TALKS RESUME, BUT THE BLOCKADE IS THE DEAL

• Three US aircraft carriers in the Middle East, first time since 2003. The USS George H.W. Bush joined the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford in the region, alongside 12 escort ships, more than 200 aircraft, and 15,000 troops 4AJE US has three aircraft carriers in the Middle East for first time since 2003. The last time Washington massed that kind of naval power here was in the lead-up to the Iraq invasion. The signal is deliberate: if talks fail and the ceasefire collapses, the US is not starting from a cold start. CENTCOM also confirmed it has now "redirected" 34 vessels as part of the blockade 4AJE US has three aircraft carriers in the Middle East for first time since 2003.

• The Pentagon's missile problem is getting worse, not better. The New York Times reported that the Pentagon has still not secured congressional funding to begin restocking critical munitions depleted in the Iran campaign 5SPK Pentagon Still Seeks Funds to Restore Missile Stockpile Spent in Iran - Reports. The numbers are stark: 1,100 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range (JASSM-ER) cruise missiles were expended at $1.1 million each, leaving only 1,500 in reserve. More than 1,200 Patriot interceptors were used, against annual production of just 600 5SPK Pentagon Still Seeks Funds to Restore Missile Stockpile Spent in Iran - Reports. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) expansion was agreed in January but has not started because the money has not been approved 5SPK Pentagon Still Seeks Funds to Restore Missile Stockpile Spent in Iran - Reports. The three-carrier show of force is real. The magazine behind it is thinner than it looks.

• Iran's vice president issued a stark regional threat. Esmaeil Saqqab Esfahani said Friday that if Iran cannot export a single barrel of oil, "no barrel of oil in the region will be exported" 3SPK Iran Will Bar Anyone From Exporting Oil From Middle East If It Cannot, Vice President. This is not a new threat conceptually, but a sitting Iranian vice president saying it publicly, by name, while talks are supposedly resuming, is notable. It is Iran's way of reminding Gulf producers that they are exposed too.

• Hormuz is functionally closed. Ship-tracking data from Anadolu shows only six vessels moved through the strait in the 24-hour period to Friday morning 11AAM Ship traffic near standstill around Hormuz as only 6 vessels move in last 24 hours. Fourteen Indian ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, with New Delhi in direct contact with Iranian authorities to arrange their safe exit 12AAM 14 Indian ships stuck as Hormuz remains blocked, talks with Iran continue, says New Delhi. At Karachi port alone, 3,000 containers destined for Iran sit uncollected, and Iranian officials are negotiating with Pakistani counterparts to create a 900-kilometre overland land corridor as an alternative route 8AJE With 3,000 containers stuck in Pakistan, Iran explores more land routes. Iran reportedly exported around 985,000 barrels per day to China in early April through a combination of tankers already at sea and sanctions-evasion routes 6CRD Iranian FM begins regional trip with stops in Islamabad, Muscat, Moscow, suggesting the blockade is hurting but not severing Iran's oil revenue.

• Iran exempted Russia from Hormuz transit fees. Iran's ambassador to Moscow confirmed Tehran is applying toll exemptions for "friendly countries, such as Russia" 13AAM Iran to exempt Russia from Hormuz transit fees, says envoy. This is not just diplomacy. It is Iran beginning to formalise a two-tier transit regime: allies pay nothing, everyone else pays, and enemies don't get in at all. When Araghchi visits Moscow, expect this arrangement to be formalised further, and expect Russia's offer to absorb part of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile to return to the table 1GDN Trump sending Witkoff and Kushner to Pakistan to resume talks on Iran war.

The market snapshot is four days old, so read accordingly. Brent at $93 is down sharply from March's $112 peak, which looks like optimism about diplomacy. But the Oil Volatility Index (OVX) at 82 says traders are still paying serious money to hedge against being wrong. Gold holding near $4,720 while oil softens pushes the gold-to-oil ratio to 52.68, near its war-era high. That ratio says: markets believe a deal is coming, but they are not betting the house on it. Defence stocks continue sliding from March peaks, with Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and BAE Systems all down 10 percent or more. The three-carrier deployment and the shoot-to-kill order are not in these prices. A breakdown in Islamabad this weekend would re-price everything quickly.

The shipping freeze is landing in unexpected places. With 3,000 containers stranded at Karachi and only six ships moving through Hormuz per day, supply chains for goods routed through the Gulf are breaking down in slow motion 8AJE With 3,000 containers stuck in Pakistan, Iran explores more land routes 11AAM Ship traffic near standstill around Hormuz as only 6 vessels move in last 24 hours. India has 14 ships stuck in the Persian Gulf and has been forced to resume Iranian oil imports for the first time in seven years to manage energy security 12AAM 14 Indian ships stuck as Hormuz remains blocked, talks with Iran continue, says New Delhi. Kuwait reopened its airspace Thursday for the first time since February 28, a small but meaningful signal that Gulf states are beginning to plan for normalisation even before a deal exists 17AAM Kuwait reopens airspace for 1st time since Iran war. For Western travellers, the Lufthansa flight cuts flagged in yesterday's edition are not a one-off: the underlying jet fuel supply problem, with 75 percent of Europe's aviation fuel previously sourced from West Asian refineries, has not changed.