TRUMP PICKS THE BLOCKADE AS HIS INDEFINITE IRAN STRATEGY

The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that Trump chose a third path in a Monday Situation Room meeting: not more bombs, not withdrawal, but an open-ended naval blockade 7RTN Trump mulling extended Iran blockade as approval rating falls, media 15CRD Trump orders aides to prep for ‘extended blockade’ on Iran: Report. The bet is that Iran's economy breaks first. The problem is that Trump's own political coalition is fraying: his approval rating is at 34 percent, only 22 percent approve of his cost-of-living handling, and Republican business allies are openly warning that $4.20-per-gallon gas could cost the party the midterms 7RTN Trump mulling extended Iran blockade as approval rating falls, media. The IRGC Navy responded the same day, warning that "giant US warships will be burned and taken out of service" if aggression continues 15CRD Trump orders aides to prep for ‘extended blockade’ on Iran: Report. Both sides are doubling down simultaneously.

Foreign Minister Dar and army chief Munir are personally engaged, with Munir having spoken directly to Trump multiple times 11AAM Pakistan working silently to find 'new formula' to break US-Iran deadlock on Strait of Hormuz, nuclear program: Sources. Islamabad describes the process as "back-channel exchanges of formulas and counter-formulas," which is a polite way of saying nothing has landed 11AAM Pakistan working silently to find 'new formula' to break US-Iran deadlock on Strait of Hormuz, nuclear program: Sources. The structural gap is the sequencing dispute: Iran wants Hormuz and the blockade addressed before nuclear talks, the US insists nuclear must be part of any deal from the start. Pakistan is hunting for a "middle formula" and has not found one 11AAM Pakistan working silently to find 'new formula' to break US-Iran deadlock on Strait of Hormuz, nuclear program: Sources.

Gideon Saar told a closed Likud fundraiser meeting that Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment since the joint strikes began, directly contradicting the US public line 5AAM Israeli foreign minister acknowledges differences with Trump over Iran. He also acknowledged "disagreements" with Trump over Iran while claiming alignment on the big picture. In the same breath he said toppling the Iranian government is not an official Israeli war goal, and that Israel "will act" if a regime-change opportunity arises. The recording, obtained by Yedioth Ahronoth, is not a good look for alliance messaging discipline 5AAM Israeli foreign minister acknowledges differences with Trump over Iran.

The Juaymah export terminal took war damage and will not ship LPG through the end of May even if the strait reopens, because the physical facility is not operational 8CRD Aramco halts LPG shipments through May over war damage to Saudi export hubs. Juaymah handles roughly 3.5 percent of global seaborne LPG exports, and India (where LPG is a primary cooking fuel for hundreds of millions of households) is absorbing the sharpest impact 8CRD Aramco halts LPG shipments through May over war damage to Saudi export hubs. Saudi Finance Minister al-Jadaan warned this week that markets are underestimating how long energy flows will take to normalise 8CRD Aramco halts LPG shipments through May over war damage to Saudi export hubs. The headline "Hormuz reopens" will not mean supply snaps back.

168 people, roughly 110 of them children, were killed when a missile hit a primary school in Minab on the opening day of the war 18BBC Weeks of silence over Iran school strike highly unusual, former US officials say. The Pentagon has said only that the incident is "under investigation." Five former US officials including a retired senior Air Force legal adviser told the BBC this week that the silence is "strikingly" outside historical norms: three comparable past incidents each produced substantial public information within a month 18BBC Weeks of silence over Iran school strike highly unusual, former US officials say. Trump has cycled through three contradictory explanations, none of which holds up 18BBC Weeks of silence over Iran school strike highly unusual, former US officials say. The longer this takes, the worse the eventual disclosure will land.