US MISSILE STOCKS ARE NEARLY GONE AND IRAN HAS NOTICED

The Jerusalem Post, citing three independent sources, reports the US has used "virtually all" of its ATACMS and PrSM inventory over five months of strikes 5JPO US has used 'virtually all' of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war, sources say. Trump personally responded with reassurances about production rates, which is precisely what you do when the stockpile story is accurate. What this means at the negotiating table: the threat to resume "devastating airstrikes" is now a threat backed by piloted bombing runs, not standoff precision weapons, and piloted missions mean American casualties in a midterm election year. Iran's military planners know their own intelligence. The deterrent weight behind Trump's ultimatum is not what it was in March. CENTCOM has been drawing from stocks elsewhere in the world to reload 5JPO US has used 'virtually all' of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war, sources say, which is finite and cannibalises readiness for China and Russia contingencies simultaneously.

While talks proceeded, Iran did not slow down. The acting Defence Minister says production "has not stopped for a single day," drone output is running at three times pre-war levels, and the IRGC reports improved missile accuracy from combat lessons 1AJE ‘Maximum use’: Iran boosts military strength during ceasefire with US. US intelligence assessed in June that Iran still held roughly 70 percent of its pre-war missile stockpile and 40 percent of its drones 1AJE ‘Maximum use’: Iran boosts military strength during ceasefire with US. The asymmetry has moved in Iran's favor during the ceasefire, not the other way around. Combine that with the ATACMS story and you have a US that enters any resumed conflict with degraded standoff capability facing an adversary that is better armed than it was when the ceasefire started.

Multiple senior officials across Qatar and the region describe negotiations as "very advanced" 4GDN US and Qatar report progress on Iran ceasefire and reopening Hormuz strait, with inbound Gulf traffic routed through the northern Iranian-controlled lane and outbound through the southern Omani lane 2YNT Iran demands US blockade relief for Hormuz deal, considers European mine-clearing 6YNT Iran retains grip on Hormuz as talks advance toward deal to prevent war. Iran frames its revenue take as "service fees" covering environmental management and tanker security; a US official disputed that framing 2YNT Iran demands US blockade relief for Hormuz deal, considers European mine-clearing, meaning the money terms are still live. Oman is resisting anything that gives Tehran permanent say over Omani waters 4GDN US and Qatar report progress on Iran ceasefire and reopening Hormuz strait. The deal needs an Omani signature and IRGC acquiescence. Neither is in hand, and the June memorandum collapsed at exactly this stage.

Mohsen Rezaei, senior Supreme Leader adviser and former IRGC commander, announced publicly that Iran will execute "immediate precision strikes" against any American warship attempting to impose a navigation route Tehran has not approved 3TTM Leader’s advisor draws Iran’s red line in Hormuz, warns US against maritime provocation. He also claimed CENTCOM commanders told US political leadership they had deployed maximum available capabilities and failed 3TTM Leader’s advisor draws Iran’s red line in Hormuz, warns US against maritime provocation. The CENTCOM admission is state media characterisation and should be treated accordingly. The threat itself is real, deliberate, and timed to the peak of negotiations. This is Iran publicly stating its walk-away position before any deal is signed.

Rezaei confirmed Iran was "ready to attack three different points in Ukraine" before Kyiv apologised 8CRD Iran called off strikes on Ukraine after apology from Kiev: Tehran. Zelensky's own public statement said Ukraine "achieved very strong results" striking vessels "used in military cargo shipments involving Iran" 8CRD Iran called off strikes on Ukraine after apology from Kiev: Tehran, which is not a description of an accident. Iran accepted the apology and stood down, revealing two things: Ukraine is actively targeting Iran's Russia-linked logistics chain, and Iran is not yet willing to open a third military front. The Kremlin called the strike "an assault on Iran itself" 8CRD Iran called off strikes on Ukraine after apology from Kiev: Tehran, which is Moscow doing what Moscow does. Worth watching whether this resurfaces in IRGC thinking on the Hormuz deal, given that Iranian hardliners now have a fresh grievance to point at.