THE FRAMEWORK IS REAL, THE SIGNATURES ARE NOT

• The US Treasury sanctioned Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), the body managing Hormuz passage fees, calling its toll collection "extortion" and threatening secondary sanctions on any firm or financial institution that complies with its requirements 3CRD US Treasury slaps sanctions on Iranian authority overseeing Hormuz. This happened on the same day a ceasefire extension framework was reportedly agreed. Sanctioning the entity you are simultaneously negotiating to legitimise is either a maximum-pressure tactic designed to improve the final terms, or evidence that different parts of the US government are not fully coordinated. Either way, it signals the Hormuz governance question is not settled.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also threatened Oman with sanctions if it facilitates Iranian tolling of the strait, a day after Trump threatened to "blow up" Oman if it reached a side deal with Tehran on Hormuz management 4AJE US Treasury threatens Oman with sanctions over Hormuz Strait. Oman has not publicly sought control over the waterway. Threatening a close security partner this explicitly, for something it has not done, is genuinely unusual behaviour and reflects how much Washington fears a bilateral Iran-Oman arrangement that cuts the US out of Hormuz governance. The Oman relationship is quietly becoming one of the most stressed bilateral dynamics in the region.

• Satellite imagery, cited by CNN and reported by Israel Hayom, shows Iran has cleared debris from at least 50 access points across 18 missile sites since the ceasefire began 12IHY Satellite images reveal Iran rapidly rebuilds its missile and drone arsenal. US intelligence sources confirmed to CNN that Iran is recovering "far faster than initial assessments," with four sources saying Iran has "beaten every timetable the intelligence community had." Full drone strike capability could be restored within six months 12IHY Satellite images reveal Iran rapidly rebuilds its missile and drone arsenal. Meanwhile, a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report confirmed the US used over 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles against Iran and roughly 1,000 Patriot interceptors, and that replacing those stockpiles will take three to five years at current production rates 10CRD Pentagon needs 'three to five years' to replenish critical missile stocks: Report. The strategic implication of those two facts together is uncomfortable: Iran is rebuilding faster than the US is resupplying.

• Iran's internet has partially returned after 88 days of near-total blackout, and the reaction inside Iran is not celebratory 13GDN ‘This isn’t freedom’: anger, anxiety and tears as Iran’s internet flickers back. Iranians who spoke to the Guardian described mobile internet still down, WhatsApp barely functional, and VPN access marginally easier. Many viewed the partial restoration as a surveillance tool rather than a concession. One protester who had been arrested in January said: "This is not a sign of freedom" 13GDN ‘This isn’t freedom’: anger, anxiety and tears as Iran’s internet flickers back. The regime is giving people just enough connectivity to reduce domestic pressure without restoring the tools that enabled protest coordination.

The signal worth reading today is the gap between oil and volatility. Brent nudged up slightly to $93.05 from $92.50 yesterday, which is essentially flat, but the Oil Volatility Index (OVX) dropped again to 58.51 from 60.15, its lowest point in the data series here. Markets are pricing deal completion with more confidence than the diplomatic evidence supports. The Gold/Oil ratio has ticked up again to 50.77, maintaining its elevated position, which is the hedge trade staying in place even as energy traders relax. Gold itself is at $4,532, recovering from yesterday's dip. The Frontline tanker stock at $34.60 is worth watching: it has fallen from $39 a week ago, meaning shipping operators think Hormuz reopening is priced into oil but actual cargo flow restoration remains distant. Defence stocks are grinding steadily higher across the board. VIX at 15.68 is the calmest reading in the series. Equity markets are not afraid. Whether that is wisdom or complacency depends on what happens in Washington in the next 48 hours.

The threat of secondary sanctions on Oman is landing awkwardly in European capitals. European maritime operators have been quietly negotiating directly with Tehran's navy for passage through Hormuz 3CRD US Treasury slaps sanctions on Iranian authority overseeing Hormuz, and the PGSA sanctions mean any European company that has paid or is considering paying Iranian passage fees is now exposed to US Treasury enforcement. That is a practical problem for shipping firms, insurers, and the governments that depend on them. The 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) that normally flows through the strait affects European energy prices directly, and three tankers were reported transiting with transponders off this week, heading toward India and China 3CRD US Treasury slaps sanctions on Iranian authority overseeing Hormuz. That shadow fleet activity is moving supply eastward, not westward, which is the structural story European energy ministries should be watching.