TRUMP PULLS THE PLUG ON ISLAMABAD

• Netanyahu ordered a major IDF strike on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, less than ten days after the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire took effect on April 16 2SPK Netanyahu Orders Major Strike Against Hezbollah Targets in Lebanon. Hezbollah had already announced its "first military operation" since the ceasefire began on Tuesday, citing over 200 Israeli violations including combat aircraft, drones, artillery, and residential strikes 2SPK Netanyahu Orders Major Strike Against Hezbollah Targets in Lebanon. This is a ceasefire in name only. The timing, coming simultaneously with the Islamabad collapse, is not coincidental. Netanyahu gains freedom of manoeuvre in Lebanon precisely when Washington's diplomatic attention is elsewhere.

• Iran inflicted far worse damage on US military bases than publicly acknowledged. An NBC News investigation, citing sources, found Iranian retaliatory strikes hit warehouses, command headquarters, aircraft hangars, satellite communications infrastructure, runways, radar systems, and dozens of aircraft across seven Middle Eastern countries 5AAM Iran inflicted ‘extensive’ damage to US bases than previously disclosed: Report. Pentagon cost to repair: billions of dollars, according to the report. Republican congressional aides privately said they have been asking for weeks and "not getting specifics, even as the Pentagon is asking for a record high budget" 5AAM Iran inflicted ‘extensive’ damage to US bases than previously disclosed: Report. This is the detail buried in the news cycle: the Pentagon has been managing perception of the war's costs as aggressively as it has been managing the war itself.

• US war costs have now passed $61 billion, based on the Iran War Cost Tracker methodology derived from a Pentagon report to Congress that put the first six days at $11.3 billion and subsequent days at $1 billion each 8SPK Cost of US Operation Against Iran Exceeds $61Bln - Reports. At the same time, US crude oil exports are projected to hit a record 5.2 million barrels per day in April, up roughly a third from March, as Asian buyers scramble to replace Gulf supplies 6CRD US oil exports hit record high amid continued closure of Hormuz. US energy companies are profiting directly from the disruption they helped create.

• A Pentagon email leaked showing the US threatened Falklands sovereignty and Spain's NATO membership as punishment for allied countries refusing to grant basing and overflight rights for the Iran war 16ABC Leaked Pentagon email shows US wants to punish NATO allies over Iran war. The UK government responded that the Falklands' status is "unchanged" and sovereignty "rests with the UK" 16ABC Leaked Pentagon email shows US wants to punish NATO allies over Iran war. Spain's PM Sánchez said his government "does not work with emails" and that Spain would operate "within the framework of international legality" 16ABC Leaked Pentagon email shows US wants to punish NATO allies over Iran war. This is a single-source report from ABC Australia citing a US official and Reuters, so treat with some caution. But if accurate, it means Washington is now formally considering punishing NATO allies who oppose this war. That is a genuinely different category of alliance pressure.

• Iran resumed commercial flights from Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport for the first time since February 28 7AJE Iran resumes commercial flights from Tehran airport. Initial routes: Istanbul, Muscat, and Medina. More to follow for Baku, Najaf, Baghdad, and Doha. Iran Air also resumed its first domestic route, Tehran to Mashhad 7AJE Iran resumes commercial flights from Tehran airport. This is a quiet but meaningful signal of normalisation from the Iranian side, and sits awkwardly alongside Trump's decision to walk away from talks today. You don't restart your international airport if you're planning to resume the war next week.

The market data is from yesterday, but the signal is clear. Oil is holding firm: Brent at $105, WTI at $94, with RBOB gasoline at $3.46 per gallon in the futures market and The Cradle reporting US pump prices now averaging above $4 per gallon for the first time in four years 6CRD US oil exports hit record high amid continued closure of Hormuz. The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) at 75.8 has eased from its 90-plus March peaks but remains elevated, meaning traders are still paying serious money to hedge against oil shocks. Gold at $4,722 continues to signal broad systemic anxiety rather than pure energy-risk pricing. The genuinely striking number: US crude export projections up 33 percent month-on-month, with 68 empty tankers now en route to load US crude for Asia 6CRD US oil exports hit record high amid continued closure of Hormuz. Markets are pricing a prolonged disruption, not a resolution. The equities rally and defence stock decline together say: no imminent resumption of strikes, but no deal either. The Islamabad collapse tonight should push oil higher when markets open.

US pump prices crossing $4 per gallon is now a political problem for Trump, with his approval ratings already falling on cost-of-living concerns 6CRD US oil exports hit record high amid continued closure of Hormuz. The irony is structural: US energy companies are booking record profits on the crisis, but American consumers are paying for it at the pump. Europe's jet fuel problem has not gone away. Lufthansa's 20,000 flight cuts remain in effect, and the International Energy Agency's Fatih Birol warning about six weeks of European jet fuel reserves was issued earlier this month 7AJE Iran resumes commercial flights from Tehran airport. With Hormuz still functionally closed, that clock is still running. Meanwhile, Panama Canal crossing costs have reached as high as $4 million for a single slot reservation, as global shipping reroutes away from the Persian Gulf 17APW Prices to expedite Panama Canal crossing skyrocket after Strait of Hormuz closure. Goods moving between China and Europe or the US East Coast now either pay extortionate Canal fees or add weeks to their voyage time. That cost does not stay in the shipping industry. It moves into consumer prices.