MOU COLLAPSES, KHARG ISLAND HIT, GULF BASES UNDER FIRE

Iran kicked this off by striking three commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, CENTCOM responded with strikes across Hormozgan, Bushehr, and Khuzestan provinces, and then came the headline: US forces hit Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports. 12AJE Why have US-Iran strikes resumed and what does it mean for peace? Trump ordered pilots to leave the energy infrastructure intact, then said "maybe we'll take over Kharg Island, and there's not a thing they can do about it." 7SPK US Could Seize Kharg Island, Reinstate Iran Naval Blockade - Trump Whether that's a negotiating threat or something else entirely, it signals that Iran's last major economic lever outside the strait itself is now on the table. The IRGC responded with claimed strikes on 85 targets across Bahrain and Kuwait, including the Fifth Fleet naval base, and said it shot down a US MQ-9. 10TSN IRGC Releases Footage of Strikes on US Bases in Bahrain, Kuwait

At Ankara, Trump called Iranian leadership "scum" and "cuckoo," declared the MoU finished, revoked Treasury's sanctions waiver, and said talks were a "waste of time." 3BBC Trump threatens more strikes on Iran as Tehran warns of 'fearless' response Then, in a later presser, he said he didn't think the war would "start again" and that Witkoff and Kushner "may continue negotiations." 7SPK US Could Seize Kharg Island, Reinstate Iran Naval Blockade - Trump The contradiction isn't an accident. Trump is trying to maximum-pressure Iran into better terms without formally restarting full-scale war. The problem is that Iran's new doctrine of striking Gulf neighbours as a proxy for hitting the US directly is widening the conflict geography regardless of what either side wants.

Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters issued a formal statement declaring that any country hosting US forces is now a legitimate target. 6MHR Iran warns of harsher response to any new US attacks That puts Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, all hosting major US installations, on explicit notice. The Gulf states that have been quietly navigating between Washington and Tehran just lost their ambiguity buffer. Iran also warned that any future strike on Iranian soil triggers two consequences: a full Hormuz closure and a minimum two-for-one retaliation ratio. 6MHR Iran warns of harsher response to any new US attacks Make of that what you will, but paired with today's strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait, it is not idle doctrine.

Saudi Arabia is exploring rerouting the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor through Syria rather than Israel, according to two sources familiar with the discussions. 1JPO Saudi Arabia explores IMEC route through Syria, sidestepping Israel, sources tell 'Post' The original plan ran freight by rail through Jordan and Israel to Haifa. A Syrian land bridge would bypass Israel entirely, which is a significant strategic loss for Jerusalem and a direct consequence of Hormuz instability killing normalisation momentum. The timing is pointed: Trump removed Syria from the US terrorism sponsor list today, pending a 45-day congressional review, 4JPM Trump removes Syria from US terrorism sponsor list, move still pending congressional approval which is precisely the diplomatic rehabilitation that makes a Syrian corridor commercially viable. The beneficiary is Ahmad al-Sharaa's government in Damascus, which is picking up geopolitical legitimacy and economic opportunity at the same time.

A CNN investigation found that senior US military commanders bypassed database warnings that intelligence used for early Iran strike targets was "severely out of date" before approving the strike on the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls' school in Minab, which killed nearly 200 people. 8CRD Pentagon officials ‘ignored warnings’ of outdated intel ahead of Minab school massacre: Report Commanders overrode the verification flags for "expediency." The Pentagon has still not ordered a formal inquiry, and the named officers identified by Iran have not been publicly addressed. 8CRD Pentagon officials ‘ignored warnings’ of outdated intel ahead of Minab school massacre: Report This story has been largely absorbed into the noise of renewed escalation, but it is the kind of accountability question that tends to compound rather than fade, and the absence of any Pentagon response is itself a data point.