THE US SHOT FIRST, IRAN STAYED AT THE TABLE, AND THAT TELLS YOU EVERYTHING

• Israel is now formally operating north of its Lebanon security zone, with Washington's blessing. Netanyahu announced the IDF is "taking control of strategically dominant positions" north of the buffer zone 1TOI IDF pushes north of Lebanon security zone; Netanyahu says Israel seizing ‘strategic positions’. The Israeli Air Force conducted over 100 strikes in the Beqaa Valley overnight 1TOI IDF pushes north of Lebanon security zone; Netanyahu says Israel seizing ‘strategic positions’. Lebanese media reported 12 killed, including children, in a Beqaa strike 1TOI IDF pushes north of Lebanon security zone; Netanyahu says Israel seizing ‘strategic positions’. Critically, the US approved this expansion but drew one specific line: no strikes on Beirut while Iran deal talks are live 1TOI IDF pushes north of Lebanon security zone; Netanyahu says Israel seizing ‘strategic positions’. The phrase "not to bring down buildings in Beirut" was the precise American instruction, per Channel 12 1TOI IDF pushes north of Lebanon security zone; Netanyahu says Israel seizing ‘strategic positions’. That is a narrow constraint and one that Netanyahu's far right will push against immediately.

• Trump is now tying the Iran deal to Abraham Accords expansion, adding Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to the requirement list. Trump wrote that it should be "mandatory" for Gulf states and others to simultaneously join the normalisation agreements as part of the Iran deal package 15APW Trump ties expanding Abraham Accords to Iran deal. Saudi Arabia has never recognised Israel and has long conditioned any normalisation on Palestinian statehood. Linking the two is either brilliant diplomatic leverage or a deal-complicating addition that hands Tehran's hardliners a new argument for why the US cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith. The timing, arriving as the final Doha talks are under way, is not accidental.

• Iran's internet is coming back on, with caveats. After 88 days of near-total blackout, Iran's government announced the restoration of internet access on Tuesday 3BBM Internet starts coming back in Iran after months-long blackout. Monitoring groups Netblocks and Kentik confirmed partial restoration 3BBM Internet starts coming back in Iran after months-long blackout, but noted heavier filtering than pre-war levels, including restrictions on WhatsApp. A last-minute legal challenge from hardliners attempting to block the restoration was filed in an administrative court, though the court clarified it was examining the legal standing of the cyberspace oversight body, not the restoration decision itself 5GDN End to Iran’s 88-day internet blackout stalled by legal challenge. The internet is coming back with tighter controls and a political fight built in. The timing alongside the Doha talks is deliberate: Pezeshkian is delivering something visible to ordinary Iranians while the deal is still being written.

• An Iranian military spokesman warned that any new US-Israeli attack would produce a response "much more severe and heavier than the previous two wars," and that it would not stay confined to the region 9MHR Iran response to be more severe than previous war if attacked. Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi also reiterated that if Iran's oil exports are blocked, it will prevent oil from leaving the region entirely 9MHR Iran response to be more severe than previous war if attacked. This is public deterrence theatre, aimed at both Washington and Iranian domestic audiences. But it is being issued the day after US strikes killed four IRGC soldiers, which gives it more weight than the usual periodic warnings.

Brent dropped from $100.20 to $96.54 over the past 24 hours, and that move deserves scrutiny. Oil falling after US strikes on Iran near the Strait of Hormuz is counterintuitive, until you read it correctly: markets are pricing a deal, not the strikes. The Guardian reported Brent futures climbed 4% immediately on news of the strikes 2GDN Iran remains in peace talks despite first US strikes since ceasefire, but that gain has since been given back, suggesting traders concluded Iran staying in Doha matters more than the exchange of fire. The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) at 66.07 is down sharply from last week's 72.45, which is markets pricing reduced uncertainty about the outcome rather than reduced risk. Gold dipped slightly to $4,497 and is now well below its April peak. Equities are calm: the S&P 500 is flat, the VIX at 17.09 is benign. The one signal worth watching: Israel's TA-125 index fell from 4,465 to 4,420 today, the only major index in the red, which suggests Israeli investors are reading the US pressure on Beirut strikes as a constraint on what Netanyahu can actually deliver.

Brent at $96.54 is the lowest it has been in over a month, and if it holds, it will feed through to pump prices within two to three weeks. That is modest good news for Western consumers heading into summer. The more significant development is structural: Trump's Abraham Accords demand, dropped into the Iran deal talks without apparent prior consultation, will alarm European governments that have been trying to position themselves as relevant to the post-war regional order. Any framework that formally links Gulf Arab normalisation with Israel to the Iran settlement makes European diplomatic relevance even more marginal. Paris and Berlin have been quiet throughout this war. Trump's latest move ensures they stay that way.