TRUMP REJECTS IRAN'S PROPOSAL AND THE WHITE HOUSE KILLS THE WAR POWERS CLOCK

• Israel is formally bracing for war to resume, possibly as early as next week. Channel 12 reported Israeli cabinet ministers believe the US may need to "give Iran a push" through fresh strikes on gas and energy facilities, and that negotiations could collapse at the start of next week 12TOI Israel said bracing for Iran fighting to resume soon, as Trump briefed on military options. The Israeli Defense Minister said Israel "may soon be required to act again." CENTCOM has separately requested deployment of the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile, known formally as the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), because Iran has moved its ballistic missile launchers beyond the range of existing US Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) 12TOI Israel said bracing for Iran fighting to resume soon, as Trump briefed on military options 14RTN US military wants untested hypersonic missiles deployed against Iran, Bloomberg. The request is pending and no deployment has been confirmed, but the operational logic is stark: the US is running out of range on some of its primary strike systems 14RTN US military wants untested hypersonic missiles deployed against Iran, Bloomberg.

• A senior Israeli military official said today that if Iran's enriched uranium is not physically removed from the country, the entire war will have been "one big failure." The officer, speaking anonymously, said Iran retains over 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, enough for 11 bombs if further processed, and that without diplomatic removal of that stockpile, Israel will need to launch another operation 1TOI IDF official says Iran war will be ‘one big failure’ if enriched uranium not removed. This is the Israeli military telling you, on the record, that the current war has not achieved its central objective. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff said separately that every goal "defined by the political echelon" has been achieved, which is either a contradiction or a very careful parsing of what the political echelon actually defined 1TOI IDF official says Iran war will be ‘one big failure’ if enriched uranium not removed.

• The UAE formally exited OPEC today, and the timing is not a coincidence. Abu Dhabi has been chafing under production quotas for years, but pulling the trigger now signals a deliberate alignment with Washington's interest in breaking the cartel's pricing power 4AJE UAE exit from OPEC signals closer alignment with US interests, experts say. Analysts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) estimate the UAE could add around 2 million barrels per day to global supply once the strait reopens 4AJE UAE exit from OPEC signals closer alignment with US interests, experts say. That is medium-term relief, not immediate. Brent settled around $108 today, down sharply from the $126 high two days ago, which suggests markets read the UAE move as a genuine eventual stabiliser, though oil remains roughly 55 percent above pre-war levels 4AJE UAE exit from OPEC signals closer alignment with US interests, experts say.

• Israel deployed its Iron Beam laser air defense system to the UAE during the fighting, along with the Spectro drone detection system and an Iron Dome battery, according to the Financial Times and Axios 11TOI Israel sent laser system to UAE to help intercept Iranian missiles and drones, report. This is the first publicly disclosed operational deployment of Iron Beam outside Israel, and the first confirmed case of Israeli weapons systems being manned by Israeli troops on Gulf soil. The systems sent were described as "mostly prototypes," deployed at the pace the war demanded rather than waiting for full integration 11TOI Israel sent laser system to UAE to help intercept Iranian missiles and drones, report. The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, have just produced their most tangible security cooperation to date, in wartime conditions and with Israeli boots on the ground.

• Bahrain is conducting a political purge. King Hamad ordered a fresh round of citizenship revocations today, days after stripping 69 people, including family members, for "sympathising" with Iranian attacks 6AAM Bahrain king orders more citizenship revocations over ‘support’ for Iran attacks. The king publicly questioned how elected Shia lawmakers could oppose the citizenship legislation, and parliament's speaker said any member supporting Iran's actions has no place in the chamber 6AAM Bahrain king orders more citizenship revocations over ‘support’ for Iran attacks. This is the Gulf's domestic sectarian fault line under active pressure. Bahrain has a Shia majority population governed by a Sunni monarchy, and the war has turned a chronic tension into an acute political crisis.

Oil pulled back hard today. Brent dropped from Thursday's $126 high to settle around $108, a move of roughly 15 percent in 48 hours. That looks like relief, but read it carefully. The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) remains at 75, nearly double its pre-war baseline, meaning options traders are still pricing in enormous uncertainty. Defence stocks are flat to slightly down across the board, which is interesting: Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman are all sitting well below their pre-war April 1 levels. Markets are not pricing in a profitable new bombing campaign. The Israeli TA-125 index is up about 9 percent over the past month, which tells you Israeli investors are more optimistic about the war's trajectory than anyone saying it publicly. Gold at $4,644 and silver up sharply on the week suggest safe-haven demand has not gone away. The overall picture is markets cautiously relieved by the UAE news and Trump's deal rhetoric, but not convinced anything is actually resolved.

The most concrete number in today's sources: US pump prices hit $4.33 per gallon, against $2.98 the day before the war began 4AJE UAE exit from OPEC signals closer alignment with US interests, experts say. That is a 45 percent increase in 63 days. Trump said today that prices will fall "below what they were" when the war ends, which is a political commitment he will struggle to honour given the structural damage to Gulf energy infrastructure.

The food system warning deserves more attention than it is getting. Yara's chief executive told the BBC that the fertiliser supply disruption is costing the equivalent of 10 billion meals per week globally due to nitrogen fertiliser shortages 13BBC Fertiliser boss says Iran war puts 10 billion meals a week at risk. Fertiliser prices are up 80 percent since the war began. The Food and Drink Federation has forecast UK food inflation reaching 10 percent by year-end 13BBC Fertiliser boss says Iran war puts 10 billion meals a week at risk. European airlines are already cutting capacity: Lufthansa has cancelled 20,000 flights, Transavia has cut schedules through June, and jet fuel prices in Europe are up more than 105 percent year-on-year 7CRD Hormuz chokepoint: War, blockade, and the unraveling of global energy flows. None of these effects reverse quickly even if a deal is signed tomorrow.