THE HORMUZ DEAL HAS AN IRGC-SHAPED HOLE IN IT

Iran and Oman have agreed on geographic coordinates for a two-lane corridor and are in final drafting of a joint statement 4CRD Iran - Oman deal on Strait of Hormuz ‘near completion’: Tehran 6AAM Iran says joint statement with Oman on Hormuz shipping corridor in final stage 15APW Cargo ship reports being struck in the Strait of Hormuz. The arrangement is structured as a 60-day temporary agreement covering mine clearance and voluntary (make of that what you will) port fees 5JPM Hormuz agreement requires ships to coordinate with Iran while on Omani side, sources tell 'Post'. The problem CNN flagged and Washington is ignoring: the Iranian negotiating team has no IRGC representation, and the IRGC owns every asset that made the strait dangerous in the first place 8CNN An agreement on the Strait of Hormuz is taking shape, but not one Trump wants. A senior Gulf official put the odds of a signed deal by Friday at roughly 50-50, with IRGC sign-off as the missing piece 8CNN An agreement on the Strait of Hormuz is taking shape, but not one Trump wants.

Trump told Fox News the strait "is going to be open very soon" and threatened to "hit them really hard" if Iran backs out 7CRD Trump claims ‘very good’ talks with Iran while renewing threats to ‘hit them hard’. Iran's Foreign Ministry denied any direct US-Iran talks are happening and rejected the threat as the reason for delays 4CRD Iran - Oman deal on Strait of Hormuz ‘near completion’: Tehran. Qatar, which is mediating, confirmed the process is "very progressive" but also confirmed there are no direct US-Iran talks 12CNN Claims of progress in Iran talks; US munitions stockpile ‘dangerously low,’ sources say. Iranian negotiator Saeed Ajorlu described the arrangement on state TV as one where "Iran is dominant" 8CNN An agreement on the Strait of Hormuz is taking shape, but not one Trump wants. That framing will not survive contact with the White House narrative.

Fox News, citing CSIS, reported that nearly two-thirds of Patriot interceptors are gone, almost a third of Tomahawks have been used, and just over half of PrSM stocks remain 14FOX More than half of some US weapons stockpiles used in Iran war, raising concerns about China threat. CSIS analyst Mark Cancian was direct: the real risk is a future conflict in the Western Pacific 14FOX More than half of some US weapons stockpiles used in Iran war, raising concerns about China threat. Republican congressman Michael McCaul said Xi Jinping is "watching our stockpiles very closely." The Pentagon has requested $5.8 billion for weapons manufacturing in FY2027, and Raytheon is up about two percent on the week. This is now a public policy argument about whether this war has structurally degraded US deterrence toward China.

Seven blasts overnight at Dubai's Jebel Ali free zone, one of the Middle East's largest container ports, with black smoke visible on video 9RTN Explosions reported in Dubai industrial district. Iranian sources attributed it to a Houthi attack; the UAE denied any attack occurred. RT reported that Yemeni Armed Forces signalled a statement was coming, which suggests Houthi involvement is at minimum plausible 9RTN Explosions reported in Dubai industrial district. A confirmed Houthi strike on Dubai's main port while Iran is finalising a shipping corridor would be the clearest possible signal that Tehran's diplomats and Tehran's proxies are not working from the same script.

Netanyahu formally rejected the Board of Peace's Hamas disarmament plan, saying Israel will not withdraw from "current lines" until Hamas is completely disarmed, which directly contradicts the plan's sequencing 11JPO Netanyahu rejects BoP Gaza withdrawal plan until Hamas disarms, turns down White House draft 13TOI Netanyahu says Israel ‘didn’t agree’ to Board of Peace’s plan to disarm Hamas. A senior US official had said Trump would be "very disappointed" if Israel blocked it 13TOI Netanyahu says Israel ‘didn’t agree’ to Board of Peace’s plan to disarm Hamas. The Board of Peace is now considering reopening terms in Israel's favour, which risks losing Hamas, which took months to bring along 13TOI Netanyahu says Israel ‘didn’t agree’ to Board of Peace’s plan to disarm Hamas. Every hour Washington spends managing Israeli coalition politics is an hour not spent closing the Hormuz gap, and Trump's self-imposed 48-hour clock closes Friday 7CRD Trump claims ‘very good’ talks with Iran while renewing threats to ‘hit them hard’.