THE DEAL FRAMEWORK TAKES SHAPE, AND THE NUCLEAR QUESTION JUST GOT QUIETLY BURIED

• Iran's new Strait of Hormuz transit regime is already generating revenue and operational reality. The Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) reported 26 ships transited under its coordination on Thursday alone 15ABC Iran tightens grip on Strait of Hormuz with new transit regime. Some vessels not covered by formal agreements are reportedly paying more than $150,000 per passage 15ABC Iran tightens grip on Strait of Hormuz with new transit regime. Under international maritime law, this is illegal. In practice, ship operators are paying it anyway because the alternative is not getting through. Every day this system operates is a day it becomes more entrenched.

• France has drafted a UN Security Council resolution proposing international oversight of Hormuz, directly competing with a US-Bahraini proposal 8AJE Iran war day 85: Tehran says major gaps remain in US talks. The US-Bahraini measure faces near-certain vetoes from Russia and China. France's alternative is the serious diplomatic play, though it too faces obstacles. The competition between these two tracks at the Security Council will tell you a lot about whether the West can present a united front on Hormuz governance, or whether Iran gets to run its institutional fait accompli uncontested.

• Iranian hackers have been running a sustained espionage campaign against aviation, oil and gas companies, posing as job recruiters to target software engineers 13CNN Iranian hackers are targeting aviation, oil and gas companies in espionage scheme, researchers say | CNN Politics. US cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks' Unit 42 confirmed the scheme, which also targeted companies in Israel and the UAE. Researchers do not believe any aviation or energy firms were successfully breached, but other unidentified targets were. With Iran unable to strike the US mainland with missiles or drones, this is the asymmetric pressure it is using to keep Washington uncomfortable. It is working.

• House Republican leaders cancelled Thursday's war powers vote because they knew they were going to lose it 14CNN GOP leaders abruptly cancel House vote on Iran war powers, shielding Trump from rebuke | CNN Politics. The vote is now deferred to early June after the Memorial Day recess. Democrats say they had the votes. With pump prices as the backdrop for every American's holiday weekend, the political pressure on Republican members is not decreasing during the break. It is increasing. The rescheduled vote in June will be harder to pull, not easier.

• Russia publicly stated its opposition to resumed US strikes on Iran, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warning any resumption would have "a negative impact on the global economy" 10SPK Trump Decided to Give Talks With Iran More Time, Not Resume Strikes for Now, Report. Russia is not a mediator here, but it is a signal. Moscow has an interest in keeping oil prices elevated and in keeping the US tied down in a conflict it cannot cleanly win. Russian opposition to resumed strikes, stated publicly, gives Iran another talking point and makes a clean US military escalation diplomatically messier.

The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) jumped to 75.97 from 72.98 yesterday, even as Brent barely moved, sitting flat at $103.50 for a second day. That divergence is the market saying: we do not know what happens this weekend, and we are paying for that uncertainty. Equities are nudging higher on the diplomatic optimism thesis, with defence stocks across Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, and Rheinmetall all ticking up again. Gold is drifting lower at $4,521, down from April's $4,732 peak, but that is not a peace signal. It is simply less panic, not no panic. The gold-to-oil ratio at 46.80 remains historically elevated. RBOB gasoline futures are up sharply on the week, from $3.30 to $3.45, which will feed through to pump prices within days, a bad look for a holiday weekend already defined by expensive fill-ups.

US gasoline pump prices over Memorial Day weekend are the political fact that matters most domestically right now. RBOB futures are up more than four percent this week, and a CNN poll found 77 percent of Americans say Trump's policies have increased their cost of living 14CNN GOP leaders abruptly cancel House vote on Iran war powers, shielding Trump from rebuke | CNN Politics. In India, Rubio explicitly offered US energy exports as a replacement for Hormuz-routed supplies, but analysts note the US-to-India route is significantly longer and more expensive than traditional Gulf shipping 4BBC Rubio meets Modi during India visit with energy high on agenda. That gap does not close with a sales pitch. In Europe, the EU's Spring 2026 Economic Outlook, projecting Brent at $91.20 for the full year on a 46 percent upward revision, with eurozone growth at 0.9 percent, is the forecast that will define European policymakers' summer. That forecast was built before this weekend's decision point.