THE TOUSKA SEIZURE AND THE CEASEFIRE IT MAY HAVE KILLED

• Iran is preparing legislation to permanently enshrine its control of the Strait of Hormuz. In a striking BBC interview, Ebrahim Azizi, who heads Iran's parliamentary National Security Committee and is a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander, said Iran will "never" relinquish control of the strait, describing it as "one of our assets to face the enemy" 16BBC Tehran will never cede control of Strait of Hormuz, senior Iranian politician tells BBC. A bill is being drafted under article 110 of Iran's constitution that would codify IRGC authority over who passes through 16BBC Tehran will never cede control of Strait of Hormuz, senior Iranian politician tells BBC. This is not a bargaining chip. Iran is writing the Hormuz veto into domestic law, which makes any deal requiring full normalisation of passage significantly harder. The UAE called it "an act of hostile piracy." Azizi called the UAE "pirates who sold our region to the Americans" 16BBC Tehran will never cede control of Strait of Hormuz, senior Iranian politician tells BBC.

• The UAE is quietly threatening to ditch the dollar if Washington does not bail it out. Emirati Central Bank Governor Khaled Balama held meetings in Washington last week with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve representatives to discuss a dollar currency swap line 8CRD UAE demands special access to US dollars amid threats to trade oil in yuan: Report. The implicit message, reported by the Wall Street Journal: if the UAE runs short of dollars due to the war's economic damage, it may be forced to sell oil in Chinese yuan 8CRD UAE demands special access to US dollars amid threats to trade oil in yuan: Report. The UAE pegs its currency to the dollar and has been cut off from oil export revenue by the Hormuz closure. Saudi Arabia's finance minister separately warned last week that even after full peace, Gulf oil logistics will not recover to pre-war levels until at least the end of June 8CRD UAE demands special access to US dollars amid threats to trade oil in yuan: Report. A US ally is threatening, with exquisite politeness, to accelerate dollar-replacing trade unless it gets emergency liquidity. Washington has not approved the swap.

• China's Xi Jinping called Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and said Hormuz must stay open. The call, confirmed by Xinhua, included Xi's call for "an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire" and a statement that "normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz serves the common interests of regional countries and the international community" 13GLT Xi says normal passage through Strait of Hormuz should be maintained. Saudi Arabia said it is ready to "strengthen communication and coordination with China to maintain the ceasefire" 18GLT Xi holds phone talks with Saudi crown prince, says normal passage through Strait of Hormuz should be maintained. Read plainly: Beijing is not sitting this out. It is coordinating with Riyadh on Hormuz and it is doing so publicly, which is how China signals that it considers this a core interest. China's broader bet on renewables, which insulates it from oil shock, gives it unusual leverage to be patient here while everyone else bleeds 19ABC China's smart bet is paying off. Meanwhile, Australia pleads for fuel.

• Iraq faces a dollar cutoff and a political deadline simultaneously. The US has reportedly suspended dollar shipments to Iraq's Central Bank until a new government acceptable to Washington is formed, according to Al-Hadath 3CRD Washington cuts flow of US dollars to Iraqi central bank until 'acceptable' government formed. The Central Bank of Iraq denied the report 3CRD Washington cuts flow of US dollars to Iraqi central bank until 'acceptable' government formed, so this is a single-source claim with a direct denial, flag that appropriately. But the underlying mechanism is real: since 2003, Iraq's oil revenues flow through a US Federal Reserve account in New York, and Washington has historically delayed or reduced transfers when Baghdad strays from US preferences 3CRD Washington cuts flow of US dollars to Iraqi central bank until 'acceptable' government formed. The ruling Shia coalition must name a prime minister by April 26, and Washington opposes both the incumbent and the front-runner 3CRD Washington cuts flow of US dollars to Iraqi central bank until 'acceptable' government formed. Iraq is being squeezed on both its political and financial pressure points simultaneously.

• Israel is moving to claim Lebanon's Qana gas field. A map published by the Israeli military's Arabic spokesman on April 19 shows Israel's declared "Forward Defense Zone" in southern Lebanon extending into Lebanese maritime territory and fully absorbing the Qana gas field 7CRD Israel claims ownership of Lebanese gas field after establishing Gaza-style ‘Yellow Line’ near border. The field was estimated to hold up to 100 billion cubic meters of gas worth between $20-40 billion 7CRD Israel claims ownership of Lebanese gas field after establishing Gaza-style ‘Yellow Line’ near border. This cuts directly across the 2022 Lebanon-Israel maritime border agreement, which Lebanon signed in good faith and Netanyahu's allies opposed at the time 7CRD Israel claims ownership of Lebanese gas field after establishing Gaza-style ‘Yellow Line’ near border. Israel appears to be using the cover of war to resolve a disputed resource claim in its favour. A Lebanese researcher notes the zone covers approximately 70 villages, not the 55 reported by Israeli media, including inhabited Christian and Sunni towns 7CRD Israel claims ownership of Lebanese gas field after establishing Gaza-style ‘Yellow Line’ near border.

The market snapshot is from Friday's close, before the Touska seizure, so it reflects a pre-crisis baseline. The signal worth noting: Brent at $91 and WTI at $83 are already elevated, but the Oil Volatility Index (OVX) at 68.81 tells you markets were pricing enormous uncertainty even before Sunday's escalation. Tanker stocks are the honest tell: Frontline has climbed from $32 in March to $37 now, because every day of Hormuz disruption means crisis freight rates on alternative routes. The dollar (DXY at 98.08, down from 100 in March) is weakening at precisely the moment the UAE is asking for a dollar lifeline, which adds a layer of irony to those negotiations. If the ceasefire collapses Wednesday, expect oil to spike sharply, gold (already near $4,882) to push higher, and defence stocks to reverse their recent drift. The market is currently priced for an uncomfortable stalemate. It is not priced for resumed strikes.

US pump prices have remained above $4 per gallon for more than a week since the ceasefire came into effect, according to Al Jazeera 4AJE ‘Israel never talked me into the war with Iran,’ Trump says. The war's domestic political damage is now significant: an NBC News poll shows two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the conflict 4AJE ‘Israel never talked me into the war with Iran,’ Trump says. Trump's response on Monday was to insist Israel never talked him into anything, pre-empting critics who argue the war serves Israeli rather than American interests 4AJE ‘Israel never talked me into the war with Iran,’ Trump says. That framing fight matters because it signals he is feeling political heat at home, which in theory increases his incentive to cut a deal quickly, but also makes him reluctant to accept terms that look like a climb-down. The mine-clearing operation in Hormuz is active but moving slowly: experts estimate even a single narrow channel could take days to sweep, and the backlog of more than 1,100 vessels waiting to transit will take weeks to months to clear even after a lane opens 12IHY US deploys sea drones, sonar and trained dolphins to clear mines in Hormuz. Shipping company Hapag-Lloyd has its six ships anchored near Dubai with crews stranded and "increasingly impatient" 14FOX Distress call captures tanker under fire, Iran shuts Hormuz trapping thousands of sailors.