IRAN IS WINNING THE HORMUZ ROUTING WAR WITHOUT FIRING A SHOT

The Western strategy since the ceasefire has been to normalize shipping through an Omani southern corridor, gradually eroding Iran's leverage over the strait. That strategy is collapsing. Eight vessels attempted the route in the past 48 hours and turned back. Two switched to the Iranian-designated lane after IRGC radio warnings alone. Four retreated into the Gulf entirely 5MHR Ships use Iran-desingated route in Hormuz Strait 6GDN Iran seeks to tighten control over strait of Hormuz alongside Khamenei funeral. Iran's ambassador to China then made the destination explicit at the World Peace Forum: "service fees" are coming to Hormuz, with preferential rates for Beijing and "friendly" countries 7CRD Iran to grant China, 'friendly' countries 'special consideration' on Hormuz fees. The 60-day free-passage window in the June 15 MoU runs out before any of this becomes a treaty violation. When it expires, this is just the new normal.

His three brothers prayed beside the coffin Sunday. Mojtaba did not appear 1AJE Sons of Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei attend funeral, but Mojtaba is absent 2BBC Iran's supreme leader absent as senior officials attend ayatollah's funeral. The official line is Israeli assassination threat, which is credible given Israel's defense minister has publicly called him "marked for death." But Iran's new supreme leader has issued no public statement since March, his location is unconfirmed by his own government, and the funeral was the obvious moment to change that 11GDN Calls for killing of Trump at funeral of Iran supreme leader Ali Khamenei. He did not take it. The security explanation and the governance-problem explanation are not mutually exclusive.

The Houthis killed 16 Yemeni government troops in Hodeidah governorate using drones, snipers, and mortars in their most lethal ground assault in years 8AJE Houthi rebels kill 16 Yemeni government troops in fiercest clashes in years. Separately, UKMTO reported a vessel sending a distress signal after being attacked off Hodeidah 6GDN Iran seeks to tighten control over strait of Hormuz alongside Khamenei funeral. The ceasefire between the US and Iran does not cover Yemen's internal war, and the combination of resumed ground offensives and maritime harassment is a reminder that the southern Red Sea has not stabilized. The Houthis are not sitting this period out.

Transportation Minister Miri Regev confirmed for the first time that Israel deployed an Iron Dome battery and IDF troops to the UAE during the conflict 12JPO Israel sent Iron Dome system, team to UAE during recent Iran war, Miri Regev confirms. The detail that deserves more attention: Iran fired several hundred more ballistic and cruise missiles at the UAE than at Israel, plus thousands of drones 12JPO Israel sent Iron Dome system, team to UAE during recent Iran war, Miri Regev confirms. Most were intercepted, but some hit military and civilian targets. That targeting distribution tells you something about Iranian operational priorities that Western coverage has largely glossed over.

Hezbollah and Hamas leadership met Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi on the funeral sidelines 3AAM Iranian parliament speaker says implementing memorandum ‘difficult but possible’ 10CRD Regional resistance factions meet with Iran FM on sidelines of Khamenei’s funeral. Araghchi told the Hezbollah delegation Iran is "seriously pursuing" Article 1 of the MoU, which requires Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon 10CRD Regional resistance factions meet with Iran FM on sidelines of Khamenei’s funeral. Israel has publicly said it will stay in southern Lebanon regardless. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, meeting Hamas separately, described MoU implementation as "difficult but possible" and said diplomacy must consolidate "the achievements of resistance forces" 3AAM Iranian parliament speaker says implementing memorandum ‘difficult but possible’. That is not the language of a side that thinks it lost the war.