TRUMP ORDERS NEW STRIKES, TARGETING IRAN'S ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE AND POSSIBLY PICKAXE MOUNTAIN

• Two tanker incidents off Oman's Musandam Peninsula in the last 24 hours. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported one tanker struck by an unknown projectile about 11 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, disabling its engine room and leaving the vessel unable to manoeuvre. A second tanker reported a large explosion in close proximity, with no damage 4JPO UKMTO reports two tanker incidents off Oman as Kuwait says it intercepts Iranian drones8CNN US plans fresh strikes on Iran as soon as this weekend, officials say. No casualties in either incident. No party has claimed responsibility. Musandam sits at the mouth of the Hormuz strait, and these incidents follow Iran's pattern of targeting vessels on routes it has not authorised.

• Iranian drones struck Kuwait for the second consecutive day, hitting a government facility in northern Kuwait and civilian property on Bubiyan Island 6AAM Kuwait downs Iranian drones targeting country’s north, Bubiyan Island4JPO UKMTO reports two tanker incidents off Oman as Kuwait says it intercepts Iranian drones. Kuwait's military shot down multiple drones and confirmed material damage but no casualties. Kuwait's foreign ministry described the attacks as "a flagrant violation of Kuwait's sovereignty" and reserved its right to respond 6AAM Kuwait downs Iranian drones targeting country’s north, Bubiyan Island. The Kuwaiti government is in an increasingly uncomfortable position: it hosts tens of thousands of US troops and is now absorbing Iranian strikes as a direct consequence. That political tension will not stay quiet indefinitely.

• The Houthis blocked eight Saudi oil tankers from transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait, forcing them to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope 7TSN Yemen Blocks 8 Saudi Oil Tankers at Bab el-Mandeb As Part of ‘Siege for Siege’ Campaign. The Houthi spokesman described this as part of a "siege for siege" campaign responding to Saudi airstrikes on the port city of al-Hudaydah. The Cape route adds roughly two to three weeks to a journey between the Gulf and Europe. Eight tankers on that detour simultaneously is not just a shipping inconvenience. It is a compounding tax on global energy supply at the exact moment Hormuz is also disrupted.

• The US war has now officially cost $37.5 billion, according to Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, with independent analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) putting the figure closer to $40 billion 14ABC Missiles worth $40 million a shot rack up US war costs in Iran. Of that, an estimated $26 billion went on munitions alone, driven by heavy use of Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) interceptors at up to $28 million per shot 14ABC Missiles worth $40 million a shot rack up US war costs in Iran. The CSIS analysis found stocks of Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors "running significantly low" 14ABC Missiles worth $40 million a shot rack up US war costs in Iran. The military is burning through the most expensive and least replaceable equipment in its inventory at a rate nobody planned for.

• Gaza disarmament sequencing remains unresolved. Hamas has agreed to the Trump-brokered roadmap, Israel has not officially responded, and a senior Israeli official reiterated that there will be no withdrawal from Gaza's "Yellow Line" before verified Hamas disarmament 8CNN US plans fresh strikes on Iran as soon as this weekend, officials say11AJE Is Israel really ready to withdraw from Gaza?. The 14-day window for agreeing implementation mechanisms has started. Watch what Netanyahu says publicly this week. If he repudiates the sequencing framework, the deal is effectively dead before it begins.

Brent at $90.12 is essentially flat from last week but up nearly 26 percent since the start of July [[market snapshot]]. The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) at 63.04 is actually lower than a week ago despite more attacks, more chokepoints under pressure, and a new US strike campaign being announced [[market snapshot]]. Markets have priced this war in and stopped flinching at individual escalations. That is either confidence or complacency, and the Bab al-Mandab blockade layered on top of Hormuz is the kind of simultaneous dual-chokepoint disruption that could finally force a reprice.

The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.745 percent, its highest in this snapshot series [[market snapshot]]. Bond markets are pricing a combination of sustained war spending, inflation persistence from energy disruption, and a new strike campaign that will cost more money. The S&P 500 moved up regardless. Equity markets and bond markets are telling you different things about the same war, and one of them will eventually be right.

Tanker stocks and the shipping exchange-traded fund (ETF) both held firm, which is rational: disruption raises the price premium for ships willing to take the risk, and some are [[market snapshot]].

The CNN analysis is worth reading carefully on the oil reserve question 2CNN Trump predicted an oil catastrophe if the war didn’t end. The clock is ticking. The US strategic reserve is drawing down. The three-week Hormuz reopening in June flushed roughly 200 million barrels of locked supply into markets, buying approximately 17 weeks of buffer. China, which entered the war with over a billion barrels in stockpile, has been drawing those down to manage its own demand, with estimates suggesting three to four months of runway remaining 2CNN Trump predicted an oil catastrophe if the war didn’t end. The clock is ticking. When China runs out of runway, Chinese demand hits world markets at exactly the moment Hormuz is disrupted again. That is the scenario that produces the "bedlam" Trump predicted in June and is now actively risking.

At the pump, RBOB gasoline futures at $3.22 are up nearly ten percent since the start of July [[market snapshot]]. Heating oil at $4.12 signals that energy traders are already positioning for winter [[market snapshot]], with Hormuz disruption and Red Sea disruption both compressing European and Asian supply alternatives simultaneously.