THE LAST HOURS OF THE CEASEFIRE

• The nuclear gap is closing, but it is still a gap. Pakistani government sources told Anadolu that the US has privately signalled willingness to reduce its demand for a 20-year enrichment moratorium to 10 years, if Iran provides "strong guarantees" 11AAM US conveys 'conditional willingness' to 10-year moratorium on Iran's uranium enrichment: Pakistani sources. Iran has proposed five years 11AAM US conveys 'conditional willingness' to 10-year moratorium on Iran's uranium enrichment: Pakistani sources. So the positions are 10 versus 5, with the shape of a deal visible in the middle, except Iran has also publicly rejected transferring enriched uranium to a third country 11AAM US conveys 'conditional willingness' to 10-year moratorium on Iran's uranium enrichment: Pakistani sources, which is a separate US demand. Russia offered to hold the uranium; Washington said no 11AAM US conveys 'conditional willingness' to 10-year moratorium on Iran's uranium enrichment: Pakistani sources. The gap is narrower than it looks in the headlines. Whether it is narrow enough to cross tonight is a different question entirely.

• The IEA is calling this the biggest energy crisis in recorded history, and the numbers back that up. IEA head Fatih Birol told Anadolu that 84 energy facilities across the region have been damaged, 34 of them seriously or very seriously 7AAM 34 energy facilities in Gulf seriously damaged, head of IEA says. The conflict has wiped out 13 million barrels of daily crude production in a world that uses 100 million 7AAM 34 energy facilities in Gulf seriously damaged, head of IEA says. More than 200 crude tankers and 10 liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers are stranded in the Gulf with full cargo and nowhere to go 7AAM 34 energy facilities in Gulf seriously damaged, head of IEA says. Here is the part that should concern everyone: Birol said even if Hormuz reopened tomorrow, production at damaged facilities would take at least two years to recover 7AAM 34 energy facilities in Gulf seriously damaged, head of IEA says. The crisis is already structural, not just situational.

• Iran's economy is visibly collapsing. Two million Iranians have lost their jobs since the war began, according to Iran's own Deputy Work and Social Security Minister 3BBC Iran sees mass redundancies from war with US and Israel. The internet blackout, now in its 52nd day, has cost the economy over $1.8 billion by official Iranian estimates 3BBC Iran sees mass redundancies from war with US and Israel. The human detail worth holding: hundreds of thousands of Iranian women, who disproportionately relied on Instagram and digital platforms to run small businesses, have been cut off from their entire customer base 3BBC Iran sees mass redundancies from war with US and Israel. The internet was shut down, in part, for the same reason it was shut down during domestic protests: to limit organised resistance. The war and the surveillance state are converging.

• Ansarallah (the Houthi movement) has made its position unambiguous. Leader Abdel Malik al-Houthi said in a speech Tuesday that Yemen "is not neutral," and that if the US and Israel resume attacks on Iran, Ansarallah will resume military operations 2CRD Ansarallah chief vows ‘escalation for escalation’ if US-Israeli war on Iran reignites. Specifically: "Our direction is to escalate if the enemy escalates." 2CRD Ansarallah chief vows ‘escalation for escalation’ if US-Israeli war on Iran reignites The Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) entered the war in late March and have carried out operations targeting Israel in coordination with Hezbollah and Iranian forces 2CRD Ansarallah chief vows ‘escalation for escalation’ if US-Israeli war on Iran reignites. If the ceasefire collapses tonight, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the other major Gulf chokepoint, is back in play.

• Japan just ended eight decades of pacifism. Largely buried under the ceasefire coverage, Japan's cabinet lifted its ban on lethal weapons exports overnight, clearing the way to sell fighter jets, missiles, and warships to at least 17 countries 15AJE Japan lifts ban on lethal weapons exports in major shift of pacifist policy. Australia has already signed a $7 billion warship deal with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 15AJE Japan lifts ban on lethal weapons exports in major shift of pacifist policy. The Iran war is accelerating defence rearmament globally, and Japan's move is the most consequential single step in that direction since Germany restarted its own military spending. Japan will still restrict exports to active conflict zones, with undefined "special circumstances" exceptions 15AJE Japan lifts ban on lethal weapons exports in major shift of pacifist policy.

• Three former senior Israeli officials publicly called the war a failure. Former army chiefs Dan Halutz and Moshe Yaalon wrote in Haaretz that Israel has been "hijacked" by the Netanyahu government 6AAM Former senior Israeli officials say Netanyahu government ‘hijacked’ country, failed in Iran war. Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak wrote separately that none of the war's stated objectives were achieved: Hamas is in Gaza, Hezbollah is in Lebanon, the Tehran regime survived, and the nuclear and ballistic missile threats were not eliminated 6AAM Former senior Israeli officials say Netanyahu government ‘hijacked’ country, failed in Iran war. Barak described Israel as having become "a state subordinate to the United States, which imposed decisive operational and diplomatic decisions on it through harsh and sometimes humiliating directives." 6AAM Former senior Israeli officials say Netanyahu government ‘hijacked’ country, failed in Iran war These are not fringe voices. These are former chiefs of staff.

Oil is down noticeably from its March peak: Brent at $93, versus $112 a month ago, which looks counterintuitive given the ceasefire is expiring tonight. What markets are actually saying is that they still expect some kind of deal or extension, and they are pricing the ceasefire's survival at better-than-even odds. That is probably too optimistic given today's reporting, but markets tend to be the last to believe the worst.

The more honest signals: gold at $4,720 is holding near all-time highs, which is pure fear insurance. The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) at 82 is elevated, meaning options traders are charging a significant premium to hedge oil exposure. Defence stocks are drifting lower across the board, Lockheed Martin down from $627 in March to $572 today, Northrop Grumman from $707 to $618. That is a market that had priced in a longer war and is now hedging toward resolution. If the ceasefire collapses and strikes resume tonight, those positions reverse violently.

The agriculture basket (DBA) ticking up for the second consecutive week is the slow-moving signal most people are missing. Food inflation is not here yet. It is loading.

The IEA's joint emergency coordination group with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank is now actively providing financial support to developing countries absorbing the energy shock 7AAM 34 energy facilities in Gulf seriously damaged, head of IEA says. That structure being stood up is itself a signal: institutions do not build crisis machinery for problems they expect to resolve quickly. The FAO warned last week that a prolonged Hormuz closure could produce a global food "catastrophe," with 45 million more people facing acute food shortages if oil stays above $100 a barrel into mid-year 13AJE As Iran crisis drags on, fears of global food catastrophe grow. Global food prices are only up 2.4 percent so far, but that reflects last season's harvests 13AJE As Iran crisis drags on, fears of global food catastrophe grow. The input costs being absorbed right now will show up on shelves in the coming months. The countries most at risk include India, Bangladesh, Somalia, Sudan, and Egypt 13AJE As Iran crisis drags on, fears of global food catastrophe grow, but the inflationary pass-through to Western grocery prices is already in the pipeline.