IRAN LAUNCHES THE PGSA AND THE IEA SOUNDS THE ALARM

• Iran's 14-point proposal includes a long-term nuclear suspension and transfer of highly enriched uranium to Russia, plus a phased Hormuz reopening, according to regional officials. 3GDN Iran makes new proposal for deal to end war, regional officials say Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency also reported that the US has, in its latest counter-proposal, agreed to temporarily waive sanctions on Iranian oil exports during the negotiation period. 6AAM US accepts temporary waiver of Iran oil sanctions during negotiations: Iranian media Neither side has confirmed the other's characterisation, and the Guardian notes the talks have been "marked by a series of misleading statements made by Iran, the US and mediators." 3GDN Iran makes new proposal for deal to end war, regional officials say One Pakistani source told Reuters that Washington and Tehran "keep changing their goalposts" and time is running out. 4AJE Pakistan’s mediation faces limits as Iran-US tensions deepen Treat all specific claims from all parties here as positioning, not fact.

• Trump is meeting his national security team Tuesday to discuss options for resuming military action. 3GDN Iran makes new proposal for deal to end war, regional officials say Axios reported this specifically, and it lands against a backdrop where Trump told the New York Post Iran knows "what's going to be happening soon," 1AAM Trump says 'not open to anything right now' on Iran nuclear talks the ceasefire has been nominally extended but structurally deteriorating, and the IEA just said the global energy buffer has weeks left. Tuesday's NSC meeting is the decision point to watch.

• Iran has arrested more than 6,500 people on espionage and collaboration charges since the war began. 11MHR 6,500 spies, traitors arrested since start of war Iran's Law Enforcement Force (FARAJA) commander General Ahmad-Reza Radan also confirmed that 166 "armed and professional thieves" were shot and detained during wartime security operations, with an unspecified number killed. 11MHR 6,500 spies, traitors arrested since start of war This is the internal security picture behind Iran's external negotiating posture: a government simultaneously running diplomacy and conducting a mass crackdown. The scale of arrests, 6,500 in under three months, suggests either genuine penetration of Iranian institutions or a security apparatus using wartime conditions to settle scores. Probably both.

• Israeli forces intercepted a 54-boat Gaza-bound flotilla in international waters west of Cyprus today, boarding at least 10 vessels and losing contact with 23 more. 8BBM Israeli forces board Gaza-bound flotilla near Cyprus, activists say Turkey condemned the operation as "piracy," and around two dozen Turkish nationals were among those on intercepted boats. 8BBM Israeli forces board Gaza-bound flotilla near Cyprus, activists say This is largely a secondary story in the context of the Iran war, but it matters for one reason: Turkey's reaction. Ankara has been managing a careful balance between its NATO membership and its increasingly adversarial relationship with Israel. Each flotilla interception pushes that balance further.

• A Reuters investigation found that Iran's largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, processed at least $2.3 billion on the same two blockchains, Tron and BNB Chain, that underpin the Trump family's World Liberty Financial venture. 10TOI How Trump and Iran use the same industry networks for their growing crypto empires No direct connection is alleged, and the White House called the framing "totally laughable." 10TOI How Trump and Iran use the same industry networks for their growing crypto empires But the Iran Hormuz Safe insurance platform is also accepting Bitcoin premiums, 9CRD Iran announces 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' to manage Hormuz with Oman meaning Iran is actively using crypto infrastructure to route around US financial sanctions in real time, on the same networks where Trump-linked crypto ventures operate. The "dramatic irony," as one former Securities and Exchange Commission official put it, 10TOI How Trump and Iran use the same industry networks for their growing crypto empires is real regardless of whether any rules were broken.

Brent held at $112 today, up roughly 23 percent since mid-April, and the IEA's "weeks of inventory" warning is the kind of statement that, if it moves markets at all, moves them upward. 5CRD IEA chief warns global oil reserves have 'weeks' of supply left The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) at 72 is elevated but not spiking further, which suggests traders are already pricing in a prolonged disruption rather than reacting to new information. The more telling signal is the gold-to-oil ratio, now compressed to 43 from nearly 59 in mid-April. Oil is outrunning gold. That is a supply-shock signal, not a fear signal. Markets believe the Hormuz closure is structural, not temporary.

The US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.6 percent [[market data]] and the dollar index recovering to 99 suggest bond markets are beginning to price in the combined weight of energy-driven inflation and deficit spending. Defence stocks remain well below their April highs despite every escalation signal. Either the market is right that a deal gets done, or it is very wrong and will correct sharply.

The IEA's warning to G7 finance ministers in Paris today is the most direct official signal yet that Western governments are looking at a supply cliff, not a supply squeeze. 5CRD IEA chief warns global oil reserves have 'weeks' of supply left EU gas storage at 36 percent capacity, against a five-year average of 50 percent, means Europe enters summer already short, before the refilling season that is supposed to prepare it for next winter. 5CRD IEA chief warns global oil reserves have 'weeks' of supply left The surge in coal imports across Europe, South Korea, and Japan represents a reversal of years of decarbonisation commitments, driven entirely by the Hormuz closure. 5CRD IEA chief warns global oil reserves have 'weeks' of supply left The political cost of that reversal, both in domestic climate politics and in international credibility, is real and growing. Natural gas prices in the US and Europe both started the week higher, with analysts at ING telling the Wall Street Journal that Asian buyers competing for spot cargoes will directly increase costs for European consumers. 5CRD IEA chief warns global oil reserves have 'weeks' of supply left