TRUMP TELLS IRAN EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS IF THERE IS NO DEAL

• Israel's defence minister publicly threatened Mojtaba Khamenei by name during the funeral procession. Israel Katz issued a Hebrew-language statement saying any Iranian leader who "tries to push plans to destroy Israel again will also be thwarted," days after threatening more directly that Mojtaba was on Israel's target list 5AJE Khamenei family mourns, but Mojtaba’s absence fuels public insecurity. This is not background noise. It is a direct public threat to a sitting head of state during his father's funeral, and it reinforces why Mojtaba has not appeared publicly since March. Israeli security officials told Walla they believe the new supreme leader is "filled with an intense desire for revenge," with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Ahmad Vahidi actively fuelling that impulse 13JPO As the IRGC, Mojtaba Khamenei seek revenge, Israeli officials fear renewed Iran fighting - analysis. The IDF is reviewing offensive and defensive operational plans weekly in anticipation that the ceasefire does not hold 13JPO As the IRGC, Mojtaba Khamenei seek revenge, Israeli officials fear renewed Iran fighting - analysis.

• Rosatom confirmed its staff will return to Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant from mid-July 9CRD Rosatom staff set to resume work at Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant: Report. CEO Alexey Likhachev said Russia is "monitoring the Iran-US negotiations very closely" and stated flatly that resolving the nuclear issue "will not be done without us" 11SPK Rosatom Likely to Play Pivotal Role in Resolving Iran Nuclear Issue, CEO. Read this two ways. First, as a diplomatic signal: Russia is inserting itself as an indispensable party to any final nuclear arrangement, which gives Moscow leverage over the outcome and gives Iran a powerful argument for why the US cannot simply dictate terms. Second, as a practical development: Rosatom was building two new VVER-1000 reactors at Bushehr when the war started. Their return normalises Iran's civilian nuclear programme in the eyes of markets and regional states at exactly the moment Trump is demanding Iran surrender enriched material. This is not a coincidence.

• Hamas formally dissolved its Gaza governing body, with Emergency Committee head Mohammed al-Farra tendering his resignation and inviting the US-backed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) to assume authority 4GDN Hamas offers to hand over authority in Gaza to US-backed administration 8CRD Hamas dissolves Gaza govt, urges 'swift entry' of US-backed technocrats. The catch: Israel has not allowed the NCAG to enter Gaza. Israeli officials called the move "spin" and "stalling" 12TOI Hamas dissolves Gaza government ahead of eventual transfer of power to technocrats, while the Board of Peace said it would assess developments "by actions, not promises" 12TOI Hamas dissolves Gaza government ahead of eventual transfer of power to technocrats. Hamas has not committed to disarming, which is the core demand. This is a real political shift in the sense that Hamas has never before formally surrendered governing authority in Gaza. It is not a real political shift in the sense that the NCAG cannot enter, cannot govern, and cannot consolidate weapons it does not control. Watch for whether Israel uses the continued disarmament gap as justification for blocking NCAG entry indefinitely.

• A cargo ship was attacked 30 nautical miles southwest of Hodeidah, with armed assailants approaching by skiff before withdrawing to a larger vessel running without its automatic identification system 15APW British military says cargo ship reports being under attack off Yemen coast. No group claimed responsibility. The Houthis have publicly threatened to resume maritime attacks. This is a single-source report from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre and no group has claimed it, but the pattern fits Houthi harassment tactics precisely. Combined with last week's Iranian civilian flight into Sanaa and the near-confrontation with Saudi aircraft, the Red Sea southern approaches are not stabilised.

• Iran reappointed Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei as chief justice for another five-year term, confirmed via text message attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei 3AJE Iran reappoints a familiar face to powerful post during Khamenei funeral. Mohseni-Ejei has overseen near-daily executions of dissidents and protesters during the war, with international human rights organisations describing the pace as the highest since the late 1980s 3AJE Iran reappoints a familiar face to powerful post during Khamenei funeral. He explicitly called for revenge for Khamenei's killing and pledged to pursue "arrogant powers" through judicial mechanisms. The appointment signals continuity in Iran's internal repression posture. It also tells you something about the governing coalition Mojtaba is assembling from hiding: hard-line judiciary, IRGC commanders, and a public street that has just spent four days marching for revenge. That is not a coalition that negotiates from softness.

Oil barely moved, sitting at $72 Brent, down sharply from $93 a month ago. Markets are pricing a managed Hormuz, which is approximately what the US military secured during the blockade and what Trump described in some operational detail today 1JPO Trump warns US can wipe out Iran's power grid in 'small part of an afternoon' if deal not reached. Gold is at $4,176, off its conflict peak but still elevated. The Gold/Oil ratio at 60.90 is the key number: that historically elevated ratio reflects a market that has accepted lower oil as the near-term reality while still pricing unresolved systemic risk through gold. Defence stocks continue grinding higher: BAE Systems up roughly 5% since late June, Raytheon up 7% over the same period. The VIX at 15.73 is the calmest it has been since before the war. Either markets have correctly read the ceasefire as durable, or they are underpricing Trump's "finish the job" rhetoric. One of those readings will be wrong.

Trump's public description of the covert tanker extraction operation through Hormuz 1JPO Trump warns US can wipe out Iran's power grid in 'small part of an afternoon' if deal not reached explains, retroactively, why Western consumers did not see the $200-plus oil prices that were widely feared in March. More than 100 million barrels moved through the strait covertly over roughly six weeks, suppressing the price signal. That operation is now over. The supply cushion it created is gradually working through the system. Fuel prices in Western countries have eased considerably from conflict-period peaks and are no longer a front-page story. But the architecture that kept prices low, a temporary US naval operation exploiting destroyed Iranian radar, is not a sustainable supply mechanism. What comes next depends on whether the MoU produces a durable Hormuz arrangement or a fee regime Iran controls. Consumers are currently benefiting from a gap between those two outcomes that will not last indefinitely.