THE BLOCKADE IS WORKING AND LEAKING AT THE SAME TIME

• The US is sending 10,000 more troops to the Middle East before month's end, including the USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group (approximately 6,000 personnel) and the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group with the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit (approximately 4,200) 5AJE US sending 10,000 more troops to Middle East despite Iran ceasefire. This will bring the carrier count in the region to three and total troop numbers above 60,000. The Washington Post's sources said the deployment enables the administration to negotiate while "preparing for the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations" 5AJE US sending 10,000 more troops to Middle East despite Iran ceasefire. Russia's Security Council issued a statement Tuesday warning that the US and Israel "may use peace talks to prepare for a ground operation against Iran" 13RTN Russian Security Council issues US-Israel ground op warning, citing exactly this buildup. That is Moscow's interpretation, but the force composition (an amphibious ready group with Marines) does support the reading that this is not purely defensive.

• Iran used a Chinese-built spy satellite to monitor and strike US bases during the war, according to leaked Iranian military documents obtained by the Financial Times 7CRD Iran used Chinese satellite to monitor, strike US bases: Report. The satellite, TEE-01B, was launched from China and transferred to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force under an "in-orbit delivery" deal with Chinese firm Earth Eye Co., valued at roughly $36.6 million. Time-stamped imagery showed surveillance of Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia around the time of confirmed Iranian strikes. China denied the claims. This is the most concrete evidence yet of direct Chinese military-relevant support to Iran during active hostilities, and it will almost certainly feature in Washington's diplomatic pressure on Beijing.

• The IMF has cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 percent (from 3.4 percent) and warned that continued conflict could push growth to 2 percent, a level "historically associated with recession" 10CRD US war on Iran risks sparking global recession: IMF. Iran's economy is expected to contract 6.1 percent. Oil above $100 and rising natural gas prices have pushed global inflation projections to 4.4 percent. The IMF's financial counselor called the war "really the shock that is unfolding" 10CRD US war on Iran risks sparking global recession: IMF.

• Trump publicly attacked Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, calling her lacking in "courage" for refusing to join the war and saying she "doesn't mind that Iran has a nuclear weapon" 15AJE Trump turns on Meloni, saying she lacks ‘courage’ over US-Israel war on Iran. Italy responded by suspending its defence agreement with Israel. This is not a minor diplomatic spat: Meloni was Trump's closest European ally, and her break with Washington reflects a broader European posture that is now openly divergent from the US on this war. Trump also called NATO a "paper tiger" in the same interview 15AJE Trump turns on Meloni, saying she lacks ‘courage’ over US-Israel war on Iran.

• Iran is demanding $270 billion in war compensation and has raised the idea of a Strait of Hormuz transit tax to fund reconstruction 16AJE Iran says $270bn war loss must be compensated, as fresh talks with US loom. Iran's government spokeswoman admitted the state does not have the resources to compensate its own citizens for destroyed homes 16AJE Iran says $270bn war loss must be compensated, as fresh talks with US loom. Sixty civilian aircraft have been put out of commission, with 20 completely destroyed 16AJE Iran says $270bn war loss must be compensated, as fresh talks with US loom. These numbers give a sense of the infrastructure damage that will define Iran's negotiating desperation, or intransigence, depending on which way the regime calculates.

The snapshot is from April 13 and pre-dates several of this week's developments, so read directionally. Brent at $98.80 is below the $100+ spike earlier in the month but well above pre-war levels. The IMF says oil has already breached $100 during disruption peaks 10CRD US war on Iran risks sparking global recession: IMF. The more telling signal is the VIX at 19.43, down from 27 in mid-March, which means equity markets are treating the war as a managed situation, not an acute crisis. That looks complacent given the troop buildup and Red Sea threats. The dollar index (DXY) at 98.43 continues its slide, and in Israel the dollar has fallen below 3 shekels for the first time in 30 years 9IHY For the first time in 30 years, the dollar falls below 3 shekels, driven by institutional bets that a deal ends the war and Israel's economy benefits most from the peace dividend. Defence stocks are drifting lower (Lockheed at $619.70, down from $646 a month ago), which reads as markets expecting resolution rather than escalation. If the ceasefire collapses on April 22, that positioning is badly wrong.

US wholesale prices surged 4 percent year-over-year in March, the biggest increase in three years, driven by an 8.5 percent monthly jump in energy prices 19APW Iran war ignites prices at the wholesale level in the US. This is the Producer Price Index (PPI), which means these costs haven't fully hit consumers yet but they will. The Federal Reserve is now facing pressure from some policymakers to raise rates rather than cut them, directly contradicting Trump's demands 19APW Iran war ignites prices at the wholesale level in the US. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is forecasting the first annual decline in oil demand since the pandemic, a drop of 80,000 barrels per day, driven by destruction of demand as prices make economic activity unaffordable 19APW Iran war ignites prices at the wholesale level in the US. Australia is hedging its position, with Deputy PM Richard Marles saying Canberra needs to see a "continued ceasefire" before backing US operations in the strait, while confirming Australia will attend a UK-France summit on Hormuz this week 20SKY Albanese government needs guarantee before supporting Trump’s Strait of Hormuz plan, Deputy PM Richard Marles says. That summit, convened by Starmer and Macron, is the first visible attempt by European powers to build a multilateral framework for the strait problem that is not entirely dependent on the US.