HORMUZ IS "OPEN" BUT NOBODY IS RUSHING IN

Foreign Minister Araghchi's announcement sent markets into relief-rally mode, but the world's major shipping associations are not moving yet. BIMCO advised members to "consider avoiding the area" because the mine threat in the traffic separation scheme remains unresolved, 1AJE Shipping firms seek clarifications before crossing Hormuz 2BBC Oil prices plunge as Iran says Strait of Hormuz 'open' during ceasefire and the US Navy issued its own advisory echoing that concern. 1AJE Shipping firms seek clarifications before crossing Hormuz The IMO says it is still "verifying" whether the announcement even meets freedom-of-navigation standards. 1AJE Shipping firms seek clarifications before crossing Hormuz Hapag-Lloyd put an honest timeline on it: 24 to 36 hours to resolve open questions before any transit attempt, 1AJE Shipping firms seek clarifications before crossing Hormuz which makes this a diplomatic signal aimed at the talks rather than an operational reopening. The IEA's Birol said it best: even after ships start moving, Gulf oil production recovery could take up to two years given damage to fields, refineries, and pipelines on both sides. 13CRD Persian Gulf oil production can take two years to recover from war: IEA chief

Four sources told Axios the US is weighing unfreezing $20 billion in Iranian assets in exchange for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile, with Iran having countered a $6 billion offer by asking for $27 billion. 5SPK US Mulls Unlocking $20Bln in Iranian Funds in Exchange for Enriched Uranium - Reports The gap is narrowing. Proposals on the table include shipping uranium to a third country, down-blending it inside Iran under international oversight, a voluntary enrichment moratorium, and closure of underground nuclear facilities. 5SPK US Mulls Unlocking $20Bln in Iranian Funds in Exchange for Enriched Uranium - Reports Whether ballistic missiles and proxy networks are part of any final text remains unresolved, which is not a small thing. A second round of Islamabad talks is reportedly likely for April 19, and the Lebanon ceasefire expires around April 22, meaning the negotiating window is measured in days, not weeks. 5SPK US Mulls Unlocking $20Bln in Iranian Funds in Exchange for Enriched Uranium - Reports

BBC Verify tracked at least four vessels departing Iranian ports across the US blockade line since Monday, three of them under active US sanctions, now broadcasting positions off India's coast. 6BBC Some Iran-linked ships have crossed US blockade, data suggests CENTCOM's response when asked: "nothing to add." 6BBC Some Iran-linked ships have crossed US blockade, data suggests That is not a denial. At the same time, Joint Chiefs Chairman General Caine announced US forces worldwide will pursue any vessel providing material support to Iran, explicitly extending enforcement into the Pacific. 8RTN US to target Iran-linked ships worldwide, top general So the blockade is simultaneously leaking at the choke point and expanding in scope globally, which is a coherent strategy only if the global expansion compensates for what is slipping through Hormuz.

The House rejected a War Powers resolution to withdraw US forces from Iran by a single vote, 213 to 214. 19APW House rejects effort to withdraw US forces from the Iran war One day earlier, 40 of 47 Democratic senators voted to block military bulldozer sales to Israel, the highest Democratic opposition to an Israel arms transfer on record. 18AJE Senate vote on arms sale shows ‘massive cracks’ in US support for Israel The 60-day War Powers Act deadline hits at the end of April, gas is at $7 in some states, and 13 service members have died. Republicans are holding the line but the margins leave no room for drift. 19APW House rejects effort to withdraw US forces from the Iran war

USA Today published photos of near-empty meal trays aboard the USS Tripoli and the USS Abraham Lincoln, alongside accounts from sailors warning that supplies "are going to get really low." 16GLT US troops in Middle East reportedly face food shortages, mail suspension as morale slips; Exposing lack of preparation for prolonged Iran operation: Chinese expert Mail to military addresses in the region has been suspended since April, and family members have spent thousands on care packages that never arrived. 16GLT US troops in Middle East reportedly face food shortages, mail suspension as morale slips; Exposing lack of preparation for prolonged Iran operation: Chinese expert This is the kind of story that moves domestic opinion faster than any casualty figure, and it will get louder.