THE CEASEFIRE IS EXPIRING AND NOBODY IS AT THE TABLE

• Iranian proxies are burning Jewish sites in London. British counterterrorism police are investigating a coordinated arson campaign targeting synagogues and Jewish-linked facilities in northwest London, with a group called Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia claiming responsibility 2FOX UK chief rabbi says Jews targeted by ‘sustained campaign of violence and intimidation' after string of attacks. Police are investigating possible Iranian proxy links, and MI5 says it has disrupted more than 20 potentially lethal Iran-linked plots in the past year 2FOX UK chief rabbi says Jews targeted by ‘sustained campaign of violence and intimidation' after string of attacks. The group has also claimed synagogue attacks in Belgium and the Netherlands, and threatened to fly drones carrying hazardous substances at Israel's London embassy 2FOX UK chief rabbi says Jews targeted by ‘sustained campaign of violence and intimidation' after string of attacks. UK Chief Rabbi Ephraim Mirvis warned of "a sustained campaign of violence and intimidation gathering momentum." This is the European domestic front of the war, and it is escalating.

• North Korea fired four ballistic missiles on Sunday, its fourth launch this month. Fired from Sinpo, home to submarine-launched ballistic missile infrastructure, the missiles flew roughly 140 km before landing in the sea 13SKY North Korean missile launches intensify amid Iran conflict with experts warning Pyongyang is firing warning shots. South Korea convened an emergency security meeting. Analysts are reading this as Pyongyang signalling its deterrence credentials at a moment when the US is demonstrably occupied, and potentially positioning ahead of possible Trump-Kim talks 13SKY North Korean missile launches intensify amid Iran conflict with experts warning Pyongyang is firing warning shots. The Iran war's central lesson for Pyongyang: nuclear weapons are what keep you off the target list. Expect North Korea to keep making that point loudly.

• The US reversed its own pledge on Russian oil sanctions, and Zelensky is furious. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday the Russian oil waiver would not be extended. On Friday, the US Treasury extended it anyway through May 16 12RTN US reverses on pledge not to renew Russian oil waiver. The justification was easing the energy supply crunch caused by Hormuz 10BBC Zelensky condemns US extension of Russian sanctions waiver. Zelensky said Russia's 110-ship shadow fleet could earn Moscow $10 billion from the extension, directly funding strikes on Ukrainian cities 10BBC Zelensky condemns US extension of Russian sanctions waiver. Russia is making an estimated $150 million per day in additional revenue from the Iran war's energy shock 12RTN US reverses on pledge not to renew Russian oil waiver. The US is now, in practice, subsidising Russia's war in Ukraine to manage the economic fallout of its own war in Iran.

• Israel is keeping a 10-kilometre military buffer zone inside Lebanon, permanently. Netanyahu confirmed Israeli forces are staying inside southern Lebanon in a "security strip" described as "more intense and more solid" than anything before 7AJE Does Israel’s ‘Yellow Line’ violate the Lebanon ceasefire?. Senior Israeli military officials explicitly said the "Yellow Line" model from Gaza will be replicated, with 55 Lebanese towns and villages inside the zone barred to returning residents 7AJE Does Israel’s ‘Yellow Line’ violate the Lebanon ceasefire?. Hezbollah's Secretary-General Naim Qassem said fighters "will remain in the field with their hands on the trigger" and will respond to violations as they occur 9CRD Hezbollah chief vows resistance will respond to Israeli violations ‘as they occur’. The 10-day Lebanon ceasefire may end with Israeli forces occupying Lebanese territory and Hezbollah promising to shoot anyone who gets close. That is not a stable arrangement.

• An Iranian-American arms broker was arrested at Los Angeles International Airport on Friday. Shamim Mafi, 44, a California resident with Iranian nationality, was charged with brokering a $70.6 million deal to sell Iranian Mohajer-6 armed drones to Sudan's military, along with 55,000 bomb fuses and up to 240 million rounds of AK-47 ammunition 3FOX Feds arrest Iranian woman at LAX for allegedly brokering weapons sales for Islamic regime. She acknowledged contact with an officer from Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and Security 3FOX Feds arrest Iranian woman at LAX for allegedly brokering weapons sales for Islamic regime. Single-source on the significance: this is reported only by Fox, but the criminal complaint is public and the charges are federal. It illustrates the scope of Iran's parallel arms-export operation even mid-war.

The market snapshot is from Friday's close, before Sunday's diplomatic collapse, so treat it as pre-deterioration baseline. The signal that matters most: oil at $91 for Brent reflects neither peace nor resumed war. It is a market in suspension, waiting. The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) at 68.81 remains nearly double pre-war norms, which is the honest read, enormous uncertainty priced in. The gold-to-oil ratio at 58.58 versus 50.77 in March tells you gold is being held as insurance while oil is cheaper than the chaos warrants, meaning traders still expect a deal rather than a return to strikes. If the ceasefire collapses Wednesday without a replacement, that ratio will move hard. Tanker stocks (Frontline at $37.14, up from $32 in March) keep climbing because every day of Hormuz closure is a day tanker owners charge crisis rates for alternative routes. Defence stocks are drifting lower, Lockheed at $592 versus $642 in March, consistent with a market pricing negotiation. If talks collapse, those positions unwind fast.

The US reversed its Russian oil sanctions waiver specifically because the energy shock from Hormuz is severe enough to require offsetting supply from anywhere available 12RTN US reverses on pledge not to renew Russian oil waiver. That decision, combined with the ceasefire expiry clock, is the clearest signal yet of how much economic damage Wednesday's potential resumption of hostilities would cause. Iran is losing roughly $400-435 million per day in export revenue from the blockade 15RTN US to board Iran-linked vessels globally ‘in days’, WSJ, but the cost is being distributed globally through energy prices. Iran's government schools remain closed, its airspace is only beginning to partially reopen from Mashhad airport 11AJE Iran war: What is happening on day 51 of the US-Israeli conflict?, and 180 academics have been killed in the war including 18 female students 11AJE Iran war: What is happening on day 51 of the US-Israeli conflict?. For Western readers: the Russian oil waiver means your government is choosing Russian revenue over Ukrainian solidarity because it has no better option for keeping fuel prices from going further vertical.