THE GENERALS WIN, TALKS COLLAPSE

• Israel is waiting for a green light that may be coming. Defence Minister Israel Katz said publicly that Israel is ready to resume fighting and is awaiting US permission to strike Iranian energy sites and Mojtaba Khamenei personally 1TOI Trump says he ordered US Navy to ‘shoot and kill’ boats mining the Strait of Hormuz. That is an extraordinary public statement. It means Israeli targeting packages for the supreme leader are on the shelf, ready to execute. Whether Trump gives that green light depends almost entirely on whether he concludes that the IRGC generals will never negotiate seriously.

• Two Israeli Air Force F-15 technicians have been indicted for spying for Iran. The pair were arrested in March and are charged with passing the locations of the IDF Chief of Staff and two cabinet ministers to Iranian intelligence, along with technical information about fighter jet systems 6IHY Two F-15 technicians arrested on suspicion of spying for Iran. The handlers apparently cut contact when the soldiers refused weapons missions, but the soldiers kept trying to re-establish contact for money 6IHY Two F-15 technicians arrested on suspicion of spying for Iran. The indictment is now public. The security implication worth noting: if Iran had real-time location data on senior Israeli military and political figures during the war, that changes the assessment of how much Iranian intelligence penetration of Israeli institutions persists.

• The UN Development Programme put a number on the humanitarian cost today. More than 30 million people will be pushed into poverty by the war's effects, including fertiliser shortages hitting farmers right at planting season and energy costs destroying remittances 3CRD US-Israeli war against Iran pushes over 30 million into poverty: UN. The UNDP's administrator said 0.5 to 0.8 percent of global GDP has already been destroyed 3CRD US-Israeli war against Iran pushes over 30 million into poverty: UN. "Even if the war would stop tomorrow, those effects you already have them," he said 3CRD US-Israeli war against Iran pushes over 30 million into poverty: UN. That figure matters because it is not a projection. It is a sunk cost.

• Iran's parliament has drafted a law formalising Hormuz toll collection, requiring payment in Iranian rials before any vessel is granted passage, and mandating that all contracts reference the "Persian Gulf" by name 5CRD IEA chief warns Hormuz crisis wiped 13m barrels of oil per day from global markets. This is significant because it signals Iran is not thinking about reopening the strait as a goodwill gesture. It is thinking about turning it into permanent revenue infrastructure. Meanwhile, Indonesia's foreign minister floated doing the same thing with the Strait of Malacca 10SPK Indonesia Eyes Iran’s Strategy to Monetize Malacca Strait. Iran's strategy is already being watched as a template by other countries sitting on chokepoints.

• The UK's 30-nation Hormuz planning conference wrapped up at Northwood. Eight RAF Typhoons based in Qatar are the centrepiece of the UK offer, alongside mine-hunting drones and specialist divers 2GDN UK prepared to deploy RAF Typhoons to keep strait of Hormuz open after Iran war. Germany, Norway, South Korea, and Australia attended. The US reportedly was "kept abreast" but did not formally participate 2GDN UK prepared to deploy RAF Typhoons to keep strait of Hormuz open after Iran war. The coalition's mandate is explicitly post-conflict: they will not force the strait open against Iranian resistance, only protect shipping once a sustainable ceasefire exists 2GDN UK prepared to deploy RAF Typhoons to keep strait of Hormuz open after Iran war. That is the right call strategically and also a quiet signal to Washington that Europe is not joining another fight. It is preparing for the cleanup.

The market snapshot is three days old, so treat this with appropriate caution. What the data does show: oil has slid from March highs to $93 Brent, and the gold-to-oil ratio has climbed further, sitting at 52.68 ounces per barrel. Gold holding near $4,720 while oil drifts down is not a sign of optimism. It is a sign that investors are hedging systemic risk rather than just energy exposure. Defence stocks continue their quiet bleed from March peaks, down 10 to 13 percent across major contractors. Markets are still pricing a deal as the base case. The generals running Iran, and Trump's shoot-to-kill order, are not priced in.

Lufthansa is cutting 20,000 short-haul flights through October, with jet fuel having more than doubled from roughly $99 to as high as $209 per barrel since late February 12AJE Lufthansa cuts 20,000 flights as Iran war causes jet fuel shortage. The airline says it has supply secured "for the coming weeks" but is actively working to hold that line through summer 12AJE Lufthansa cuts 20,000 flights as Iran war causes jet fuel shortage. The IEA's Fatih Birol said Thursday that 75 percent of Europe's jet fuel previously came from West Asian refineries, and that supply is now "basically zero" 5CRD IEA chief warns Hormuz crisis wiped 13m barrels of oil per day from global markets. He warned governments may need to consider reducing air travel if disruptions persist 5CRD IEA chief warns Hormuz crisis wiped 13m barrels of oil per day from global markets. The EU's energy commissioner put the daily cost to Europe at 500 million euros and said even the best-case scenario is "still bad" 12AJE Lufthansa cuts 20,000 flights as Iran war causes jet fuel shortage. For travellers, fewer routes and fuel surcharges are already arriving. The flight cuts are not the ceiling. They are the opening move.