TRUMP SAYS TALKS ARE ON AND THE CEASEFIRE IS DEAD. BOTH CANNOT BE FULLY TRUE.

• Iran struck at least two tankers near Hormuz this week, including a Qatari vessel and what is reported to be a Saudi vessel 2CRD Qatari officials visit Iran as mediators scramble to save Islamabad MoU. Iran did not formally claim responsibility but effectively admitted it by condemning ships that violated its self-declared maritime regulations. Qatar called the attack on its vessel "unacceptable" and said it holds Iran "fully legally responsible." Iran's foreign ministry fired back that Qatar's statement was "contrary to the principle of good neighborliness" 2CRD Qatari officials visit Iran as mediators scramble to save Islamabad MoU. That exchange, between a country mediating for you and a country shooting at your ships, captures the impossible geometry Doha is navigating.

• US Central Command (CENTCOM) says it has now struck approximately 170 targets inside Iran since Tuesday 1AJE Trump hints at further Iran negotiations after exchange of fire over Hormuz. That figure, from CENTCOM itself, represents a significant campaign even by the standards of this war. The targets are described as sites connected to Iran's ability to threaten Hormuz navigation, meaning coastal missile systems, naval assets, and associated command infrastructure. Iranian sources reported strikes near the country's sole nuclear power plant 13APW US launches new airstrikes on Iran and Tehran targets Gulf states, which the US has not confirmed. If true, that is a significant threshold. Single-source reporting on this; treat with appropriate caution.

• Israel is lobbying hard for a green light to rejoin strikes, and is using an alleged Iranian assassination plot against Trump as leverage 5CRD Israel pressuring Washington for 'green light' to attack Iran, claims Tehran plotting Trump assassination: Report3TOI Trump says US will continue holding talks with Iran, but ceasefire is over. The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that Israel shared intelligence with Washington about a "fresh Iranian plan" to kill Trump 5CRD Israel pressuring Washington for 'green light' to attack Iran, claims Tehran plotting Trump assassination: Report. Iran's UN mission did not respond to requests for comment. Trump himself said at the NATO summit that he is "on every list" 5CRD Israel pressuring Washington for 'green light' to attack Iran, claims Tehran plotting Trump assassination: Report. Whether the intelligence is solid or a Tel Aviv-shaped nudge designed to harden Washington's posture toward Tehran is genuinely unclear. What is clear is that Israel has not yet been given permission to participate, and Trump appears to want this round kept bilateral.

• Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new supreme leader, was again absent from his father's burial in Mashhad 9TOI Khamenei buried after dayslong funeral procession as successor son remains out of sight. He has not appeared publicly since his appointment in early March. He is reportedly recovering from serious injuries sustained in the February 28 strikes, and security services are limiting his exposure 9TOI Khamenei buried after dayslong funeral procession as successor son remains out of sight. The absence is being carefully managed by the regime, but it creates a legitimacy vacuum at exactly the moment Iran needs to project unified leadership. The new leader issuing only written statements while the country is under active bombardment is not a stable arrangement indefinitely.

• Turkey's strategic rise is now an explicit Israeli concern, with Netanyahu publicly lobbying against an F-35 sale to Ankara 6JPO As Iran fades, Turkey emerges as Israel's biggest strategic threat. A report citing senior Israeli officials and former national security adviser Giora Eiland frames Turkey as building a "Sunni ring of fire" to replace Iran's Shia equivalent 6JPO As Iran fades, Turkey emerges as Israel's biggest strategic threat. Separately, a report from i24News, cited by The Cradle, claims that Vice President JD Vance blocked a CIA and Mossad-backed Kurdish ground invasion of Iran at the war's outset by leaking operational details to Turkish officials 8CRD Erdogan, JD Vance 'blocked' CIA-Mossad op for Kurdish invasion of Iran: Report. This is single-source, contested reporting, but it is consistent with the broader pattern of Turkish obstruction of operations that could destabilise its border region.

The market story today is Brent sitting at $76.11, essentially flat on the week despite an active US bombing campaign and a functionally closed strait 7AJE US-Iran escalation threatens oil supply recovery, warns IEA. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned Friday that renewed escalation threatens the global energy supply recovery, noting that Hormuz had been carrying roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas before the war 7AJE US-Iran escalation threatens oil supply recovery, warns IEA. Following the MoU and the brief strait reopening, global supply rose 4.1 million barrels per day in June, but remains 9.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels 7AJE US-Iran escalation threatens oil supply recovery, warns IEA. Markets are clearly pricing a return to the MoU, not a permanent closure. That bet may be correct, but it is a bet.

The Gold/Oil ratio at 57.42 remains historically elevated, with gold at over $4,100 still pricing systemic risk that the oil price is not. The OVX, the oil volatility index, has come down from its recent peak to 45.05, meaning options traders are slightly less panicked than yesterday. Shipping stocks are quietly telling a different story: the Frontline tanker stock rose again today, and the shipping exchange-traded fund (BOAT) is up. Tanker operators are not pricing peace. They are pricing scarcity premium for the vessels willing to run the risk.

The IEA's Friday warning is the most important thing your government is probably not explaining to you. The agency now explicitly says the energy recovery that followed the June 17 MoU is being threatened by the resumed fighting, and that its forecast of a 4.62 million barrel per day surplus in 2027 was built on an assumption of Hormuz returning to full operation 7AJE US-Iran escalation threatens oil supply recovery, warns IEA. That assumption is now in doubt. For Western households, this matters because energy relief since mid-June was real but fragile. Heating oil is already back up from its post-MoU lows. If the strait stays functionally closed through July, expect that pressure to show up in bills and at the pump before August.