IRAN'S HORMUZ OFFER EXPOSES A CRACK IN WASHINGTON

• Araghchi met Putin in St. Petersburg, and the Russian side brought serious players. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, presidential aide Yury Ushakov, and crucially the chief of Russia's military intelligence directorate Igor Kostyukov were all in the room 4SPK Putin Meets Iran’s Top Diplomat in St. Petersburg. Putin told Araghchi he received a personal message from Iran's supreme leader and that Russia would do "everything in its power" alongside regional states to help end the conflict 4SPK Putin Meets Iran’s Top Diplomat in St. Petersburg. No joint statement on uranium arrangements has emerged yet, but Kostyukov's presence at a foreign policy meeting is notable. Russia's military intelligence at an Iran diplomatic session is not routine.

• The hardliner poised to take Iran's nuclear brief has never made a concession in his life. Saeed Jalili, who led Iran's nuclear negotiations from 2007 to 2013 and ran for president three times on a platform of maximum resistance, is reportedly set to replace Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on the negotiating team after Ghalibaf was forced out for trying to bring the nuclear file into current talks 17FOX Iran turmoil erupts: Ultra-hardliner who mocked Trump poised to take over nuclear talks. Jalili heads the Stability Front, Iran's ultra-hardline faction. His appointment, if confirmed, would be a significant signal that the IRGC-aligned faction is tightening its grip on the diplomatic track, not loosening it. This is a single-source report from Iran International 17FOX Iran turmoil erupts: Ultra-hardliner who mocked Trump poised to take over nuclear talks, but it fits the pattern of internal power consolidation this edition has been tracking for weeks.

• Lebanon's ceasefire produced its deadliest day. Israeli strikes on Sunday killed 14 people, including two women and two children, and wounded 37 others 14GDN Lebanon health ministry says Israeli strikes kill 14 in deadliest day since ceasefire began. Hezbollah said it will not stop attacking Israeli troops inside Lebanon regardless of diplomatic pressure. Israel has now established a "yellow line" demarcating a ribbon of Lebanese territory roughly 10 kilometres deep where residents have been warned not to return, and is ordering evacuations from towns north of that line 14GDN Lebanon health ministry says Israeli strikes kill 14 in deadliest day since ceasefire began. The ceasefire is technically in force and extended to mid-May, but both sides are fighting inside it.

• The fertilizer problem is going to hit your food bill next year, not this one. Urea exports from the Gulf, roughly a third of global traded volumes, have stopped 9TOI Iran war fertilizer squeeze could spell trouble for next year’s grain harvests. India just booked record urea imports at nearly twice the price it paid two months ago. The crunch is not immediate because farmers are still planting this season's crops with existing stocks, but nitrogen fertilizer must be applied each season. If the strait remains closed through planting windows, next year's grain harvests face real yield hits 9TOI Iran war fertilizer squeeze could spell trouble for next year’s grain harvests. The 2022 Ukraine shock pushed food prices to multi-decade highs. Analysts say this supply crunch is steeper. Grain prices are currently too low for farmers to absorb the cost difference.

• Germany's exporters are now routing freight through Syria. With Fujairah congested and the Jeddah alternative costing four times more, German logistics firms are developing overland corridors through Turkey and Syria to reach Gulf customers 10AAM German exporters turn to Syria, Türkiye land routes as Hormuz crisis hits shipping. More than 50 percent of German companies with Gulf exposure are directly affected, and German exports to Gulf Cooperation Council states totalled 25 billion euros in 2025 10AAM German exporters turn to Syria, Türkiye land routes as Hormuz crisis hits shipping. The war is quietly reshaping trade geography in ways that will not reverse when the shooting stops.

The BBC confirmed Brent hit $107.26 on Monday, up nearly 2 percent on the day as the Islamabad talks confirmed their collapse 12BBC Oil prices rise as US-Iran peace talks stall. That is a 17 percent move in a week, from $91 to $107. The OVX at 75 remains elevated, but the directional move in crude tells you what traders actually think: the market had briefly priced in a deal and is now un-pricing it. The gold-to-oil ratio has compressed sharply to around 44 at current prices, compared to the 58 reading a week ago. Oil is catching up to gold's war premium. Asian equity markets are climbing anyway, with Japan's Nikkei up 14 percent in a month and South Korea's Kospi up over 20 percent 12BBC Oil prices rise as US-Iran peace talks stall. That divergence between rising equities and rising oil is unusual and probably unsustainable. One of those markets is misreading the situation.

Australia is in open fuel-security crisis. Foreign Minister Penny Wong is flying to Japan, China, and South Korea specifically to secure diesel, petrol, and fertiliser supplies after Energy Minister Chris Bowen confirmed national petrol reserves sit at around 44 days, well below the International Energy Agency's 90-day benchmark 20SKY Foreign Minister Penny Wong rushes to Asia in bid to secure fuel supplies as reserves fall short of global benchmark. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed the country is at Level 2 of the National Fuel Security Plan and has not ruled out escalating to Level 3 or 4 20SKY Foreign Minister Penny Wong rushes to Asia in bid to secure fuel supplies as reserves fall short of global benchmark. Fifty-seven percent of Australian voters now support increasing domestic oil and gas production even at the cost of net-zero targets, including 47 percent of Labor voters 20SKY Foreign Minister Penny Wong rushes to Asia in bid to secure fuel supplies as reserves fall short of global benchmark. That political pressure will land on Albanese's budget, which Treasury is attempting to finalise right now while the Hormuz closure remains unresolved 19ABC Treasury's impossible task: Prepare a budget as oil shock unfolds.

Egypt, meanwhile, just ended its emergency early-closing hours for shops and restaurants, a policy introduced in late March to cut energy consumption 15AAM Egypt ends early closing hours policy imposed amid energy crisis caused by Iran war. That is a small signal that Egypt believes the acute phase of the energy shock has passed, or that domestic political pressure from the tourism sector has become harder to ignore than the fuel import bill.