IRGC GENERALS ARE RUNNING IRAN AND BLOCKING A DEAL

Mojtaba Khamenei is alive but governing by handwritten notes delivered by motorcycle courier, with senior officials afraid to visit him lest Israel track their movements 8IHY Injured and isolated, Mojtaba Khamenei rules Iran through a tight inner circle. Real power sits with a three-person IRGC-led structure, and IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi holds the only direct line to the supreme leader 19IHY China presses Iran in secret talks as Trump gets dramatic assurances. Iran's civilian leadership cited $300 billion in economic damage and argued for talks. The generals overruled them, betting the naval blockade makes negotiation pointless and that economic pain will crack Washington first 8IHY Injured and isolated, Mojtaba Khamenei rules Iran through a tight inner circle. Critically, the generals appear to have separate funding from the state budget and are not experiencing the crisis they're imposing on everyone else 19IHY China presses Iran in secret talks as Trump gets dramatic assurances.

Trump posted a shoot-to-kill order for any small boat found mining the strait and declared "total control" over Hormuz 1TOI Trump says he ordered US Navy to ‘shoot and kill’ boats mining the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon denied a leaked congressional briefing estimate that clearing the mines would take six months, calling it "dishonest journalism" 9TOI Pentagon denies reported assessment that de-mining Hormuz will take six months. The denial doesn't make the estimate wrong. The IRGC operates exactly the small attack boats the order describes, so one miscalculated approach, intentional or not, could end the ceasefire before diplomacy gets traction.

Defense Minister Katz said publicly that Israel is ready to strike Iranian energy infrastructure and Mojtaba Khamenei personally, and is waiting for US permission 1TOI Trump says he ordered US Navy to ‘shoot and kill’ boats mining the Strait of Hormuz. That is not rhetorical bluster. It means the targeting is done and the decision is Trump's. Whether he gives the green light likely depends on whether he concludes the IRGC will never negotiate seriously, which today's NYT reporting does not make look unlikely.

Iran's parliament has drafted legislation requiring payment in Iranian rials before any ship gets passage, with contracts mandating use of the name "Persian Gulf" 5CRD IEA chief warns Hormuz crisis wiped 13m barrels of oil per day from global markets. This is not a country thinking about reopening the strait as a goodwill gesture. It's a country designing revenue infrastructure. Indonesia's foreign minister has already floated applying the same logic to the Strait of Malacca 10SPK Indonesia Eyes Iran’s Strategy to Monetize Malacca Strait. Iran's playbook is being studied as a template.

Lufthansa is cutting 20,000 short-haul flights through October as jet fuel has more than doubled since late February 12AJE Lufthansa cuts 20,000 flights as Iran war causes jet fuel shortage. The IEA says 75 percent of Europe's jet fuel previously came from West Asian refineries, and that supply is now basically zero 5CRD IEA chief warns Hormuz crisis wiped 13m barrels of oil per day from global markets. The EU's energy commissioner puts the daily cost to Europe at 500 million euros 12AJE Lufthansa cuts 20,000 flights as Iran war causes jet fuel shortage. The flight cuts are not the ceiling, they're the opening move. Watch for government-level guidance on reducing air travel if the disruption holds into summer.