes the legal record but not the operational threat.