TRUMP KILLED THE CEASEFIRE AND KEPT THE TALKS. IRAN IS PLAYING IT BOTH WAYS TOO.

Trump posted Friday that Iran "asked" to continue negotiations and the US agreed, while declaring the MoU dead 1AJE Trump hints at further Iran negotiations after exchange of fire over Hormuz. Iran did not confirm it made any such request 1AJE Trump hints at further Iran negotiations after exchange of fire over Hormuz. That gap is deliberate: publicly asking your adversary for talks while he is bombing your cities is a hard sell domestically, especially when millions of people just spent a week chanting for his death. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said ending the war "is a priority" but "will never end with surrender" 1AJE Trump hints at further Iran negotiations after exchange of fire over Hormuz, which is not a rejection of talks so much as a floor statement for what any deal has to preserve. Both sides are using the diplomatic channel as a pressure valve while refusing to formally recommit to anything.

Doha's delegation flew specifically to northeastern Iran, coordinated the trip with Washington, and arrived carrying word that "both sides want to come back to the MoU" 3TOI Trump says US will continue holding talks with Iran, but ceasefire is over. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi was already in Mashhad for Khamenei's burial when they landed 2CRD Qatari officials visit Iran as mediators scramble to save Islamabad MoU. Qatar did not fly to Mashhad for a courtesy call. The working theory here is that the MoU text is not being scrapped, it is being renegotiated by crisis, with strikes and threats doing the work that lawyers couldn't. Whether Doha can actually bridge the Hormuz clause dispute, which is where the whole thing collapsed, is the only question that matters right now.

CENTCOM says it has struck roughly 170 targets inside Iran since Tuesday, focused on coastal missile systems, naval assets, and command infrastructure threatening Hormuz navigation 1AJE Trump hints at further Iran negotiations after exchange of fire over Hormuz. Iranian sources reported strikes near the country's only nuclear power plant 13APW US launches new airstrikes on Iran and Tehran targets Gulf states, which the US has not confirmed. Single-source on that one, treat accordingly, but if true it would be a significant threshold crossed. Separately, Iran's National Security Council chief threatened Friday that Israel "will not be spared" if Israeli strikes resume 2CRD Qatari officials visit Iran as mediators scramble to save Islamabad MoU 3TOI Trump says US will continue holding talks with Iran, but ceasefire is over. Israel is reportedly lobbying Trump for permission to rejoin the campaign and using an alleged Iranian assassination plot against Trump as leverage to get it 5CRD Israel pressuring Washington for 'green light' to attack Iran, claims Tehran plotting Trump assassination: Report. Trump has so far said no, preferring to keep this bilateral and "controlled."

Iran's new supreme leader was again absent from his father's burial in Mashhad 9TOI Khamenei buried after dayslong funeral procession as successor son remains out of sight. He has not been seen publicly since his appointment in March, reportedly still recovering from injuries sustained in the February strikes. Issuing written statements while your country is under active bombardment and your legitimacy is still being established is not a stable arrangement for long. The regime is managing the optics carefully, but a leader who cannot show his face during the defining crisis of his rule is a legitimacy problem on a slow fuse.

Brent is sitting at $76.11, essentially flat on the week despite an active bombing campaign and a functionally closed strait 7AJE US-Iran escalation threatens oil supply recovery, warns IEA. Markets are clearly betting the MoU gets rebuilt. That may be right, but it is a bet. Gold at over $4,100 and a Gold/Oil ratio of 57.42 suggest systemic risk pricing that oil is not reflecting 7AJE US-Iran escalation threatens oil supply recovery, warns IEA. Meanwhile Frontline and the BOAT shipping ETF are up, because tanker operators are not pricing peace: they are pricing scarcity premium for vessels willing to run the strait. The IEA warned Friday that the 4.62 million barrel per day surplus it forecast for 2027 was built on Hormuz returning to full operation 7AJE US-Iran escalation threatens oil supply recovery, warns IEA. That assumption is now in serious doubt, and if the strait stays functionally closed through July, energy bills in Western households will feel it before August.