IRANIAN TANKERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE BLOCKADE

Three Iranian tankers (the Diona, Hero II, and Sonia I) have crossed the US blockade line carrying a combined 3.8 million barrels of crude, the first Iranian oil exports in two months 5BBM Iran sends tankers loaded with oil past US military blockade. The US Navy has not intercepted them. That is a deliberate signal: the blockade is unwinding in practice before the ink is dry on Friday. The MOU grants immediate oil export waivers as the only significant pre-deal concession Iran receives, with the logic being that transparent exports create monitoring leverage 4FOX Trump administration unveils sweeping terms of proposed Iran agreement. Whether that leverage actually works across 60 days of nuclear talks is the question the administration is not answering.

This is the story getting less attention than it deserves. US intelligence agencies have concluded that as a direct result of this war, Iran can now effectively close Hormuz at will, permanently 13CNN US intel assesses Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz at will from now on | CNN Politics. One source told CNN: "We have now handed Iran de facto control over the strait, a weapon more powerful than any nuke" 13CNN US intel assesses Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz at will from now on | CNN Politics. Iran still has its missiles, drones, fast boats, and mining capability, and its military-industrial base is rebuilding faster than Washington anticipated 13CNN US intel assesses Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz at will from now on | CNN Politics. The MOU guarantees open transit for 60 days. It does not change the underlying military reality those 60 days are resting on.

Iran's military counted 84 ceasefire violations in Lebanon in 48 hours and has issued an explicit warning of a "strong response" if attacks continue 12AAM Iran’s military warns Israel over continued attacks in southern Lebanon. Israeli forces are simultaneously signalling readiness to stay in Lebanon indefinitely at Netanyahu's discretion 9AAM Israeli army signals longer stay in Lebanon despite US-Iran agreement: Report. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi has stated that Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon is "an integral part" of the agreement 9AAM Israeli army signals longer stay in Lebanon despite US-Iran agreement: Report. Those two positions cannot both be true at once, and the next 24 hours before Friday's signing are the highest-risk window for an incident that triggers suspension clauses.

Trump said at the G7 he would send the MOU to Congress, but as of compile time no briefing has been scheduled and Republican senators say they have not seen the text 10TOI US lawmakers in the dark on Iran deal as Trump says he will send it to Congress. The Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015 requires any such agreement to be submitted before sanctions can be eased, handing lawmakers a lever to block provisions 10TOI US lawmakers in the dark on Iran deal as Trump says he will send it to Congress. Senior Republicans are already restless. This is a slow-burn problem: it does not explode on Friday, but it does not go away after Friday either.

Iran asked for $400 billion in reparations. What it got is a private investment vehicle, not a government grant program, with Gulf, Asian, and Western companies already pledging more than half the $300 billion target 7CRD Iran - US MoU includes $300bn 'private fund' for Tehran: Report. The fund does not get created until a final nuclear deal is reached, which means no money flows until the harder conversation succeeds. Separately, Iran's negotiating team has formally disputed Bloomberg's leaked MOU text, calling its Hormuz clauses "clearly inaccurate" and "incomplete" 8TSN Source Refutes Bloomberg’s Alleged Text of MoU as Inaccurate. Most of what Western media has reported on specific deal terms is based on leaks one party is now calling wrong. Hold the details loosely until Friday's text drops.