IRAN DRAWS A NEW MAP AND DARES EVERYONE TO ACCEPT IT

• Republican Congressional leadership pulled a House war powers vote Thursday because they knew they would lose it 9TOI Republicans delay US House vote to halt Iran war that was on verge of passing12APW Democrats hope for breakthrough as House takes another Iran war vote. This is not a procedural delay. Democrats say they had the votes locked in. The last attempt fell on a tie vote. This time a previously dissenting Democrat flipped to support the resolution. House Republican leaders declined to hold a vote they were going to lose, which means the war powers resolution is now one scheduling decision away from passing. Combined with the Senate's 50-47 vote earlier this week, Trump is looking at a bipartisan congressional challenge to his war authority arriving just as his Pentagon funding runs toward an August cliff edge.

• The US burned through more than half its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor inventory defending Israel during the war 10TOI US used over half its THAAD interceptors defending Israel during Iran war, report. Over 200 THAAD interceptors were used, plus more than 100 SM-3 and SM-6 missiles. A US official told the Washington Post that if fighting resumes, the US will need even more interceptors because Israel has sent some of its own batteries for maintenance. Another official said bluntly that "Israel is not capable of fighting and winning wars on its own." That quote is extraordinary in its directness. The Pentagon denied any burden-sharing problem. The math tells a different story.

• Iran's military is reconstituting faster than US intelligence predicted, and the ceasefire is the reason 11CNN RAPIDLY REBUILDING MILITARY. CNN reports drone production facilities are back online and some US estimates suggest full drone capability could be restored within six months. Russia and China are both helping, with Beijing reportedly supplying missile components, a claim China's foreign ministry denied 11CNN RAPIDLY REBUILDING MILITARY. Every week of diplomacy that does not produce a deal is a week Iran uses to rebuild the arsenal the bombing was supposed to destroy permanently.

• American economic confidence hit its worst reading since 2022, with only 16 percent of US respondents rating the economy "good" or "excellent" in a new Gallup poll 4AJE Economic confidence plummets in US amid Iran war, poll shows. The Economic Confidence Index sits at -45. Pump prices averaging $4.55 per gallon are the most visible driver. With midterms in November, this is now a core political vulnerability for every Republican in a competitive seat, which explains exactly why House Republican leadership pulled Thursday's war powers vote rather than force members to go on record.

• The EU's Spring 2026 Economic Outlook has revised its Brent crude forecast up 46 percent to $91.20 per barrel for the full year, and calls this the worst energy shock to hit Europe since the Russia-Ukraine war 7TTM Strait of Hormuz closure shakes Europe: Oil price forecast soars 46%. Eurozone growth is now projected at 0.9 percent, inflation at 3.0 percent. One Brussels economist compared the supply disruption to the 1970s oil embargo.

Brent is holding just above $103, roughly flat on the week and well below April's peak, but the Oil Volatility Index (OVX) jumped to 76.27 from 72.98 yesterday. That divergence is the signal: crude prices are stable, but the market's fear of sudden disruption just spiked. Iran publishing a new sovereignty map over the strait with a formal regulatory body will do that.

Gold at $4,515 continues its gradual drift lower from April's $4,732 peak. That is not a peace signal. Gold buyers are simply less panicked than they were a month ago. They have not gone home. Defence stocks across Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, and Rheinmetall all ticked higher on the week. Equities are rallying modestly on the "diplomacy is still alive" thesis, while OVX quietly flashes that the tail risk has not gone away.

The copper price creeping toward $6.40 is the one market signal most people are missing. Copper does not move on war fear. It moves on industrial demand expectations. It is up roughly five percent from a month ago. Someone in the market believes the global economy is not about to collapse, even with all of this. That is either contrarian wisdom or the last thing to price in before it does.

The EU's 46 percent upward revision to its oil price forecast is the number Western governments need to start explaining publicly 7TTM Strait of Hormuz closure shakes Europe: Oil price forecast soars 46%. Eurozone inflation revised up to 3.0 percent, growth cut to 0.9 percent, and the Commission warning explicitly that oil and gas prices may not peak until late 2026 and the economy may not recover through 2027. That is not a forecast built around the war ending soon.

In the US, $4.55 per gallon at the pump over a Memorial Day weekend is politically toxic 4AJE Economic confidence plummets in US amid Iran war, poll shows. The timing is precise: Americans are filling tanks to visit family, encountering prices 55 cents higher than pre-war levels, and reading headlines about a war that a growing number of Republicans now say was a mistake. The Gallup poll is the political detonator sitting under Republican congressional solidarity, and Thursday's pulled vote shows the party leadership knows it.