TRUMP SAYS "NOT SATISFIED," IRAN SAYS "LIKELY WAR"

• Israeli military chief Eyal Zamir held "intensive contacts" with CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper on potential new strikes against Iran, per Israel's Channel 12 3AAM Israeli army chief, US CENTCOM head hold talks on possible action against Iran: Report. The reported target list includes energy networks, steel plants, and oil and gas reserves. The US is separately considering a limited strike designed to push Iran toward a nuclear agreement, though no timing or final decision has been made 3AAM Israeli army chief, US CENTCOM head hold talks on possible action against Iran: Report. This is the planning conversation the ceasefire was supposed to make unnecessary. That it is happening at all tells you where both militaries think this is heading.

• Iran has drafted permanent Hormuz management legislation, and the framing is maximalist. Israeli ships are banned forever. Ships from "hostile countries" must pay war reparations for transit rights. All others need Iranian permits 4AAM Iran drafts plan to regulate Strait of Hormuz transit: Deputy parliament speaker. This is Iran doing the opposite of what the US needs from any deal, and doing it through parliamentary procedure rather than just rhetoric. Washington's Treasury Department (Office of Foreign Assets Control, or OFAC) simultaneously threatened sanctions on any shipping company paying Iran's existing transit fees 10CRD US threatens sanctions on ships paying for Hormuz passage as Trump celebrates high-seas piracy. The two sides are now building competing legal frameworks around the same waterway.

• China formally blocked US sanctions on five Chinese petrochemical firms for buying Iranian oil, invoking its 2021 Blocking Rules and the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law 16GLT MOFCOM issues a ban, requesting not to recognize, enforce and comply with US sanctions on five Chinese firms. Beijing's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) issued the prohibition order with immediate effect, explicitly instructing Chinese entities not to recognise or comply with the US designations 16GLT MOFCOM issues a ban, requesting not to recognize, enforce and comply with US sanctions on five Chinese firms. This is not a diplomatic protest. It is a legal counter-measure that directly shields Iranian oil revenue from US pressure. Worth watching: it signals Beijing is systematically dismantling the blockade's economic reach, at least within its own jurisdiction.

• Iran struck 16 US military bases across 8 countries, leaving many "virtually unusable," according to a CNN investigation citing satellite images and interviews 6AAM Iran strikes damaged 16 US military sites in Middle East, report claims 12CRD Iranian strikes heavily damage majority of US military bases in West Asia. Specific confirmed losses include an E-3 Sentry surveillance aircraft at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, radar systems at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, and communications equipment at Camp Arifjan in Kuwait 12CRD Iranian strikes heavily damage majority of US military bases in West Asia. The actual war cost figure is reportedly $40-50 billion, nearly double the $25 billion Pentagon figure given to Congress 6AAM Iran strikes damaged 16 US military sites in Middle East, report claims. This story surfaced two days ago but is still being absorbed. The key line comes from a Gulf official: US bases, once a deterrent, are now viewed as "sitting targets" 12CRD Iranian strikes heavily damage majority of US military bases in West Asia.

• Ukraine is quietly winning friends and influence from the Iran war. Zelensky has signed drone expertise deals with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, all of which have been hit by Iranian missiles and drones 1BBC The Iran war has strengthened Ukraine in surprising ways. Could a ceasefire with Russia be closer?. Ukraine's battle-tested knowledge of countering exactly the kind of drones Russia supplies, and Iran uses, has turned into a marketable defence product. Kyiv is also benefiting from higher Russian oil revenues in the short term, but the bigger strategic play is positioning Ukraine as an indispensable defence partner for wealthy Gulf states before any Russia peace talks begin 1BBC The Iran war has strengthened Ukraine in surprising ways. Could a ceasefire with Russia be closer?. It is a deft hand, and most Western coverage has missed it entirely.

Brent fell back to $108 by May 1 after touching $126 on Thursday 18ABC Iran offers new proposal to end war with United States, and the snapshot data shows crude softening slightly across the week. But read that drop carefully: it came after Iran submitted a new proposal, giving markets a brief hope of progress. Trump's rejection of that proposal came after the snapshot. The direction of travel resumes upward. What is genuinely interesting is the divergence between oil volatility (OVX at 75, still elevated but down from 91 at the start of April) and equity markets, which are grinding calmly higher. The S&P 500 is up nearly 10 percent since April 1. Markets are pricing in ceasefire durability, not the escalatory signals coming out of Tehran and Tel Aviv this weekend. That gap between what markets believe and what the military and diplomatic wires are saying is the trade worth watching.

Spirit Airlines ceased all operations on Saturday, the first US carrier of its size to liquidate in twenty years 11TOI US’s Spirit Airlines goes bankrupt amid Iran war price fuel surge. Jet fuel has doubled to around $4.51 a gallon against Spirit's business plan assumption of $2.24, and no creditor was willing to absorb that gap 14AJE Spirit Airlines begins ‘wind-down’, cancels all flights over fuel crisis. Around 810,000 seats booked through May 15 are now cancelled. Trump tried and failed to arrange a $500 million bailout. The collapse will push fares higher on routes Spirit served, hitting exactly the budget travellers who can least afford it. JetBlue and Frontier both rose on the news, which tells you who benefits. This is the fuel shock's first big-name domestic casualty, and it will not be the last. Lufthansa has already cut 20,000 flights; European carriers are not far behind.