TRUMP'S CAMP DAVID CABINET MEETING, WITH NO ENDGAME IN SIGHT

• Iran disabled two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz that attempted to use the US-preferred southern route, while four others immediately reversed course 5MHR Two violating oil tankers disabled in Strait of Hormuz: IRGC3GDN Iran strikes tankers under US escort in Hormuz strait as Trump gathers cabinet to discuss war. The Persian Gulf Strait Affairs Authority (PGSA) simultaneously announced that transit remains suspended "due to continued aggressive actions of US military forces" 4MHR Strait of Hormuz remains suspended due to US aggression: PGSA. The strait's closure is now in its third week of near-total effect. The strategic precedent Tehran is cementing, that all navigation requires Iranian approval, is the thing that matters long after any ceasefire.

• The IRGC struck Ahmad Al-Jaber Air Base in Kuwait with suicide drones, targeting fighter jet shelters, satellite communication systems, and logistics warehouses 7TSN Iran’s Army Hits US Military Facilities in Kuwait6AJE IRGC strikes US targets in Kuwait a day after US hits Iran: Latest events. This was framed as phase 27 of Iran's Operation Thunderbolt, specifically in retaliation for the US strike on a residential home on Qeshm Island. Kuwait's defence ministry said it shot down Iranian drones 3GDN Iran strikes tankers under US escort in Hormuz strait as Trump gathers cabinet to discuss war, but confirmed details of damage diverge between Iranian state media and Kuwaiti official statements. Single-source caution applies to the specific infrastructure claims, though the attack itself is confirmed by multiple sources.

• Saudi Arabia's 14-nation maritime coalition is now formally announced, with Bahrain, Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Qatar, Jordan, and others signed on 8TOI Saudis said to gear up for ground invasion against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen11CNN Saudi Arabia says 14 countries backing maritime alliance to protect shipping routes. Crucially, Saudi forces are simultaneously repositioning away from eastern Yemen in what Yemeni sources describe as preparation for a ground offensive 8TOI Saudis said to gear up for ground invasion against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. If Riyadh launches a land campaign into Yemen while running a naval coalition in the Red Sea while co-signing strikes in Iraq, it is executing a three-front military strategy against Iran's proxy network simultaneously. That is an enormous bet for a country whose own oil infrastructure has been under sustained attack.

• The IRGC reportedly urged Hamas delegates not to sign the Gaza disarmament deal during meetings in Tehran, according to Axios via a source familiar with the matter 9JPO IRGC officials urged Hamas not to sign disarmament deal during late-stage negotiations - report. Hamas chose to sign anyway. This is the most under-reported detail in the entire Gaza story: Iran tried to veto the deal and was ignored by its own proxy. That is either a sign of genuine Hamas autonomy, a sign of how badly Iran's regional influence has degraded under five months of war, or both.

• Northern Iraq is in a full-blown fuel crisis. Iranian strikes on Kurdistan Region energy infrastructure have reduced electricity supply to five or six hours a day, pushed black-market cooking gas prices more than double, and forced motorists to queue overnight for petrol 13AAM Fuel crisis grips northern Iraq after attacks halt energy production. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) imposed price ceilings that failed to ease shortages. This is the war's humanitarian toll in a US-aligned region that most Western coverage is not tracking.

Brent settled at $90.12, up slightly from Thursday but well below last week's $96.78 [[market snapshot]]. The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) at 62.90 is actually falling even as attacks multiplied, down from 68 a week ago. That gap between rising kinetic activity and falling oil volatility is the market saying it has priced this war in and is no longer surprised by escalation. Whether that is wisdom or complacency is the right question to ask.

Gold slipped back slightly to $4,106 from $4,162 yesterday, but remains elevated relative to a month ago [[market snapshot]]. The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to 4.741 percent, its highest in this snapshot series, which is the bond market pricing a combination of war spending, inflation persistence, and the possibility that the Camp David meeting produces something that costs money. The S&P 500 ticked up regardless. Equity markets and bond markets are telling you different things about the same war.

Trump's approval on Iran has fallen to 28 percent overall, with 37 percent of Republicans now saying the war was not worth fighting 15APW Iran war poll: Trump approval declines slightly, AP-NORC finds. That last number is the one that moves congressional Republicans, and congressional Republicans are the ones who will decide whether Trump has political cover to keep fighting through November. The Senate's 49-50 rejection of the war powers resolution shows the margin is razor thin 3GDN Iran strikes tankers under US escort in Hormuz strait as Trump gathers cabinet to discuss war. One more senator shifting, one more bad polling month, and that calculus changes.

At the pump, RBOB gasoline futures sit at $3.11, up from $2.94 at the start of July [[market snapshot]]. The Hormuz closure is the structural cause, and with no credible reopening timeline, the direction of travel at the forecourt is one-way. Heating oil at $4.10 is a quiet signal that energy traders are already thinking about the coming winter [[market snapshot]], with European gas alternatives constrained by the Damietta attack earlier this week.