TRUMPS CAMP DAVID MEETING HAS NO VISIBLE ENDGAME

Trump gathered his full cabinet at Camp David against a backdrop of 28 percent approval for the war overall, with a third of Republicans now saying it was not worth fighting 15APW Iran war poll: Trump approval declines slightly, AP-NORC finds. The Senate already rejected a war powers resolution by a single vote 3GDN Iran strikes tankers under US escort in Hormuz strait as Trump gathers cabinet to discuss war, which tells you how thin the political cover is. Tehran's explicit strategy is horizontal escalation: hit more countries faster than Washington can manage them 6AJE IRGC strikes US targets in Kuwait a day after US hits Iran: Latest events. The US keeps hitting Iran harder; Iran keeps opening new fronts. The Camp David meeting was the moment to produce an exit from that cycle. Whether it did remains the week's defining open question.

The IRGC struck Ahmad Al-Jaber Air Base in Kuwait with suicide drones targeting fighter jet shelters, communications systems, and logistics infrastructure, framing it as retaliation for a US strike on Qeshm Island 7TSN Iran’s Army Hits US Military Facilities in Kuwait6AJE IRGC strikes US targets in Kuwait a day after US hits Iran: Latest events. Kuwait says it shot down Iranian drones 3GDN Iran strikes tankers under US escort in Hormuz strait as Trump gathers cabinet to discuss war, though Iranian and Kuwaiti accounts of the damage diverge. Separately, Iran disabled two tankers that tried the US-preferred southern Hormuz route, and four others immediately turned back 5MHR Two violating oil tankers disabled in Strait of Hormuz: IRGC3GDN Iran strikes tankers under US escort in Hormuz strait as Trump gathers cabinet to discuss war. The PGSA maintained its transit suspension, citing US military aggression 4MHR Strait of Hormuz remains suspended due to US aggression: PGSA. The strategic point Iran is cementing: nothing moves through Hormuz without Iranian approval.

The most underreported detail in the Gaza story: the IRGC reportedly urged Hamas delegates not to sign the disarmament deal during meetings in Tehran, and Hamas signed anyway 9JPO IRGC officials urged Hamas not to sign disarmament deal during late-stage negotiations - report. That is either a sign of genuine Hamas autonomy or a sign of how badly Iran's proxy influence has degraded after five months of war, probably both. The deal still has enormous implementation hurdles: Hamas will not move on weapons until Israel withdraws to the Yellow Line, halts targeted killings, allows a humanitarian surge, and the International Stabilization Force deploys 1CNN Trump announces a breakthrough in Gaza - but there are major caveats. Here’s what we know. Israel is publicly skeptical Hamas will ever actually disarm 10JPO US, BoP hail ‘historic breakthrough’ in Gaza while Israel remains deeply skeptical - analysis. Watch for an Israeli cabinet statement on the sequencing framework in the next 48 hours.

Riyadh formally announced a 14-nation maritime coalition including Bahrain, Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Qatar, and Jordan 8TOI Saudis said to gear up for ground invasion against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen11CNN Saudi Arabia says 14 countries backing maritime alliance to protect shipping routes. Simultaneously, Saudi forces are repositioning away from eastern Yemen in what Yemeni sources describe as preparation for a ground offensive 8TOI Saudis said to gear up for ground invasion against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. If that offensive launches, Saudi Arabia will be running a naval coalition in the Red Sea, co-signing strikes in Iraq, and fighting a ground war in Yemen at the same time. That is an enormous strategic bet for a country whose own oil infrastructure is under sustained attack, and a full Saudi-Houthi ground war would likely close Bab al-Mandab entirely.

Iranian strikes on Kurdistan Region energy infrastructure have cut electricity to five or six hours a day, more than doubled black-market cooking gas prices, and left motorists queuing overnight for petrol 13AAM Fuel crisis grips northern Iraq after attacks halt energy production. KRG price controls have not eased the shortages. This is the war's slow-burn humanitarian cost in a US-aligned region that Western coverage is mostly not tracking, which is not nothing given how dependent US operations in the region are on Kurdish cooperation.