THE CEASEFIRE IS DYING AND NOBODY IS AT THE TABLE

The US team (reportedly Witkoff and Kushner) landed near Islamabad, hotels were cleared, security was tightened 4RTN Trump announces new Iran talks, warns ‘no more Mr. Nice Guy’. Iran did not show. Tehran's position: no talks until the blockade lifts, full stop 1SPK Iran Rejects Second Round of Talks With US - Reports. The core deadlock has not moved in a week: Washington wants enriched uranium removed and enrichment halted; Iran's Parliament Speaker said Sunday the remaining gaps "are not negotiable. They're not." 8CRD 'Fundamental differences remain' between Iran, US as ceasefire expiration nears Trump's Truth Social posts the same day threatened to level Iranian infrastructure the country would take "years to recover" from 5CRD Trump renews threats to ‘knock out’ Iran’s power plants, bridges if final deal fails 17IHY Israel reveals numbers behind Operation Roaring Lion. Watch for any softening of Iran's "no talks while blockade continues" line before Tuesday evening. Silence means no deal by Wednesday.

British counterterrorism police are investigating a coordinated arson campaign against synagogues and Jewish-linked facilities in northwest London, with a group called Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia claiming responsibility and probable Iranian proxy links under investigation 2FOX UK chief rabbi says Jews targeted by ‘sustained campaign of violence and intimidation' after string of attacks. The same group has claimed attacks in Belgium and the Netherlands and threatened drone strikes carrying hazardous substances at Israel's London embassy 2FOX UK chief rabbi says Jews targeted by ‘sustained campaign of violence and intimidation' after string of attacks. MI5 says it has disrupted more than 20 potentially lethal Iran-linked plots in the past year 2FOX UK chief rabbi says Jews targeted by ‘sustained campaign of violence and intimidation' after string of attacks. The European domestic front of this war is escalating and getting harder to ignore.

Treasury Secretary Bessent said Wednesday the Russian oil sanctions waiver would not be extended. On Friday, Treasury extended it anyway through May 16, citing the energy crunch from Hormuz 12RTN US reverses on pledge not to renew Russian oil waiver. Russia earns an estimated $150 million per day in additional revenue from the energy shock this war created 12RTN US reverses on pledge not to renew Russian oil waiver. Zelensky calculated the extension could hand Moscow $10 billion, directly funding strikes on Ukrainian cities 10BBC Zelensky condemns US extension of Russian sanctions waiver. The US is managing the economic fallout of its own war by letting its other adversary profit. Make of that what you will.

Launched from Sinpo (home to submarine-launched ballistic missile infrastructure), the missiles flew roughly 140 km before landing in the sea, the fourth North Korean launch this month 13SKY North Korean missile launches intensify amid Iran conflict with experts warning Pyongyang is firing warning shots. South Korea convened an emergency security meeting. Analysts read this as Pyongyang signalling its deterrence credentials while Washington is visibly occupied elsewhere, and possibly positioning ahead of potential Trump-Kim talks 13SKY North Korean missile launches intensify amid Iran conflict with experts warning Pyongyang is firing warning shots. The Iran war's lesson for Pyongyang is obvious: nuclear weapons are what keep you off the target list.

Netanyahu confirmed Israeli forces are staying inside a 10-kilometre "security strip" in southern Lebanon, with 55 Lebanese towns barred to returning residents 7AJE Does Israel’s ‘Yellow Line’ violate the Lebanon ceasefire?. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem said fighters "will remain in the field with their hands on the trigger" and will respond to violations as they happen 9CRD Hezbollah chief vows resistance will respond to Israeli violations ‘as they occur’. The Lebanon ceasefire also expires this week. Israeli forces occupying Lebanese territory plus Hezbollah fighters with shoot-on-violation orders is not a stable arrangement, and any exchange of fire in the south removes one of the last arguments for extending the broader Iran ceasefire.