TRUMP PICKS THE BLOCKADE

• Pakistan's mediators are still in the room, but their own sources are downbeat. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir are personally engaged, and Munir has spoken directly to Trump multiple times 11AAM Pakistan working silently to find 'new formula' to break US-Iran deadlock on Strait of Hormuz, nuclear program: Sources. Islamabad describes the current negotiations as "back-channel exchanges of formulas and counter-formulas" 11AAM Pakistan working silently to find 'new formula' to break US-Iran deadlock on Strait of Hormuz, nuclear program: Sources. The source's most telling line: "Nothing is definitive as exchanges are ongoing." That is a mediator telling you they do not have a deal, or anything close to one. Pakistani officials are publicly "downplaying chances of war resuming," which is either genuine confidence or an attempt to keep both sides from walking away entirely. Probably some of both.

• Putin and Trump spoke for 90 minutes on Wednesday, and Iran came up. The call, initiated by Moscow, covered Ukraine, the Hormuz crisis, and Saturday's assassination attempt on Trump 2SPK Putin, Trump Talk Ukraine, Iran, Assassination Attempt in 90 Minute Call. Putin praised Trump's decision to extend the ceasefire and called it "correct." Trump "outlined his assessment of the military confrontation that has ended" and described Iran's current situation as difficult 2SPK Putin, Trump Talk Ukraine, Iran, Assassination Attempt in 90 Minute Call. The framing from the Russian side is notable: Moscow is treating the military phase as finished and pushing toward a negotiated resolution. That aligns with Araghchi's visit to Moscow on Monday. Russia is positioning itself as a back-channel to Tehran that Washington might find useful, if Trump wants to use it.

• Israel and the US are not fully aligned, and an Israeli minister just said so on tape. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar told a closed meeting of the American Friends of Likud group that Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment since the joint strikes began, directly contradicting Washington's public framing 5AAM Israeli foreign minister acknowledges differences with Trump over Iran. He also acknowledged "disagreements" with Trump over Iran, while insisting that "in the big picture, we see things eye to eye" 5AAM Israeli foreign minister acknowledges differences with Trump over Iran. The recording was obtained by Yedioth Ahronoth. Saar simultaneously claimed toppling Iran's leadership was not an official war goal, while also saying Israel "will act" if an opportunity for regime change emerges. That is not a coherent position. It is a politician trying to hold two audiences at once and getting caught doing it.

• Saudi Arabia's Aramco has suspended LPG shipments through all of May. The Juaymah export facility, already damaged before the war began, took additional fire damage during hostilities and repairs have not been completed 8CRD Aramco halts LPG shipments through May over war damage to Saudi export hubs. Kpler analysts estimate Juaymah handles around 3.5 percent of global seaborne LPG exports 8CRD Aramco halts LPG shipments through May over war damage to Saudi export hubs. Crucially, sources say deliveries will not resume even if Hormuz reopens, because the physical infrastructure is not operational 8CRD Aramco halts LPG shipments through May over war damage to Saudi export hubs. India is bearing the sharpest end of this: LPG is a primary cooking fuel for hundreds of millions of Indian households, and alternative supplies are expensive and limited. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan warned this week that markets are underestimating how long energy flows will take to normalise 8CRD Aramco halts LPG shipments through May over war damage to Saudi export hubs.

• The Minab school strike is approaching two months of official silence, and former US officials are now speaking out. A missile hit a primary school in Minab on the opening day of the war, killing 168 people including around 110 children 18BBC Weeks of silence over Iran school strike highly unusual, former US officials say. The Pentagon has said only that the incident is "under investigation." Five former US officials, including a retired senior Air Force legal adviser, told the BBC this week that the silence is "strikingly" outside historical norms: in three comparable past incidents, the Pentagon had released substantial information within a month 18BBC Weeks of silence over Iran school strike highly unusual, former US officials say. Trump initially blamed Iran for the strike, then said he had not seen video evidence of a US Tomahawk hitting the adjacent military base, then said Iran had Tomahawk missiles 18BBC Weeks of silence over Iran school strike highly unusual, former US officials say. None of those statements holds up. The longer this goes without accountability, the worse the eventual disclosure will land.

The numbers in today's sources tell a clear story. Brent is at $115 per barrel, up about 65 percent from pre-war levels 7RTN Trump mulling extended Iran blockade as approval rating falls, media. US pump prices are at a four-year high at $4.20 per gallon 7RTN Trump mulling extended Iran blockade as approval rating falls, media. Commodity food prices are up 6.1 percent since late February according to a new UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) monitoring platform 9AAM Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens chip, fertilizer supply. Markets are not pricing in a near-term resolution. The blockade extension signal from the Journal will, if anything, push energy prices higher in the short term. The one thing markets may be getting wrong: the assumption that a deal means an immediate price drop. Between mine-clearing timelines, war-risk insurance premiums, and the Juaymah facility sitting offline regardless of Hormuz status, the supply recovery will be slower than any headline will suggest.

American drivers are now paying $4.20 per gallon on average, the highest in four years, and Trump's approval on cost of living has collapsed to 22 percent 7RTN Trump mulling extended Iran blockade as approval rating falls, media. That number is the political floor that matters. Republican business allies are openly warning the White House that sustained energy prices could cost the party the midterms 7RTN Trump mulling extended Iran blockade as approval rating falls, media. In the UK, the Hormuz crisis is described in Al Jazeera's reporting as hitting the country "particularly badly" due to its exposure to gas-indexed energy contracts, though the source articles do not provide updated UK-specific figures today. The fertilizer supply disruption now has a concrete timeline attached: UNCTAD confirmed that only 11 fertilizer vessels have transited the strait since late February, with 44 ships stranded in the Gulf 9AAM Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens chip, fertilizer supply. Western farmers planting this season are drawing down existing stocks. The price consequences will arrive at Western supermarkets in 2027, not 2026, but the window to avert them is closing.