TRUMP ORDERS WEEKEND STRIKES, TARGETING ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE AND POSSIBLY PICKAXE MOUNTAIN

The Wall Street Journal reports Trump has ordered strikes expected to last several days, aimed at forcing Iran's surrender rather than punishing a specific provocation 3TOI Trump said to order new wave of Iran strikes aimed at forcing regime’s surrender. Energy infrastructure is the primary target, with CBS reporting joint US-Israel planning on Iranian energy facilities, though CNN and ABC both cast doubt on Israeli direct participation 3TOI Trump said to order new wave of Iran strikes aimed at forcing regime’s surrender. Pickaxe Mountain, the suspected underground nuclear site south of Natanz, is also named: satellite imagery shows active construction near tunnel entrances and apparent hardening work, though whether any conventional munition can reliably destroy what is inside remains contested 10BBC What is Iran's Pickaxe Mountain and why does Trump say he wants to bomb it?. Both Tehran and Washington are working to the same electoral calendar from opposite directions: Iran's security secretary explicitly referenced the pressure on American voters ahead of midterms 1TTM Iran warns of escalation in Hormuz standoff, vows retaliation against any new US-led attack 9AAM Iran warns continued US maritime blockade could shut Strait of Hormuz, other waterways, while Trump is betting on capitulation before November.

UKMTO reported one tanker hit by an unknown projectile northeast of Khasab, disabling its engine room entirely, and a second vessel reporting a large explosion in close proximity 4JPO UKMTO reports two tanker incidents off Oman as Kuwait says it intercepts Iranian drones 8CNN US plans fresh strikes on Iran as soon as this weekend, officials say. No casualties, no claimed responsibility. Khasab sits on the Musandam Peninsula, which is effectively the front door to the strait, and the targeting pattern fits Iran's practice of hitting vessels on routes it has not authorised. Two incidents in 24 hours at that specific location is not coincidence.

Iranian drones struck a government facility in northern Kuwait and civilian property on Bubiyan Island, with Kuwaiti air defenses shooting down multiple others 6AAM Kuwait downs Iranian drones targeting country’s north, Bubiyan Island 4JPO UKMTO reports two tanker incidents off Oman as Kuwait says it intercepts Iranian drones. Kuwait's foreign ministry called it a flagrant sovereignty violation and reserved the right to respond. Kuwait hosts tens of thousands of US troops, which is the Iranian pretext and also Kuwait's political problem: it cannot indefinitely absorb strikes as collateral for hosting an American war effort without that arrangement coming under domestic pressure 6AAM Kuwait downs Iranian drones targeting country’s north, Bubiyan Island.

The Houthis blocked eight Saudi oil tankers from the Bab al-Mandab Strait, forcing the Cape of Good Hope detour, adding two to three weeks per voyage 7TSN Yemen Blocks 8 Saudi Oil Tankers at Bab el-Mandeb As Part of ‘Siege for Siege’ Campaign. Their spokesman called it a "siege for siege" response to Saudi strikes on al-Hudaydah. With Hormuz effectively closed to unauthorised shipping and now Bab al-Mandab under pressure simultaneously, the dual-chokepoint scenario that energy markets have been discounting is no longer theoretical. Eight tankers rerouted at once is the kind of compounding disruption that could finally force a reprice.

Hegseth put the official figure at $37.5 billion; CSIS puts it closer to $40 billion, with roughly $26 billion on munitions alone 14ABC Missiles worth $40 million a shot rack up US war costs in Iran. SM-3 interceptors running at up to $28 million per shot have been a major driver, and CSIS found Patriot and THAAD stocks "running significantly low" 14ABC Missiles worth $40 million a shot rack up US war costs in Iran. The military is burning through the most expensive and least replaceable equipment in its inventory at a rate nobody planned for, and Trump just ordered more strikes.