HORMUZ IS "OPEN" BUT NOBODY'S RUSHING IN

• The nuclear deal framework is taking shape. Axios reported, via four sources, that the US is considering unfreezing $20 billion in Iranian assets in exchange for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile 5SPK US Mulls Unlocking $20Bln in Iranian Funds in Exchange for Enriched Uranium - Reports. Iran initially countered a $6 billion US offer with a demand for $27 billion. The two sides are also discussing whether uranium gets shipped to a third country, down-blended inside Iran under international oversight, or some combination. A voluntary moratorium on enrichment and closure of underground nuclear facilities are part of the emerging memorandum. Whether ballistic missiles and proxy support are included remains unclear 5SPK US Mulls Unlocking $20Bln in Iranian Funds in Exchange for Enriched Uranium - Reports. A second round of talks in Islamabad is reportedly likely for April 19 5SPK US Mulls Unlocking $20Bln in Iranian Funds in Exchange for Enriched Uranium - Reports. This is the most detailed public picture yet of what a deal could look like, and the gap between the positions is narrowing.

• The US blockade is leaking, and BBC Verify has the data. At least four vessels tracked from Iranian ports have crossed the US blockade line since Monday, three of them under US sanctions, now broadcasting positions off India's coast 6BBC Some Iran-linked ships have crossed US blockade, data suggests. A Pakistani tanker, Shalamar, became the first ship to exit the strait with crude since the blockade began 8RTN US to target Iran-linked ships worldwide, top general. When BBC Verify asked Central Command (CENTCOM) about the four vessels, it said it had "nothing to add" 6BBC Some Iran-linked ships have crossed US blockade, data suggests. That is not a denial.

• The US is expanding blockade enforcement globally. Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine announced that US forces worldwide will "actively pursue any Iranian-flagged vessel or any vessel attempting to provide material support to Iran," with Pacific operations specifically targeting ships that left Iranian ports before the blockade started 8RTN US to target Iran-linked ships worldwide, top general. The Navy advisory lists contraband to include oil, weapons, nuclear materials, iron, steel, and aluminum 8RTN US to target Iran-linked ships worldwide, top general. This is a significant escalation of scope, even as the blockade's effectiveness at the choke point itself is in question.

• Congress is stuck. The House rejected a War Powers resolution to withdraw US forces from Iran by a single vote, 213 to 214 19APW House rejects effort to withdraw US forces from the Iran war. A day earlier, 40 of 47 Democratic senators voted to block military bulldozer sales to Israel, the highest level of Democratic opposition to an Israel arms transfer ever recorded 18AJE Senate vote on arms sale shows ‘massive cracks’ in US support for Israel. The 60-day War Powers Act deadline arrives at the end of April. Republicans are holding the line for now, but the margins are razor-thin and the political cost of the war (gas at $7 in some states, 13 service members dead) is compounding weekly 19APW House rejects effort to withdraw US forces from the Iran war.

• US troops are going hungry. USA Today reported food shortages aboard warships in the Gulf, with photos showing near-empty meal trays on the USS Tripoli and unappetizing rations on the USS Abraham Lincoln 16GLT US troops in Middle East reportedly face food shortages, mail suspension as morale slips; Exposing lack of preparation for prolonged Iran operation: Chinese expert. Mail delivery to military addresses in the region has been suspended since April. A sailor wrote that supplies "are going to get really low" and predicted morale would hit "an all-time low" 16GLT US troops in Middle East reportedly face food shortages, mail suspension as morale slips; Exposing lack of preparation for prolonged Iran operation: Chinese expert. Family members have spent thousands on care packages that never arrived. This story will have political legs.

Markets believe the war just got meaningfully closer to ending, or at least that oil will flow again soon. Brent's drop from $98-plus to $91 is the most significant single-day move since the conflict began, and it came on an announcement that hasn't actually put a single additional barrel on the water yet 2BBC Oil prices plunge as Iran says Strait of Hormuz 'open' during ceasefire. That tells you how much pent-up optimism was waiting for any excuse to exhale. Equities rallied broadly (S&P up 1.2 percent, DAX and CAC up around 2 percent), the VIX settled to 17.56, and oil volatility (OVX) at 68.81 remains elevated but well off its March peak of 97 2BBC Oil prices plunge as Iran says Strait of Hormuz 'open' during ceasefire. The interesting tell is gold, which barely moved at $4,882, essentially flat from a month ago. Gold not selling off on a "peace is coming" rally means the smart money isn't fully buying the optimism. Defence stocks slipped (Lockheed down to $593, Northrop to $666), continuing a drift that prices in negotiation rather than escalation. Tanker stocks (Frontline at $37.39) rose, which makes sense: if the strait opens for real, tankers have cargo to carry. The dollar index at 98.08 continues its slide. Watch whether oil claws back above $95 early next week as traders digest that "open" doesn't mean "safe."

The IEA's Birol gave Europe a concrete countdown: six weeks of jet fuel remaining before cancellations begin 14RTN Europe has ‘six weeks’ of jet fuel left, IEA chief. Some EU countries have reserves covering only eight to ten days 14RTN Europe has ‘six weeks’ of jet fuel left, IEA chief. Heathrow has already seen cancellations, SAS has scrapped roughly 1,000 flights, and Air France has raised long-haul fares as fuel costs run 120 percent above last year 14RTN Europe has ‘six weeks’ of jet fuel left, IEA chief. The Macron-Starmer summit in Paris on Friday, attended by around 40 nations, advanced plans for a "Strait of Hormuz Maritime Freedom of Navigation Initiative," a strictly defensive multinational force that would only deploy after the conflict ends 10AJE Macron and Starmer host allies for summit on Hormuz maritime security. The US was deliberately excluded. France set two preconditions: Iran must commit not to fire on ships, and the US must commit not to block non-Iranian traffic 10AJE Macron and Starmer host allies for summit on Hormuz maritime security. Russia is filling the supply vacuum, with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam all signing new Russian oil deals in recent days 14RTN Europe has ‘six weeks’ of jet fuel left, IEA chief. India's sanctions waiver for Iranian oil expires Sunday, after which its refiners (who have been paying in Chinese yuan through a Shanghai bank branch) lose their exemption 11CRD India imports millions of barrels of Iranian oil paid for in yuan. That waiver's lapse tightens supply just as the Hormuz announcement loosens sentiment, creating a confusing signal for importers trying to plan.