TRUMP WEIGHED GOING BACK TO WAR. HE CHOSE TALKS, FOR NOW.

• Iran flatly denied that any direct or indirect US-Iran talks are happening in Doha, even as Witkoff and Kushner met with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim and Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani on the same day Iran's delegation held its own trilateral meetings with Qatari and Pakistani mediators 3TTM In Doha, Iran tends to frozen funds as US claims talks that are not happening7PTV Doha talks focused on US violations of MoU, frozen assets: Iran’s deputy FM. Iran's position: Gharibabadi is in Doha to manage frozen asset logistics under Article 11, not to negotiate with Americans. A monitoring working group for MoU implementation was formally established, with a direct communication channel to be set up by Thursday 7PTV Doha talks focused on US violations of MoU, frozen assets: Iran’s deputy FM. That working group is now the institutional home for Iranian grievances about US violations. Watch for what Iran files through it.

• US-Saudi relations have hit their worst point of the war. The WSJ reported that Riyadh initially refused to allow the US to use its bases for "Project Freedom," the operation aimed at breaking Iran's Hormuz control by escorting ships through alternative routes 5TOI US reportedly mulls pulling troops from Saudi Arabia as ties sour over Iran war. Saudi refusal forced the US to abort the mission initially, and Trump responded by threatening to withhold missile interceptors Saudi Arabia was using to shoot down Iranian drones and missiles 5TOI US reportedly mulls pulling troops from Saudi Arabia as ties sour over Iran war. Riyadh eventually relented and the operation resumed covertly, but the damage is lasting. Secretary of State Marco Rubio skipped Saudi Arabia entirely on his recent Gulf tour, visiting the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain instead, which Riyadh read as a deliberate snub 5TOI US reportedly mulls pulling troops from Saudi Arabia as ties sour over Iran war. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman separately declined Trump's invitation to the G7 in France 5TOI US reportedly mulls pulling troops from Saudi Arabia as ties sour over Iran war. The US is now reportedly considering reducing its military footprint in the kingdom. Saudi Arabia lobbied Trump not to start this war, predicted exactly what happened, and is now watching the relationship absorb the consequences.

• Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz said Tuesday that target lists are ready and fighter jets await only an order, adding that new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is "marked for death" 4AJE What military capabilities does Iran possess as it negotiates with US?. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that any threat against Iranian leadership "will receive immediate powerful response" 4AJE What military capabilities does Iran possess as it negotiates with US?. This exchange happened on the same day the US was in Doha pursuing diplomacy. Israel is openly positioning itself as the actor most likely to blow up the negotiations, and it is doing so with enough public specificity that it functions as pressure on Trump: either produce a deal that constrains Iran, or watch Jerusalem act unilaterally. The WSJ reporting on Trump's internal war deliberations likely reflects, at least in part, Israeli pressure feeding into Washington's internal debate.

• Strait of Hormuz traffic recorded 34 vessel crossings on June 30, split evenly between inbound and outbound, but routing remains fragmented across Iranian, Omani, IMO-designated, and unidentified paths 8AAM Strait of Hormuz traffic steady despite fragmented routing, security risks. The IMO's incident tracker lists 49 confirmed incidents in the strait and wider Middle East region as of June 30, including a newly confirmed physical attack on the vessel Bochem Marengo, and 14 confirmed seafarer fatalities 8AAM Strait of Hormuz traffic steady despite fragmented routing, security risks. The strait is moving ships. It is not moving them safely or predictably.

• Iran's internal press is more hawkish on Hormuz than its negotiators are letting on. The newspaper Khorasan published an analysis arguing that "preserving power in the Strait is more important than implementing the agreement," and framed the current dynamic as strategically humiliating for the US because Iran can strike American assets and Washington does not respond in kind 1TTM Energy, economic pressure brought US closer to an agreement. Kayhan called technical negotiations a "trap" that exhausts Iran's team without delivering results 1TTM Energy, economic pressure brought US closer to an agreement. These are not fringe outlets. They reflect real currents inside the Iranian system. Qalibaf's own language on Hormuz, calling it "a divine gift" and "our greatest instrument of power," sits comfortably alongside those editorials 2TTM Qalibaf says Iran won't give up Hormuz Strait. The negotiating team may want a deal. The institutional culture around them does not want to give up the lever.

Oil is down again, Brent at $71.48, which is now almost $24 below its early June level. The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has dropped from 62 at the start of June to 40.76 today, which is markets pricing out the acute disruption scenario at speed [[market data]]. That move looks optimistic against a backdrop where Iran just suspended negotiations, Trump privately considered resuming full-scale war, and 49 maritime incidents are confirmed in the strait this month alone.

The Gold/Oil ratio at 59.57 is the number worth pausing on. Gold at $4,073 while oil sits at $71 means the smart hedging money is still positioned for a shock even as crude falls. That divergence, oil pricing in stability while gold prices in risk, is not a contradiction. It is two different markets answering two different questions. Oil traders are watching barrels flow. Gold holders are watching the political calendar.

Defence stocks continue their quiet grind upward: Rheinmetall up 6% on the week, the Defence ETF (ITA) at an all-time high for this conflict period. Markets believe the war industry keeps winning regardless of whether the diplomacy holds.

The US-Saudi deterioration is the diplomatic story with the most direct implications for Western energy security. Saudi Arabia is the swing producer that backstops global oil supply when Iranian barrels are disrupted. If that relationship is now structurally damaged, the insurance policy that kept oil from spiking past $100 is thinner than it was six months ago 5TOI US reportedly mulls pulling troops from Saudi Arabia as ties sour over Iran war. That is not a problem today. It is a problem the next time something goes wrong in the strait.

For consumers, Brent below $72 and RBOB gasoline futures at $2.94 are feeding downward pressure into pump prices, with a lag of several weeks. The political incentive to keep the oil sanctions waiver running past August 21 is strong, but the waiver's expiry now sits inside a negotiating window that Trump has quietly acknowledged may extend past the MoU deadline 10TOI Trump weighed return to full war against Iran, but prefers diplomatic efforts, report. If the waiver expires before a deal is done, the oil price relief reverses fast.