IRAN ENDS THE FUNERAL PAUSE BY HITTING THREE TANKERS

• Iran formally rejected the International Maritime Organization (IMO) draft proposal on Hormuz, calling it "politically motivated" and "beyond the Council's technical mandate" 4TTM Iran rejects IMO draft, defends legal position on Strait of Hormuz. Tehran reiterated it is not a party to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and does not accept the treaty-based transit passage regime, insisting instead on innocent passage rules that give the coastal state sovereign authority over its territorial waters 4TTM Iran rejects IMO draft, defends legal position on Strait of Hormuz. This is the legal scaffolding for the fee regime Iran has been describing all week. It is not new doctrine. It is newly consequential.

• Trump told Erdogan at the NATO summit in Ankara that Turkey was "more loyal" than NATO allies who refused to support the Iran war, specifically naming Italy, Germany, and France 5CRD Trump calls NATO 'paper tiger,' berates allies ahead of Ankara summit. He described NATO as a "paper tiger" and said he had been "testing" allies by asking for support. The significance here is not the insults, which are routine. It is the implied offer: Turkey backed the US position on Iran, at least partially, and is now being rewarded with sanctions relief and the prospect of F-35 fighter jets 8AJE Trump says will lift sanctions on Turkiye, ‘consider’ selling F-35s. Netanyahu immediately went on CNN to warn the sale would "upset the power balance in the Middle East" and called Erdogan "not exactly a model ally" of the US 1JPO Netanyahu: Turkey not 'friendly state' to US, F-35 sale would disrupt Mideast power balance. The Israel-Turkey-US triangle is now publicly fractured in a way that complicates any regional post-war architecture.

• The Khamenei funeral concluded with mass displays of grief in Tehran, Qom, and across Shia Iraq, drawing crowds the Financial Times estimated at up to 12 million in Tehran alone 13GDN Tehran teemed with Khamenei mourners, but divisions, and demands for change, remain 15BBC Resistance and revenge - Iran wanted to send a message with its farewell to Khamenei. The political analysis inside Iran is divided: some read the turnout as a mandate to intensify confrontation with the West, others see a population demanding change and an end to the war 13GDN Tehran teemed with Khamenei mourners, but divisions, and demands for change, remain. What is not in dispute is that Iran's government successfully staged one of the largest public gatherings in its history without disorder, and that the message delivered through state media throughout was "resistance and revenge" 15BBC Resistance and revenge - Iran wanted to send a message with its farewell to Khamenei. Mojtaba Khamenei is due to be formally confirmed as supreme leader following the burial in Mashhad. He has still not appeared publicly.

• A British detained couple in Iran are now in critical condition. Craig and Lindsay Foreman have been on hunger strike for nine and eight weeks respectively 11BBC British hunger strike couple detained in Iran 'denied medical care'. Lindsay Foreman has lost more than 14kg and is suffering severe vertigo and tremors. Medication and basic supplies sent by the British Embassy in Tehran have been withheld, described by the family as "a direct violation of a formal guarantee" given to the British ambassador 11BBC British hunger strike couple detained in Iran 'denied medical care'. Their son is meeting UK Members of Parliament on Wednesday. This is the kind of case that becomes a diplomatic flashpoint fast if one of them dies in custody during active peace negotiations.

• Macron visited Damascus on Tuesday in the first trip by a major Western leader since Ahmad al-Sharaa came to power, signing agreements to restore French-Syrian diplomatic relations and discussing expanded security cooperation 7CRD Sharaa hosts Macron as terror attack hits Syrian capital 10TOI Explosions rock Damascus, wounding 18, near French president’s hotel. Two explosive devices detonated near his hotel while he was in his meeting, injuring 18 people 10TOI Explosions rock Damascus, wounding 18, near French president’s hotel. No group claimed responsibility. Macron pressed on regardless. The visit is substantively significant because France has been the leading European voice for reintegrating Syria, and restoring ambassadors formalises that pivot. It is worth noting that Sharaa is a former al-Qaeda affiliate who rebranded his organisation twice before taking power 7CRD Sharaa hosts Macron as terror attack hits Syrian capital, a detail that sits uncomfortably alongside Macron's praise of Syrian "dignity and courage."

Oil jumped about 3% on Tuesday to $74.40 Brent, the sharpest single-day move in weeks, and for once the headlines and the price are telling the same story 2FOX Iran attacks ships in Strait of Hormuz days after Trump gave Tehran 'a week off' for Khamenei funeral 9AJE Ships attacked in the Strait of Hormuz: What that means for ongoing talks. Three tankers struck, the Omani corridor visibly collapsing, Iran announcing it will charge for passage: markets repriced Hormuz risk in a single session. The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) climbed to 42.19, up from 40.33 the day prior, reflecting rising uncertainty about near-term supply. Gold pulled back slightly to $4,144, which is unusual when geopolitical risk spikes. The gold retreat alongside the oil jump suggests traders were rotating rather than panicking. The Frontline tanker stock was up on the day, reflecting the grim logic that tanker operators profit from risk premiums in exactly these conditions. Defence stocks were broadly flat. The TA-125 (Tel Aviv's main equity index) dropped nearly 2%, the clearest single-market signal that someone is pricing escalation risk on the Israeli side specifically.

The oil price jump will feed through to pump prices within days, not weeks. The Brent move from $72 to $74 is not dramatic in isolation, but it lands on top of an already-unresolved Hormuz governance dispute, with the Omani corridor now effectively unusable under Iranian pressure. The more important number for Western consumers is the trajectory: if the MoU negotiating process stalls or collapses after the Mashhad burial, and Iran moves to formalise its fee regime, the oil price recovery from the war's $93 peak could reverse quickly. European governments that sold the current fuel price relief as a diplomatic dividend are now exposed to the argument that they have no durable architecture to protect it. The UK, whose Maritime Trade Operations centre has been tracking and publicising every strike, is in the most awkward position: its naval mine-clearing operation in the southern corridor is now running directly against the corridor Iran just demonstrated it can shut by drone.