THE MUSCAT TALKS ARE TWO DIFFERENT CONVERSATIONS HAPPENING IN THE SAME ROOM

The US wants a public Iranian statement that Hormuz is open, that shooting at ships was a mistake, and that all channels are toll-free, or the meeting ends badly for Iran. 7CRD US issues 'ultimatum' that Iran commit to end tanker attacks in Hormuz 11BBC US wants Iran to pledge to stop shooting at ships in Strait of Hormuz Iran's UN ambassador responded that strait control "rests exclusively with Iran" and outside interference violates the MoU. 15APW Unclaimed airstrikes hit Iran after US ends its attacks These positions are not close. And yet the US sent Vance, Rubio, Witkoff, and Kushner to Oman, which is not nothing. 11BBC US wants Iran to pledge to stop shooting at ships in Strait of Hormuz The real ask appears to be narrower than a full MoU revival: one public security statement, with the harder sovereignty and fee questions parked for later. There is even a reported back-channel admission from Iranian counterparts that the tanker attacks were a mistake by a "rogue internal group," which conveniently gives both sides a ladder to climb down. 11BBC US wants Iran to pledge to stop shooting at ships in Strait of Hormuz Whether anyone in Tehran with actual guns honours whatever Araghchi signs is, as always, the real question.

His first major public statement called avenging "the blood of all the martyrs" a national demand that "must certainly be carried out," and specifically invited "individuals among the free people of the world" to each carry out "a part of this divine mission." 8AAM Iran's supreme leader vows to avenge slain predecessor Ali Khamenei 5AJE Hormuz shipping in focus as Iran-US rhetoric heats up That last line is not rhetorical: it is a call for distributed, non-state action. It was issued while his foreign minister was boarding a plane to Oman for de-escalation talks. The gap between those two signals tells you everything about how fractured Iranian decision-making actually is right now.

CNN and the Institute for Science and International Security analysed satellite imagery showing construction activity at Parchin and Pickaxe Mountain: concrete mixer trucks, mesh coverings over strike craters, active work. 13JPO Iran rehabilitating damaged nuclear sites, satellite imagery shows - report The MoU requires Iran to maintain the status quo at all nuclear sites. 13JPO Iran rehabilitating damaged nuclear sites, satellite imagery shows - report This matters for two reasons: it suggests reconstruction started before Trump declared the ceasefire over, and it hands Washington a documented grievance that is entirely separate from the Hormuz dispute. If US officials start publicly naming Parchin and Pickaxe Mountain as violations, that is the signal the nuclear file is being reopened as a strike justification.

Britain's deputy PM called compulsory tolls "disastrous," but cabinet colleagues acknowledged that fees for specific navigational services are legal under international law and exist in the Malacca Strait and the English Channel. 12GDN Europe considering proposals to allow navigational fees in strait of Hormuz Oman has drafted a proposal, built with British lawyers, adapting the Malacca model to Hormuz. Iran's London embassy separately signalled interest in a Cambridge University proposal for a "transparent service fee embedded within an inclusive regional order." 12GDN Europe considering proposals to allow navigational fees in strait of Hormuz The gap between "compulsory toll" and "voluntary navigational service fee consistent with international law" is where a deal might eventually live. It is not there yet, but someone is doing the legal architecture.

The caretaker defence minister told parliament the country's drone production grew threefold even while strikes were ongoing. 4TTM Iran tripled drone production during US-Israeli war: caretaker defense minister This is an Iranian government claim and should be read accordingly. But it tracks with what US and Israeli officials have said privately about manufacturing resilience. If accurate, the air campaign degraded Iran's existing inventory without touching its production capacity. The drones that broke the ceasefire came from somewhere, and they will keep coming from somewhere.